ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence returns to uptrend, up 1.3% to 120.9

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jan-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.3% to 120.9 in the week ended 28 January. Results were mixed at a disaggregated level, with three out of five sub-components showing an increase. Consumers grew more optimistic about both current and future economic conditions, with the indices rising by 4.0% and 4.2% respectively. Both series reversed losses from the previous week and are sitting comfortably above their long-term averages. Indeed, sentiment toward future economic conditions is the highest since late 2013. Views towards financial conditions were mixed, with the current sub-index extending its losses from the previous week, falling a further 1.6% to 103, while future finances rose slightly by 0.5% to 126.8 after two consecutive weekly falls.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Strike action almost extinct

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Original article by Anna Patty
The Age – Page: 1 : 30-Jan-18

A report produced by the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work shows that there has been a 97 per cent decline in industrial action since the 1970s. The author of the report, Jim Stanford, says the sharp decline in industrial action has contributed to the low growth in wages over recent years. However, Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry CEO James Pearson argues that a range of other factors affect growth in wages, while ACTU secretary Sally McManus says Stanford’s report highlights the need for industrial relations reform.

CORPORATES
THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, ACTU, GRIFFITH UNIVERSITY, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP

Job growth brings end to nation’s income recession

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Jan-18

Leading economists Chris Richardson and Saul Eslake say a number of factors suggest that Australian wages will begin to rise after 18 months of stagnant growth. They cite factors such as strong growth in jobs during 2017 and a growing shortage of skilled labour. Eslake also notes that real net national disposable income per capita is now increasing at a faster pace than real gross domestic product per capita. He adds that while wages growth appears to have bottomed, the official unemployment rate of 5.5 per cent will need to fall before there is sustained growth in wages.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, STANDARD AND POOR’S FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Consumers are in surprisingly sunny mood

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 41 : 25-Jan-18

UBS forcasts that Australian retail sales will rise by 2.6 per cent overall in 2018, while growth in discretionary spending is expected to slow to just two per cent. Craig James of CommSec notes that consumers were upbeat leading into 2018, citing factors such as historically low interest rates, the strong growth in jobs in 2017 and the recent rise in the value of the Australian dollar. However, the ANZ/Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index has eased 3.3 per cent to 119.9, although consumer confidence is still higher that its long-term average of 112.9.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, NONI B LIMITED – ASX NBL, ADAIRS LIMITED – ASX ADH, LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX LOV, RETAIL FOOD GROUP LIMITED – ASX RFG, THE PAS GROUP LIMITED – ASX PGR, AUSTRALIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED – ASX API, PRICELINE PHARMACY, MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED – ASX MHJ, EMMA AND ROE, KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX KMD, ARNHEM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Inflation Expectations unchanged at 4.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jan-18

Australians expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for December 2017. This is unchanged for a second straight month, although it is up 0.3% from December 2016. The increase in Inflation Expectations over the last year has been driven by significant increases in the two resource intensive states of Queensland and Western Australia as the mining industry has recovered strongly. However, Inflation Expectations remain well below the seven-year average of 5.0%. Analyses of Inflation expectations by Federal voting intention shows that ALP supporters (4.6%) have inflation expectations just above the national average and clearly higher than L-NP supporters (4.0%) although both increased in December. In contrast, the Inflation Expectations of Greens supporters fell to 4.2%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Miners lead confidence surge

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Original article by Matt Chambers, Sarah-Jane Tasker
The Australian – Page: 15 & 21 : 24-Jan-18

The latest Mining Business Outlook survey by Newport Consulting shows that mining company executives are upbeat about the outlook for commodity prices in 2018. The survey found that 75 per cent of respondents are "cautiously optimistic" and 17 per cent are "very optimistic" about the outlook. Meanwhile, 42 per cent of respondents expect to "moderately" increase spending in 2018, and about 25 per cent intend to hire additional staff. CEOs in the manufacturing, construction and services industries are also positive about the outlook in 2018, according to a separate survey by the Australian Industry Group.

CORPORATES
NEWPORT CONSULTING PTY LTD, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, RESMED INCORPORATED – ASX RMD, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence pulls back after three consecutive increases

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jan-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 3.3% to 119.4 in the week ended 21 January, following three consecutive strong reports. The fall was broad based, with views towards current finances leading the pullback. The current finances sub-index fell a sharp 9.1% to 104.7, partially unwinding gains over the previous three weeks. In comparison, views towards future finances fell a more modest 2.2%, following a 0.2% decline in the week prior. Despite the weekly falls, both sub-indices sit above their long-term average. Households’ pessimism also extended towards the economic outlook. Views around current and future economic conditions dipped 3.6% and 1.3% respectively, although both sub-indices remain elevated compared to recent lows.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Victoria lags amid jobs boom

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Original article by Eryk Bagshaw
The Age – Page: 1 : 19-Jan-18

Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows that 393,000 jobs were created during 2017, including 35,000 in December. The economy has recorded 15 successive months of jobs growth, and 2017 was the first calendar year in which the number of jobs increased each month since the ABS began releasing monthly data in 1978. The labour force participation rate rose to 65.7 per cent in December, but the unemployment rate increased from 5.4 per cent to 5.5 per cent. Victoria’s unemployment rate rose to 6.1 per cent, and just 87,000 jobs were created in the state during 2017, compared with 140,000 in New South Wales.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, VICTORIA. DEPT OF TREASURY AND FINANCE, NEW SOUTH WALES. THE TREASURY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Business Confidence jumps 3.3pts in December to 117.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Jan-18

In Australia, Business Confidence rose 3.3pts (+2.9%) to 117.4 in December 2017, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey, after the Federal Government won two critical by-elections to retain a governing majority. Businesses are the most positive heading into a new year since 2013, with 57.3% (up 3ppts) of businesses saying now is a "good time to invest in growing the business". Meanwhile, 52.2% (up 2.5ppts) of businesses expect "good times" financially over the next 12 months and 49.8% (up 5.8ppts) say the business will be "better off" financially this time next year. The large increase in Business Confidence in December was driven by rises in confidence in industries such as Manufacturing, Agriculture, forestry & fishing, Education & training, and Information media and telecommunications.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Wage growth slumps to a record 25-year low

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 16-Jan-18

Wage increases for new enterprise agreements struck in the September 2017 quarter were just 2.2 per cent, the lowest increase in 25 years. The number of new agreements struck in the quarter was the lowest since 1995, while wage increases in union enterprise agreements were lower than those in non-union agreements, which is uncommon. The construction sector remained the industry where wage growth was strongest, while real estate and transport were among the sectors where wage growth was lowest.

CORPORATES
GRIFFITH UNIVERSITY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY