ELECTIONS – AUSTRALIA

Priceless: Bill’s climate costs

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Original article by Simon Benson, Joe Kelly, Ben Packham, Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 30-Apr-19

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten says it is not possible to put a single price on the cost of Labor’s carbon emission reduction targets. Shorten was speaking during the first leaders’ debate on 29 April. Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the Coalition deserves to be returned to office on the basis of its economic performance, while he noted its commitment to create 100,000 jobs for young Australians. The debate was held in front of 48 undecided voters in the Seven West Media studio in Perth; 25 stated that they thought Shorten won the debate, 12 said Morrison had won and 11 were undecided

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM

Game on – Game won?

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Apr-19

Last Tuesday April 23, Roy Morgan Poll published ‘Game On: Easter Roy Morgan Poll shows election race tightening: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% on a two-party preferred basis’. The face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll was conducted on the weekend of April 20/21, 2019 with a cross-section of 707 electors. The latest Newspoll, published in ‘The Australian’ on Monday April 29, also shows Labor leading the L-NP 51% to 49% on a two-party preferred basis.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Shorten’s pledge to business

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 26-Apr-19

Opposition leader Bill Shorten says the federal election contest has become one of "hope versus fear". He says the federal government appears to be solely focused on attacking Labor’s policies, and has nothing to offer itself. Shorten says he intends to convene a summit on the economy and wages within the first 100 days of a Labor government, while he says Labor has no plans to change its policies in areas like industrial relations and company taxes. Shorten adds that Labor wants to work with business, while he will not be beholden to the union movement.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION, INFRASTRUCTURE AUSTRALIA

RBA’s election rate cut no done deal

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 26-Apr-19

The futures market has priced in a 67 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate in May. IFM’s chief economist Alex Joiner says the central bank is more likely to leave rates on hold until June, so it can take into account the latest employment and wages data. Michael Blythe of the Commonwealth Bank in turn says the RBA would not be concerned about adjusting the cash rate during an election campaign. However, he notes that the central bank has made it clear that the timing of any change in monetary policy will depend on the outlook for unemployment and inflation.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, QIC LIMITED, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Coalition go-ahead for giant U-mine

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 26-Apr-19

The Supreme Court of Western Australia has not released its ruling on a legal challenge to the state government’s decision to approve Cameco’s Yeelirrie uranium mine. However, it has been revealed that federal Environment Minister Melissa Price approved the project one day before the election was called. Mia Pepper, a spokeswoman for the Conservation Council of WA, has described Price’s decision to approve the mine as
"premature and highly political".

CORPORATES
CAMECO CORPORATION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY, SUPREME COURT OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA, CONSERVATION COUNCIL OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED, WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF WATER AND ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION, WESTERN AUSTRALIA. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AUTHORITY, ADANI MINING PTY LTD, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP

PM puts Palmer deal in play

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Original article by Simon Benson, Sid Maher, Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 24-Apr-19

The Coalition is believed to be finalising a preferences deal with Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, although negotiations regarding some seats are said to be continuing. A deal with UAP would be likely to bolster the Coalition’s prospects of retaining a number of marginal seats, as well as regaining seats such as Lindsay and Herbert. Such a deal could also ensure that Palmer secures a seat in the Senate.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY, ONE NATION PARTY, KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, PALMER UNITED PARTY

Game On: Easter Roy Morgan Poll shows election race tightening: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% on a two-party preferred basis

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-19

The ALP 51% leads the L-NP 49% on a two party preferred basis according to a face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll conducted on the Easter weekend of April 20/21, 2019 with a cross-section of 707 electors. The tight result at Easter means the Roy Morgan Poll has swung by 1.5% to the L-NP since the prior surveying period of April 6/7 & 13/14, 2019. The L-NP now has a primary vote of 39% (up 1.5%) and clearly ahead of the ALP on 35.5% (down 1%) while Greens support is down 1.5% to 9.5%. Support for One Nation is up 1% to 4.5% while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is up 0.5% to 2%. Support for Independents/Others is now 9.5% (down 0.5%). Roy Morgan Government Confidence has improved this week with 40% of electors saying Australia is now heading in the right direction, up 1% from a week earlier while 41% (down 1.5%) say Australia is heading in the wrong direction. These results leave Government Confidence below the neutral level of 100 and indicate the ALP is still the favourite to win with early voting opening next week, although the L-NP has closed the gap significantly during the last week.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Over a quarter of electors (27%) yet to make up their minds and election up for grabs – by Michele Levine, Roy Morgan Research on ABC NewsRadio

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-19

A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll conducted for the Australian Futures Project last week on April 17-18, 2019 with a cross-section of 1,546 electors shows 27% of electors are yet to make up their mind who they will vote for in next month’s Federal Election and 44% of them say no party is addressing the issues that matter to them. Key demographics yet to make up their minds include 38% of Australians aged 25-34 years old and 33% of Queensland electors. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine highlighted that although the ALP remains the favourite, the large number of undecided voters means there could still be a turning point in the election campaign that costs the ALP victory. This is the probably first election that I’ve seen where you’ve really had some fundamental issues at war with each other. At this election what the electorate wants is they want a healthy economy, they want the environment cared for and the want the cost of living preserved or not ‘flying through the roof’. So these three things don’t sit naturally together. You can’t just have all of them. Where does the money come from? Somebody has to think about these things. So they are really playing out in this election. We know from surveying people’s views about the environment and Climate change until 2008 and the Global Financial Crisis everyone was saying the environment was the most important issue for them. Then when the Financial Crisis came the issue became what are we going to do about it and who is going to pay. Now that issue is what’s being played out today. The interview with Levine was conducted before the latest Federal voting results shown above were available. Click on link to listen to 5min ABC NewsRadio interview with Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Rich Lister hemp campaigner backs Abbott

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Original article by Carrie LaFrenz
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 23-Apr-19

Barry Lambert, the chairman and biggest shareholder of hemp company Ecofibre, is urging voters in the seat of Warringah to re-elect former prime minister Tony Abbott. Lambert is keen to get medical cannabis legalised, and he says Abbott has been supportive of his campaign. Lambert has urged Labor leader Bill Shorten to legalise hemp extract for medical purposes if he wins the election; Lambert also says Shorten should exempt existing investors from Labor’s proposed franking credit reforms.

CORPORATES
ECOFIBRE INDUSTRIES LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, THOMAS JEFFERSON UNIVERSITY, COUNT FINANCIAL LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, ONE NATION PARTY

Palmer’s political ad spend tops $30m

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Original article by Lilly Vitorovich
The Australian – Page: 20 & 22 : 22-Apr-19

New data from Nielsen shows that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party has spent some $31.7m on newspaper, TV and radio advertising since September. The UAP significantly outspent the major political parties in the weeks immediately prior to the federal election being called. VMLY&R CEO Peter Bosilkovski notes that UAP has already spend more than the four major political parties during the 2016 election campaign. UAP’s advertising expenditure is expected to top $50m by election day.

CORPORATES
UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY, VMLY&R, THE NIELSEN COMPANY (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY