ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Australian Inflation Expectations unchanged at 4.5% to start 2018

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Mar-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for January 2018. This is unchanged for a third straight month and also unchanged from January 2017. Inflation Expectations have levelled off in recent months after rising throughout the last year; 2017 was the first year since the series began in 2010 that Inflation Expectations were higher year-over-year in every month. Despite the increases throughout 2017, Inflation Expectations remain well below the seven-year average of 5.0%. Analysis by State shows that Inflation Expectations remain the highest in Queensland at 4.8%, with the southern States of Victoria and Tasmania both on 4.7%, and South Australia on 4.6% also above the national average. Analysis by Federal voting intention shows that ALP supporters (4.5%) have Inflation Expectations equal to the national average, above those of L-NP supporters (4.1%).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence up 2.3% to 117.9

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Feb-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 2.3% to 117.9 in the week ended 25 February, partially recovering from the 3.5% fall the previous week. The details were broadly positive, with four out of five sub-indices posting gains. Views towards current economic conditions firmed 0.4% after sharp losses in the previous two weeks. While views toward current economic conditions have only stabilised after these falls, they remain above their-long term average. Consumers were more optimistic about future conditions, with this sub-index bouncing 6% and almost offsetting the 8.8% drop in the previous week. Views towards current finances jumped 6%, bringing the sub-index to a six-week high of 110.4. The recovery in sentiment around future conditions was more modest (1.5%), offsetting the 1.3% fall in the previous week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence up 2.3% to 117.9

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Feb-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 2.3% to 117.9 in the week ended 25 February, partially recovering from the 3.5% fall the previous week. The details were broadly positive, with four out of five sub-indices posting gains. Views towards current economic conditions firmed 0.4% after sharp losses in the previous two weeks. While views toward current economic conditions have only stabilised after these falls, they remain above their-long term average. Consumers were more optimistic about future conditions, with this sub-index bouncing 6% and almost offsetting the 8.8% drop in the previous week. Views towards current finances jumped 6%, bringing the sub-index to a six-week high of 110.4. The recovery in sentiment around future conditions was more modest (1.5%), offsetting the 1.3% fall in the previous week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Wages growth higher among public sector

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 4 : 22-Feb-18

The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ wage price index data shows that wages in the private sector rose by 1.9 per cent in 2017, compared with 2.4 per cent growth for public sector wages. The mining sector had the lowest growth in wages, at 1.4 per cent, while retail industry wages rose by just 1.6 per cent and wages in the healthcare sector increased by 2.7 per cent. There was 2.1 per cent growth in wages overall during the calendar year, including 0.6 per cent growth in the December quarter.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence down again by 3.5% to 115.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Feb-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 3.5% to 115.3 in the week ended 18 February, following a 2.6% decline in the previous week. For the second straight week all sub-indices posted declines, with sentiment around economic conditions dropping sharply. Views towards current economic conditions fell 5.5%, on the back of a 6% decline previously, bringing the sub-index to an eight-week low of 107.0. Similarly, perceptions of future economic conditions took an 8.8% dive to a 13-week low of 106.3. Views towards current and future conditions fell 1.6% and 1.3% respectively, following a 2.6% and 1.8% fall previously. That said, both indices remain above their long-term averages.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ABS data shows full-time employment down 50,000 in a month as part-time jobs surge – a real problem!

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Feb-18

Full-time employment fell nearly 50,000 in January according to the ABS employment figures released yesterday and confirm the longer-term trend revealed by the Roy Morgan January employment figures released a week ago. Increases in part-time employment which could mean working anywhere between 1-30 hours per week are driving employment growth at the expense of full-time jobs. As Roy Morgan first revealed last week: "The increase in employment over the past year was driven entirely by an increase in part-time employment which rose 156,000 to 4,191,000 while full-time employment fell 40,000 to 8,045,000".

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Turns out Abbott was right about new jobs

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 15-Feb-18

The general consensus of economists is that the latest labour force data will show that about 15,000 jobs were created in January 2018. This would lift the number of jobs created since the September 2013 federal election to more than 971,000. Prior to the election, then Opposition leader Tony Abbott had committed to increasing the labour force by one million during the Coalition’s first five years in office. The Government is on track to deliver on this pre-election promise well within the five-year time-frame, after the economy added 400,000 jobs in 2017.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BLOOMBERG LP

Low inflation, low unemployment, and Lowe restraint

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 9-Feb-18

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has indicated that an interest rate rise is now more likely than a rate cut. However, he says the central bank is unlikely to tighten monetary policy until inflation rises around the mid-point of its target range of 2-3 per cent and there is a further reduction in the unemployment rate. He has stressed that the Reserve Bank does not need to adjust monetary policy in line with other central banks. Lowe also says the Reserve Bank does not expect its inflation forecasts to be unduly affected by the recent sharemarket volatility.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Half of minimum wage workers are rich

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 8-Feb-18

An analysis of Household Income & Labour Dynamics in Australia data by the Melbourne Institute has concluded that 13 per cent of people on the minimum wage live in households that have the nation’s highest incomes. The analysis suggests that a large proportion people on the minimum wage are students in the 21-34 age group and in many instances live with their parents. The Melbourne Institute also concluded that just 21 per cent of workers live in households for which the minimum wage is the sole source of income.

CORPORATES
UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

2.59m Australians unemployed or under-employed in January

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Feb-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 1.219 million Australians were unemployed (9.1% of the workforce) in January 2018, a decrease of 76,000 (down 0.6%) on a year ago. In addition, 1.371 million Australians (10.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a rise of 264,000 in a year. In total, 2.59 million Australians were unemployed or under-employed in January. The figures also show that 12,236,000 Australians were employed in January – an increase of 116,000 over the past year. The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate of 5.5% for December 2017. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says jobs growth in calendar year 2017 was driven entirely by growth in part-time employment, which may partly explain why Australians do not believe that the monthly ABS unemployment estimates are accurate.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS