ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Backlash as foreign buyers flee

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 29 : 11-Jan-18

South Australia was the only state that did not record a downturn in sales of residential properties to foreign buyers in the December quarter, according to a new ANZ/Property Council survey. Property developers say factors such as restrictions on access to credit and higher taxes on foreign buyers have contributed to the downturn in demand, and prompted some developers to withdraw from the residential market. Meriton founder Harry Triguboff says his company is having to resell many apartments that had been pre-sold to Chinese buyers.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERITON APARTMENTS PTY LTD, REALESTATE.COM.AU, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, CROWN GROUP PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Health, retail leading surge in jobs growth

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Original article by Rachel Baxendale, Elizabeth Redman
The Australian – Page: 2 : 11-Jan-18

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that there was 2.7 per cent growth in job vacancies in the three months to November 2017, and 16.1 per cent growth in the year to November. The annual growth in job vacancies was the strongest in seven years, while Australia recorded its strongest growth in new jobs for more than 12 years. Meanwhile, there was 17.2 per cent growth in private sector job vacancies over the 12 months, compared with 4.9 per cent growth in public sector job vacancies. Economists forecast that wages will begin to rise in 2018.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence ends 2017 on a high at 116.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Dec-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.2% to 116.5 in the week ended 17 December. The details were positive, with all sub-indices except "time to buy a household item" posting gains. Sentiment towards both current and future economic conditions rose for the third straight week (2.4% and 1.1% respectively). This and other gains are indicative of the sustained turnaround in overall sentiment since the low for the year in August. Views towards current financial conditions jumped a solid 3.6%, more than offsetting the 2.7% fall previously. Views towards future financial conditions improved 0.5%, following a 2.8% fall in the previous week. Both sub-indices currently sit above their long-term averages.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Turnbull takes credit for jobs boom

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 15-Dec-17

The Australian workforce has increased by 3.2 per cent in the last year, which is the fastest rate of growth since early 2008. Some 440,000 jobs have been created since September 2016, including 62,000 in November 2017, and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull notes that the labour market had not previously grown for 14 months successive months since 1994. He has attributed the strong jobs growth to the Coalition’s policies, although Labor employment spokesman Brendan O’Connor argues that the underemployment rate remains close to its record high.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LATROBE COMMUNITY HEALTH SERVICE, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Jobs surge supports RBA’s growth forecasts

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 15-Dec-17

The latest jobs data may strengthen the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to begin lifting the cash rate in late 2018. Some 62,000 jobs were created in November, and 383,000 in the last year, while the unemployment rate was steady at 5.4 per cent. The Australian Bureau of Statistics data also supports the central bank’s view that economic growth will be above its trend rate in 2018. However, Tom Kennedy of JP Morgan says the RBA is likely to keep interest rates on hold while the unemployment rate remains at its current level, while George Tharenou of UBS does not expect a rate rise until 2019.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence still above average at 115.1 after 0.6% fall

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Dec-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence slipped 0.6% to 115.1 in the week ended 10 December, effectively unwinding the 0.7% gain in the previous week, but remaining above its long-run average. The details were mixed; sentiment around financial conditions declined, but the remaining indexes posted small gains. Households continue to remain upbeat about both current and future economic conditions, with the sub-indices up 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. In four-week moving average terms, views towards current economic conditions are at their highest point since late 2013. Views towards current financial conditions fell 2.7%, more than reversing the 1.7% gain previously, and bringing the sub-index to a six-week low. Views towards future financial conditions fell 2.8%. Even so, both sub-indices currently sit above their long-term averages.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Indonesians are far more confident than their Australian neighbours

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Dec-17

Consumer Confidence in Australia and its largest neighbour Indonesia has diverged massively since the height of the Australian mining boom in 2010-11. Indonesian Consumer Confidence soared following the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09, and while the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Rating improved significantly it has never reached the heights of its northern neighbour. In October 2017 Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence was at 153.8, more than 40pts above the figure for ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence for the same month of 113.3, although Australian Consumer Confidence has improved slightly over the past few weeks and is now at 115.8. However, in the years 2007-2010 Consumer Confidence in Australia and Indonesia was relatively similar and Australian Consumer Confidence was in fact higher throughout 2007, only dipping below Indonesian Consumer Confidence in mid-2008 as it reached a quarterly low of 94.4 in the December 2008 quarter.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

2.394m Australians unemployed or under-employed in November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Dec-17

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 1.288 million Australians were unemployed (9.8% of the workforce) in November 2017, an increase of 89,000 (up 0.6%) on a year ago. In addition, 1.106 million Australians (8.4% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a rise of 6,000 in a year. In total, 2.394 million Australians were unemployed or under-employed in November. The figures also show that 11,886,000 Australians were employed in November – an increase of 39,000 over the past year. The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate of 5.4% for October. Roy Morgan executive chairman Gary Morgan says it has now been more than two years, or 26 straight months, that more than two million Australians have been unemployed or under-employed. It is this "slack" in the Australian labour market that is responsible for the low wage growth mentioned by the RBA this week in their Statement explaining their decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Slow growth puts a brake on rate rises

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 26 : 7-Dec-17

The latest GDP data has prompted financial markets to price in an 84 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase the cash rate by the end of 2018, down from 94 per cent previously. The economy expanded by a lower-than-expected 0.6 per cent in the September 2017 quarter, while year-on-year growth rose from 1.9 per cent to 2.8 per cent. Meanwhile, growth in household consumption slowed to just 0.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Rebound in wage data offers glimmer of hope

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 5-Dec-17

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that wages in the private sector rose by 1.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter during the three months to September, and 2.5 per cent year-on-year. Data on public sector wage growth will be released with the national accounts on 6 December. However, the latest data suggests that the Reserve Bank will have scope to increase the cash rate if the recent growth in wages is sustained. Craig James of CommSec expects an interest rate rise in late 2018.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD