ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ABS data shows full-time employment down 50,000 in a month as part-time jobs surge – a real problem!

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Feb-18

Full-time employment fell nearly 50,000 in January according to the ABS employment figures released yesterday and confirm the longer-term trend revealed by the Roy Morgan January employment figures released a week ago. Increases in part-time employment which could mean working anywhere between 1-30 hours per week are driving employment growth at the expense of full-time jobs. As Roy Morgan first revealed last week: "The increase in employment over the past year was driven entirely by an increase in part-time employment which rose 156,000 to 4,191,000 while full-time employment fell 40,000 to 8,045,000".

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Turns out Abbott was right about new jobs

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 15-Feb-18

The general consensus of economists is that the latest labour force data will show that about 15,000 jobs were created in January 2018. This would lift the number of jobs created since the September 2013 federal election to more than 971,000. Prior to the election, then Opposition leader Tony Abbott had committed to increasing the labour force by one million during the Coalition’s first five years in office. The Government is on track to deliver on this pre-election promise well within the five-year time-frame, after the economy added 400,000 jobs in 2017.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BLOOMBERG LP

Low inflation, low unemployment, and Lowe restraint

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 9-Feb-18

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has indicated that an interest rate rise is now more likely than a rate cut. However, he says the central bank is unlikely to tighten monetary policy until inflation rises around the mid-point of its target range of 2-3 per cent and there is a further reduction in the unemployment rate. He has stressed that the Reserve Bank does not need to adjust monetary policy in line with other central banks. Lowe also says the Reserve Bank does not expect its inflation forecasts to be unduly affected by the recent sharemarket volatility.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Half of minimum wage workers are rich

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 8-Feb-18

An analysis of Household Income & Labour Dynamics in Australia data by the Melbourne Institute has concluded that 13 per cent of people on the minimum wage live in households that have the nation’s highest incomes. The analysis suggests that a large proportion people on the minimum wage are students in the 21-34 age group and in many instances live with their parents. The Melbourne Institute also concluded that just 21 per cent of workers live in households for which the minimum wage is the sole source of income.

CORPORATES
UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

2.59m Australians unemployed or under-employed in January

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Feb-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 1.219 million Australians were unemployed (9.1% of the workforce) in January 2018, a decrease of 76,000 (down 0.6%) on a year ago. In addition, 1.371 million Australians (10.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a rise of 264,000 in a year. In total, 2.59 million Australians were unemployed or under-employed in January. The figures also show that 12,236,000 Australians were employed in January – an increase of 116,000 over the past year. The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate of 5.5% for December 2017. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says jobs growth in calendar year 2017 was driven entirely by growth in part-time employment, which may partly explain why Australians do not believe that the monthly ABS unemployment estimates are accurate.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Perfect storm hits apartments market

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 2-Feb-18

Approvals for new homes, apartments and semi-detached dwellings have recorded their biggest monthly fall since July 2012. Approvals for apartments fell in all mainland states in December 2017, while approvals for new attached dwellings declined by 39 per cent. Developers have cited a number of reasons for the decline, including increased investor taxes and tightened consumer credit. However, ANZ economist Daniel Gradwell said the bank is not overly concerned by the figures.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, EVOLVE DEVELOPMENT PTY LTD, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, COSTA FOX, URBAN TASKFORCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MASTER BUILDERS’ ASSOCIATION

Cynical voters struggle to believe official unemployment figures

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 2-Feb-18

Australia’s official unemployment rate fell from 5.7 per cent to 5.5 per cent in 2017, but research by Roy Morgan shows that nearly 60 per cent of Australians think the jobless rate is much higher. The survey found that people in South Australia and Queensland in particular believe that their state’s real unemployment rate is significantly higher than official figures suggest. Roy Morgan estimates that the real unemployment rate is around 10 per cent, and executive director Gary Morgan says politicians, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the general public know that the official figures are "nonsense".

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, SA BEST, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence returns to uptrend, up 1.3% to 120.9

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jan-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.3% to 120.9 in the week ended 28 January. Results were mixed at a disaggregated level, with three out of five sub-components showing an increase. Consumers grew more optimistic about both current and future economic conditions, with the indices rising by 4.0% and 4.2% respectively. Both series reversed losses from the previous week and are sitting comfortably above their long-term averages. Indeed, sentiment toward future economic conditions is the highest since late 2013. Views towards financial conditions were mixed, with the current sub-index extending its losses from the previous week, falling a further 1.6% to 103, while future finances rose slightly by 0.5% to 126.8 after two consecutive weekly falls.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Strike action almost extinct

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Original article by Anna Patty
The Age – Page: 1 : 30-Jan-18

A report produced by the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work shows that there has been a 97 per cent decline in industrial action since the 1970s. The author of the report, Jim Stanford, says the sharp decline in industrial action has contributed to the low growth in wages over recent years. However, Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry CEO James Pearson argues that a range of other factors affect growth in wages, while ACTU secretary Sally McManus says Stanford’s report highlights the need for industrial relations reform.

CORPORATES
THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, ACTU, GRIFFITH UNIVERSITY, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP

Job growth brings end to nation’s income recession

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Jan-18

Leading economists Chris Richardson and Saul Eslake say a number of factors suggest that Australian wages will begin to rise after 18 months of stagnant growth. They cite factors such as strong growth in jobs during 2017 and a growing shortage of skilled labour. Eslake also notes that real net national disposable income per capita is now increasing at a faster pace than real gross domestic product per capita. He adds that while wages growth appears to have bottomed, the official unemployment rate of 5.5 per cent will need to fall before there is sustained growth in wages.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, STANDARD AND POOR’S FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET