Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-May-19

Saturday’s Federal Election results shows the L-NP Government will likely be returned with a small majority. Analysis of the polls show all polls significantly underestimated the L-NP primary vote. The Roy Morgan Poll a week before the Federal Election had L-NP support at 38.5% – 2.9% lower than their actual vote of 41.4%. Roy Morgan throughout the election campaign period showed from survey data that: The Federal Election would be close – even a ‘Hung Parliament’ was possible. There will be many views and reasons posed for why Saturday’s election result was a victory for the Morrison led L-NP. The question still to be answered is whether: All polls were wrong in underestimating the L-NP (38.5% vs. 41.4%) vote during the whole election campaign (the Trump Factor), or did electors change their minds in the last week – after the death of former ALP Prime Minister Bob Hawke (much loved) and Shorten who on the last day raised the ‘ghost’ of Gough Whitlam ignoring electors concerns of bad economic news resulting in a fall in the $AUD and the escalation of the US/China ‘trade war’. Morrison never changed his message that a Coalition Government would ‘Cut taxes’ while Labor would ‘Increase tax’ on Incomes, Capital gains and ‘Super’, eliminate Franking credits and cut Negative gearing. The revenue raised would then be used to increase wages and massive Government spending on Health, Education and other areas including ‘Climate Change’. Morrison refused to be drawn into the debate on ‘Climate Change’ like Fraser in 1975 refused to be drawn into the debate on the ‘Dismissal’ – both issues having no relevance to ‘day-to-day’ living costs which easily concerned the electorate the most – as it did in 1975. While preferences from One Nation (vote 3%) and Palmer’s United Australian Party (vote 3.4%) enabled the Coalition to win sufficient seats to retain Government the ALP vote was at a low 33.9% – down 1.1% on the last Federal Election. View full release here.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, ONE NATION PARTY, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-May-19

A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll conducted over the last few days shows a large majority of 66% of Australian electors think the ALP will win this week’s Federal Election compared to only 34% that think the L-NP Coalition will win. ALP supporters are particularly confident with 81% saying they think the ALP will win, while a bare majority of 53% of L-NP supporters think the L-NP will win. Greens supporters are even more confident about an ALP victory with 84% expecting an ALP victory while 64.5% of supporters of Independents/Others expect an ALP win. Young Australians are more confident of an ALP victory than their older peers with 80% of 18-24 year olds expecting an ALP victory compared to 74.5% of 25-34 year olds, 65% of 35-49 year olds, 61.5% of 50-64 year olds and 59% of those aged 65+ years old. Click here for full details

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS