ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Fuel and education could flatter CPI result

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 24-Apr-18

Analysts are expecting Australia’s consumer price index for the March quarter to be up 0.5 per cent when official figures are released on 1 May. This figure would mean an annual CPI increase of 1.9 per cent. Andrew Ticehurst of Nomura, who has proven to be the most accurate forecaster taking part in Bloomberg’s survey, is tipping a headline figure of 0.6 per cent. Ticehurst thinks increases in education, fuel, electricity and tobacco costs will have the most impact on the CPI result.

CORPORATES
NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BLOOMBERG LP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Jobs market hits wall after record surge

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 4 : 20-Apr-18

Official data shows that the number of full-time jobs in Australia fell by 7,500 in the March quarter, although 43,000 part-time jobs were created. The economy added 4,900 jobs in March, compared with market expectations of 20,000. Despite the economy’s failure to sustain the momentum that saw more than 430,000 jobs created in the year to January, Employment Minister Michaelia Cash argues that growth in both full and part-time employment is higher than a year ago. She adds that 996,800 jobs have been created since the Coalition won the 2013 federal election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Aussie debt surges as world pares back

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 19-Apr-18

Data from the International Monetary Fund shows that the combined debt of Australian governments is expected to peak at 41.7 per cent of GDP in 2018, compared with just 16.7 per cent in 2009. Japan and Spain are the only major advanced countries to have recorded faster growth in government debt over the last decade. However, the IMF has forecast that Australia’s gross debt will fall to 32.2 per cent over the next five years. Meanwhile, nearly $A60bn worth of Australian government debt is due to mature in the next two years, which is equivalent to 3.1 per cent of GDP.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AUSTRALIA. FUTURE FUND MANAGEMENT AGENCY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence bounces, up 0.9pts to 116.0

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Apr-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.8% to 116.0 in the week ended 15 April, ending a string of weekly declines. Although the headline increase was modest, the detail was more encouraging, with four out of five sub-indices posting gains. Views towards current financial conditions rose 4.6%, after three successive falls. Views towards future conditions bounced 3.5%, entirely reversing the previous week’s fall. Sentiment toward both current and future economic conditions continued to recover, rising 0.5% and 0.9% respectively, following similar gains in the previous week. The current conditions sub-index has risen to 103.9 after falling to its long-term average of 101.9 in the last week of March.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Migration a net boost to economy

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Original article by Simon Benson, Sam Buckingham-Jones
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 17-Apr-18

The Treasury and the Department of Home Affairs have released a report which highlights the economic benefits of Australia’s immigration policy. It concludes that at current levels, the nation’s permanent migrant intake will boost average GDP growth by between 0.5 per cent and one per cent annually over the three decades to 2050. Amongst other things, the report estimates that skilled migrants who were granted permanent visas in 2014-15 will make a combined net contribution of $A6.9bn to government revenue over their lifetime. Treasurer Scott Morrison says the report supports the government’s policy of not having a fixed annual permanent migrant intake.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Consumer Confidence & Business Confidence start 2018 on a high

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Apr-18

Roy Morgan Business Confidence and ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence have both begun 2018 on a high, recording their highest ratings for the March quarter in several years. Roy Morgan Business Confidence for the March quarter 2018 was recorded at 119.7, up 5.7pts on a year ago. This is the highest Business Confidence rating for the March quarter since 2014, when Business Confidence was an impressive 123.2 for the opening months of 2014. ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has almost matched its fellow confidence measure, recording a confidence rating of 119.4 for the March quarter 2018, up 3.2pts on a year ago. This makes 2018 the best start to a year for Consumer Confidence since the March quarter 2013, when Consumer Confidence averaged 120.6 for the first three months of that year. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the improved political performance of the Turnbull Government in the two latest Morgan Polls and the positive start to 2018 for both Roy Morgan Business Confidence and ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence mean next month’s Federal Budget presents a clear opportunity for Treasurer Scott Morrison to set the Government on the path to a strong performance at the next Federal election.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Activism to rise as M&A at highest since 2007

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 13-Apr-18

Data from Dealogic shows that $US32.8bn ($A42.3bn) worth of mergers and acquisitions have been announced in Australia so far in 2018. Neil Pathak of Gilbert + Tobin says M&A activity in the near-term is unlikely to be affected by heightened financial market volatility or concerns about a trade war between the US and China. The law firm also anticipates that shareholder activists will continue to target listed companies.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, GILBERT AND TOBIN LAWYERS, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION, ARDENT LEISURE GROUP – ASX AAD, QUINTIS LIMITED – ASX QIN, AWE LIMITED – ASX AWE, ISENTIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX ISD, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, HARBOUR ENERGY LIMITED, TRIBECA INVESTMENT PARTNERS PTY LTD, BENNELONG FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, UNIBAIL-RODAMCO, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. FOREIGN INVESTMENT REVIEW BOARD

Employment at record high but over 2.5m looking for more work

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Apr-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 1.21 million Australians were unemployed (8.9% of the workforce) in March 2018, a decrease of 26,000 (down 0.4%) on a year ago. In addition, 1.36 million Australians (10.0% of the workforce) are now under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a rise of 258,000 in a year (up 1.6%). The figures also show that a record 12,374,000 Australians were employed in March – an increase of 399,000 over the last year. Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 8.9% for March is substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for February 2018 of 5.6%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that given the large number of Australians directly, or even indirectly impacted, by unemployment and under-employment it is no surprise that issues relating to unemployment, job security and the search for jobs is one of the key issues Australians mention unprompted when asked about the biggest problem facing Australia in early in 2018.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Business Confidence down in March to 115.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Apr-18

In Australia, Business Confidence fell 4.6pts (-3.8%) to 115.4 in March 2018, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. However, Business Confidence remains 1.6pts higher than a year ago and continues its best start to a year since 2014, averaging 119.3 in the first three months of 2018. Some 52.3% of businesses (down 1ppt) now expect "good times" for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 40.1% (up 1ppt) expect "bad times". Meanwhile, 51.2% (up 7.7ppts) say their own business will be "better off" financially this time next year, while 17.8% (up 0.7ppt) expect the business to be "worse off" this time next year.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Aussies dare to splash the cash

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 5-Apr-18

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales increased by 0.6 per cent in February, while growth in sales for January has been upwardly revised to two per cent. Rahul Bajoria and Krishna Goradia of Barclays say that the February sales data may have been boosted by an increase in Chinese tourists for the lunar new year. Department stores recorded the strongest growth in sales during February, at 1.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA