ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

2.394m Australians unemployed or under-employed in November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Dec-17

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 1.288 million Australians were unemployed (9.8% of the workforce) in November 2017, an increase of 89,000 (up 0.6%) on a year ago. In addition, 1.106 million Australians (8.4% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a rise of 6,000 in a year. In total, 2.394 million Australians were unemployed or under-employed in November. The figures also show that 11,886,000 Australians were employed in November – an increase of 39,000 over the past year. The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate of 5.4% for October. Roy Morgan executive chairman Gary Morgan says it has now been more than two years, or 26 straight months, that more than two million Australians have been unemployed or under-employed. It is this "slack" in the Australian labour market that is responsible for the low wage growth mentioned by the RBA this week in their Statement explaining their decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Slow growth puts a brake on rate rises

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 26 : 7-Dec-17

The latest GDP data has prompted financial markets to price in an 84 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase the cash rate by the end of 2018, down from 94 per cent previously. The economy expanded by a lower-than-expected 0.6 per cent in the September 2017 quarter, while year-on-year growth rose from 1.9 per cent to 2.8 per cent. Meanwhile, growth in household consumption slowed to just 0.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Rebound in wage data offers glimmer of hope

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 5-Dec-17

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that wages in the private sector rose by 1.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter during the three months to September, and 2.5 per cent year-on-year. Data on public sector wage growth will be released with the national accounts on 6 December. However, the latest data suggests that the Reserve Bank will have scope to increase the cash rate if the recent growth in wages is sustained. Craig James of CommSec expects an interest rate rise in late 2018.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Business Confidence up 1.4pts in November to 114.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Dec-17

Business Confidence in Australia rose 1.4pts (+1.2%) to 114.1 in November 2017, according to the Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey, despite political issues for the Federal Government facing two by-elections over the next fortnight. Some 49.7% (up 1.9ppts) of businesses expect "good times" for the Australian economy over the next year, while 44.2% (down 1.6ppts) expect "bad times". Meanwhile, 44% (down 1.8ppts) of businesses say their business will be "better off" financially this time next year, while 20.3% (down 2.9ppts) expect the business to be "worse off" this time next year. The small increase in Business Confidence in November was driven by rises in confidence in industries including Finance & Insurance, Accommodation & Food services, Professional, scientific & technical and Education & training.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australian Inflation Expectations up in October led by renters

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Dec-17

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for October 2017. This is up 0.1% in a month, and up 0.4% from October 2016. However, it remains well below the seven-year average of 5.0%. Inflation Expectations among renters was 4.9% in October, compared with just 3.9% for home owners and 4.2% for mortgagors. Analysis by State shows that Inflation Expectations are highest in South Australia at 4.9%, followed by Victoria and Queensland (4.6%). Analysing Inflation Expectations by Federal voting intention shows that ALP supporters (4.6%) have the highest inflation expectations, ahead of L-NP supporters (4%) and Greens supporters (4.4%)

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence moderates after recent strength down 1.4pts to 115.0

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Nov-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence declined in the week ending 26 November, easing 1.2% to 115.0. However, confidence remains above the long term average of 112.9. Three out of five sub-indices posted falls, including both current and future economic conditions. Households’ views towards both current and future economic conditions slipped 3.4% and 3.3% respectively, after two weeks of solid gains. Household views toward the state of their current finances slipped for the fourth consecutive week, down 2.3%, while sentiment around the ‘time to buy a household item’ improved 0.5%, bringing this sub-index back to its long term average (133.8).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating rises to a 16-week high of 116.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Nov-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating increased 1.4% to 116.4 in the week ended 19 November 2017, its highest level in 16 weeks. The details were broadly positive, with three out of five sub-indices posting gains, while the other two showed only slight falls. Households’ views towards both current and future economic conditions rose 2.9% and 2.0% respectively. Household views towards the current state of their finances were again pessimistic, but views towards future conditions jumped 3.0%, the first increase in four weeks. Inflation expectations remain unchanged at 4.5% in four-week moving average terms.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Signs of life in corporate investment: RBA

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Original article by David Rogers, James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 28 : 14-Nov-17

The Reserve Bank’s deputy governor Guy Debelle has told the UBS Australasia Conference that business investment outside of Australia’s mining sector has been stronger than official figures suggest in the last several years. He said the services sector in particular has recorded strong growth in capital investment, while there has also been an increase in public investment in infrastructure. Meanwhile, Debelle noted that a rise in the cash rate will be dependent on an increase in wages and inflation.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence: headline index eases slightly

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Nov-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence slipped 0.7% to 112.6 in the week ended 5 November 2017, a touch under its long-term average of 112.9. The details were broadly negative, with four out of five sub-indices showing falls. The outlook on economic conditions in the next year rose 2.1%, partially offsetting a 4.5% fall in the previous week. The sub-index on longer-term future economic conditions fell 2.8% to its lowest value in eight weeks. Meanwhile, consumers’ views about current financial conditions eased 0.5% after a solid 5.3% jump the previous week, and the outlook for future financial conditions fell for the third straight week, bringing the index down to its lowest point in 11 weeks.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

2.334 million Australians now unemployed or under-employed

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Original article by
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Nov-17

A Roy Morgan survey has found that 1.226 million Australians were unemployed in October, an increase of 38,000 over the same time in 2016. A further 1.108 million Australians were under-employed, down 138,000 on the same time in 2016. The number of Australians in employment in October totalled 11,767,000, an increase of 104,000 over the past year, with the increase largely due to a rise in full-time jobs. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says employment growth has eased in the second half of 2017, while he notes the end of car manufacturing in Australia in October will have a flow-on effect to several automotive parts manufacturers and suppliers.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS