ELECTIONS – AUSTRALIA

Not time to risk Labor: Morrison

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Original article by Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 9 : 17-May-19

Prime Minister Scott Morrison used his last major speech before the election to emphasise that voters want a government that they can trust and rely on. Addressing the National Press Club in Canberra, Morrison warned that Labor’s policies of increased taxes and government spending would stifle wages growth, dampen consumer confidence and impede economic growth. He said the Coalition’s policies will create 1.25 million jobs and 250,000 new small and medium enterprises.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Two-thirds of Australians think the ALP is set to win tomorrow’s Federal Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-May-19

A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll conducted over the last few days shows a large majority of 66% of Australian electors think the ALP will win this week’s Federal Election compared to only 34% that think the L-NP Coalition will win. ALP supporters are particularly confident with 81% saying they think the ALP will win, while a bare majority of 53% of L-NP supporters think the L-NP will win. Greens supporters are even more confident about an ALP victory with 84% expecting an ALP victory while 64.5% of supporters of Independents/Others expect an ALP win. Young Australians are more confident of an ALP victory than their older peers with 80% of 18-24 year olds expecting an ALP victory compared to 74.5% of 25-34 year olds, 65% of 35-49 year olds, 61.5% of 50-64 year olds and 59% of those aged 65+ years old. Click here for full details

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MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Advertising rules and blackouts are looking outdated

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Original article by Natasha Gillezeau
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 16-May-19

Political marketing expert Andrew Hughes has questioned why the pre-election advertising blackout has not been extended to social media. The ban on political advertising on broadcast TV and radio took effect at 12am on 16 May, but it does not apply to online media. Political science and lobbying expert George Rennie expects the blackout to benefit Labor more than the Coalition, noting that the latter is more reliant on traditional broadcast media to reach older voters. Catch-up TV services are also exempt from the blackout.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ALLENS

PM’s final pitch: it’s not time

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 16-May-19

Prime Minister Scott Morrison will address the National Press Club on 16 May; Labor’s tax policies and their impact on house values, renters and retirees will be a key focus of his speech. He has described the election as a "choice about aspiration", or higher taxes and increased government spending under Labor. Opposition leader Bill Shorten in turn says the election is a choice between "real change" or more of the "cuts and chaos" that have characterised the Coalition’s years in office.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

The Greens are hoping for a big election. But who are they?

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-May-19

Australians head to an important Federal Election this week, with the latest Roy Morgan Polls showing the ALP 51% with a narrow lead over the L-NP 49% on a two-party preferred basis. Support for the Greens was at 11% in the Roy Morgan Poll conducted on May 4/5. The close results from the latest Roy Morgan Polls mean there is a very good chance Australia could once again elect a hung Parliament. The Greens achieved a record high vote of 13.1% in the Senate and 11.8% in the House of Representatives at the 2010 Federal Election. Has the composition of Greens support changed since 2010? Greens supporters are concentrated in the highest socio-economic quintiles with 31% of Greens supporters in the highest socio-economic AB quintile in 2018, unchanged from 2010, and 24% of Greens supporters in the C quintile, also unchanged. Although Greens supporter distribution by socio-economic quintile is largely unchanged from 2010 there are underlying changes in the composition of Greens support. Women now comprise 59% of Greens supporters, up from 54% in 2010, while men now comprise only 41% of Greens supporters, down from 46% at the start of the decade. Meanwhile, an increasing proportion of Greens supporters today are in the younger age groups.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

PM’s test for independents

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Original article by Joe Kelly, Dennis Shanahan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 9 : 14-May-19

Prime Minister Scott Morrison says it is "reasonable and fair" to ask independent candidates who they would support if neither the Coalition or Labor secure a majority in the federal election. Former prime minister John Howard has noted there is no guarantee that an independent candidate who wins a seat will support the Liberal Party, while Labor leader Bill Shorten has claimed that Clive Palmer and Pauline Hanson would "call the shots" in a minority ­Coalition government.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, ONE NATION PARTY

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine analyses the boost in support for the ALP a week before the Federal Election

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Original article by Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-19

The ALP campaign launch last week with a message of unity has helped provide a ‘boost’ in ALP support with under a week to go until the Federal Election. The ALP 52% now holds an election winning lead over the L-NP 48% on a two-party preferred basis. In addition Bill Shorten’s good week came as many Australians felt sympathy for Shorten after he described the struggles his mother had endured to undertake her dream of completing a law degree. A front-page headline in Sydney’s Daily Telegraph which sought to attack Shorten for drawing on his mother’s story only served to highlight his mother’s achievements to a wider audience. Shorten also had two successful leadership debates with Prime Minister Scott Morrison including a quick-witted put-down of Morrison as a ‘classic space invader’ during the second leader’s debate and a solid performance in the third, and final, leader’s debate last Wednesday. In calculating the two-party preferred support the Roy Morgan Poll uses respondent’s stated preferences. While Greens supporters strongly preferences the ALP, other parties stated preferences are dividing fairly evenly between the ALP and L-NP and as many as one-in-four electors still haven’t made their mind up. However, most Australians believe the ALP will win the election with many polls for months showing the ALP well ahead of the Government. But will all the polls be proven wrong again like with the US Presidential Election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016? Most people believed Clinton would win and this belief was reflected by most of the American polls at the time.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

ALP regains initiative with a week to go: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-19

The last face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll before the election shows the ALP regaining the initiative and pulling away from the L-NP with an election winning two-party preferred lead: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%. The increase for the ALP came through an increased primary vote at the expense of the Greens, according to the final face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll of the Federal Election, and indicates the chances of Australia electing a hung Parliament this weekend have diminished. Primary Voting Intention: Primary support for the L-NP was unchanged at 38.5% this week but support for the ALP increased by 1.5% to 35.5%. The ALP gained support from the Greens, down 1% to 10%. Support for One Nation was unchanged at 4% and support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP) was unchanged at 3.5%. Support for Independents/Others is down marginally by 0.5% to 8.5%. In a worrying sign for the L-NP Government the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has dropped 6pts to 93 this week with 44.5% of electors (up 3.5%) saying Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’ and only 37.5% (down 2.5%) saying Australia is heading in the ‘right direction.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY

PM’s late pitch for young voters

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 13-May-19

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has used the Coalition’s official election campaign launch to announce a First Home Loan Deposit Scheme. The $500m scheme will allow Australians to buy their first home with a deposit of just five per cent rather than 20 per cent, with the government to underwrite the balance via its National Housing Finance & Investment Corporation. Labor responded by announcing that it will match the policy while pressing ahead with its negative gearing reforms. Morrison also committed to providing $4bn worth of federal funding for the East West road link in Melbourne.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. NATIONAL HOUSING FINANCE AND INVESTMENT CORPORATION

Pundits and pollies in a race to call it first

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Original article by Lilly Vitorovich, Zoe Samios
The Australian – Page: 23 & 25 : 13-May-19

Australia’s five free-to-air TV networks will provide live coverage of the federal election on 18 May. Data from OzTAM shows that 1.8 million people watched the 2016 election coverage on the ABC, Seven and Nine, after Ten opted against live coverage. Nunn Media MD Chris Walton notes that the 2019 election has attracted more interest than other recent elections, adding that the cost of providing live election coverage is not significant for the networks. Pay-TV company Sky News will also have live election coverage.

CORPORATES
OZTAM PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BROADCASTING CORPORATION, SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED, SPECIAL BROADCASTING SERVICE (SBS), SKY NEWS, NUNN MEDIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA