ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Exports revive wage hope

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 : 7-Jun-18

The latest GDP data shows that the Australian economy expanded by one per cent in the March quarter and 3.1 per cent year-on-year. The economy recorded nominal growth of 2.2 per cent for the quarter, while real net national disposable income per capita rose by 1.5 per cent. Despite the better-than-expected GDP data, the Reserve Bank is still widely tipped to leave the cash rate on hold until at least late 2019, although growth in wages may be a key factor in the timing of any change in monetary policy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY

House price tumble steeper than tipped

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Original article by Robyn Ironside
The Australian – Page: 2 : 7-Jun-18

The ANZ Bank’s latest housing market report notes that the national auction clearance rate averaged 58 per cent in May, compared with 66 per cent in February. ANZ warns that the downturn means house prices may not rebound as strongly as the bank had previously forecast. ANZ now expects the downturn in house prices to be larger than forecast, noting that the slowdown has gathered pace in recent months. Housing Industry ­Association data also highlights the decline in sales of new homes in 2018.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slips down to 116.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6 June May 2018

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.0% to 116.5 in the week ended 3 June, following a 3.2% decline in the previous week. Consumers’ views towards current financial conditions fell 2.0% to 105.0, the lowest in eight weeks. However, consumers were more optimistic about future financial conditions, which were up 3.3% following a 4.1% decline previously. Views towards current economic conditions fell 4.2% to 105.9, although this subindex remains above its long-term average of 102.0. Similarly, sentiment around future economic conditions fell for the third straight week, down 3.4% to 108.6 and the lowest in eight weeks.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Small firms get cuts, but big business creates jobs

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 4 : 5-Jun-18

The proportion of Australian workers who are employed by small businesses fell from 44.4 per cent to 43.8 per cent in 2016-17. The first phase of the Federal Government’s tax cuts for small businesses took effect on 1 July 2015, but the sector has accounted for just 18 per cent of jobs that have been created since then. University of Tasmania economist Saul Eslake says the figures demonstrate that taxing small businesses at a lower rate than large companies does not generate more jobs.

CORPORATES
UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA, ALPHABETA, XERO LIMITED – ASX XRO

Australian employment up by over 350,000 in a year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Jun-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,415,000 Australians were employed in May 2018, an increase of 355,000 over the last year. The increase was driven by full-time employment, which rose 307,000 to 7,859,000; part-time employment was up 48,000 to 4,286,000. The figures also show that 1,316,000 million Australians were unemployed (9.8% of the workforce) in May, an increase of 32,000 (unchanged in percentage terms) on a year ago. In addition, 1,251,000 Australians (9.3% of the workforce) are now under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a fall of 87,000 in a year (down 0.9%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.8% for May is substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for April of 5.6%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the Fair Work Commission’s decision to raise the minimum wage by 3.5% to almost $720 per week was based on the misleading ABS unemployment figure that under-states the "true" level of unemployment and under-employment in Australia. In future the FWC needs to consider the more accurate Roy Morgan employment figures that consistently records that there are more than 2.5 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

May Business Confidence shows usual post-Budget decline to 117.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Jun-18

In Australia, Business Confidence fell 1.5pts (-1.3%) to 117.1 in May 2018, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. Business Confidence traditionally falls in May following the Federal Budget. Business Confidence has now decreased in seven out of eight years in May, although the decline of 1.3% this year was the smallest May decline on record. Despite the overall fall in confidence, businesses are more confident about the performance of the Australian economy; 54.4% (up 1.8ppts) expect "good times" for the Australian economy over the next year, and 53% (up 1.6ppts) say the next 12 months is a "good time to invest" in growing the business. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the Federal Budget rewarded taxpayers with income tax cuts but businesses are still waiting for the Turnbull Government’s promised cut to the company tax rate from 30% to 25%. In addition to the disappointments surrounding the Federal Budget, the increase in the minimum wage will provide a further deterrent to businesses thinking of hiring young and unskilled staff and increase their endeavours to cut employment costs by implementing new and more cost-effective ways of doing business.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence ends its six week streak, down 3.2% to 117.7

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-May-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 3.2% to 117.7 in the week ended 27 May, after six straight weekly gains. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 2.7%, entirely reversing gains over the previous two weeks. Views towards future financial conditions fell 4.1% to 122.5, the lowest since November. Sentiment around current economic conditions eased 2.4% following no change previously. Views towards future economic conditions fell 2.5%, adding to the 1.9% loss in the previous week. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index dropped 3.9%, more than reversing the previous week’s rise of 2.6%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Most lack full-time jobs with benefits

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 3 : 29-May-18

Analysis of official data by the Centre for Future Work shows that just 49.97 per cent of full-time workers in Australia had paid leave entitlements in 2017, compared with 51.35 per cent in 2012. The proportion of part-time jobs across the economy has in turn risen from 29.7 per cent to a record 31.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the number of workers who are underemployed has risen from 7.6 per cent to 9.1 per cent over the last five years. The data also shows that 12.4 per cent of employees in the private sector are now covered by enterprise agreements, down from 18.9 per cent in 2012. However, the proportion of workers covered by industry awards has risen from 16.6 per cent to 23.6 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE LIMITED. CENTRE FOR FUTURE WORK, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Australia rises to 19th in IMD rank of competitiveness

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 24-May-18

Australia has risen from 21st to 19th in the International Institute for Management Development’s latest "World Competitiveness Yearbook". The IMD has attributed Australia’s improved global competitiveness to factors such as population growth, a stable exchange rate and a strong investment environment. However, Committee for Economic Development of Australia CEO Melinda Cilento notes that the nation is still underperforming with regard to metrics such as productivity and tax rates.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR MANAGEMENT DEVELOPMENT, COMMITTEE FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence on six week streak

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-May-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.7% to 121.6 in the week ended 20 May, to its highest level in 15 weeks. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 2.0% to110.1, the highest in 12 weeks. Views towards future financial conditions were up a modest 0.6%, following a 1.4% rise the previous week. Both subindices remain above their long-term averages. Sentiment around current economic conditions showed no change after a solid 2.4% increase in the previous week. However, views towards future economic conditions eased 1.9%, partially unwinding the previous week’s 3.7% rise. The "time to buy a household item" subindex rose 2.6%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ