ELECTIONS – AUSTRALIA

Why Morrison needs to turn up the fear factor on Labor

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Original article by Robert Gottliebsen
The Australian – Page: 29 : 16-Apr-19

The Coalition’s best chance of winning the federal election may to be to launch a fear campaign against key Labor policies, such as its franking credit reforms and changes to the negative gearing regime. The latter policy will almost certainly result in lower house values over time; the Coalition should pitch its fear campaign at home buyers who are in or are close to being in negative equity, as well as small business owners who use their homes as capital. However, Prime Minister Scott Morrison is unlikely to seek to cash in on the fear factor until it is far too late.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Turnbull’s plan to destroy News Corp influence

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Original article by Aaron Patrick
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 15-Apr-19

Alex Turnbull is helping independent candidates in a number of seats at the federal election, but he says that Zali Steggall is not one of them. The former Olympian is running against ex-prime minister Tony Abbott in the seat of Warringah. Turnbull, who is a private investor based in Singapore and the son of former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, says he wants to get more centrist MPs into parliament, as well as reducing the influence of the Murdoch family on Australian politics.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, GETUP LIMITED, BRONTE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN ELECTORAL COMMISSION

CFMEU’s election windfall

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Weekend Australian – Page: 18 & 19 : 15-Apr-19

The Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining & Energy Union has been fined some $7.9m in total since 2016, due to legal action instigated by the Australian Building & Construction Commission. The CFMMEU will benefit significantly if Labor wins the federal election and pushes ahead with plans to scrap the ABCC. The militant union and its officials would face much lower financial penalties for breaches of the Fair Work Act, while Labor would also abolish the national construction code. Meanwhile, employers’ groups are not unduly concerned about a potential conflict of interest for shadow workplace relations minister Brendan O’Connor, whose brother is the national president of the CFMMEU.

CORPORATES
CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MARITIME, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIAN MINES AND METALS ASSOCIATION (INCORPORATED), MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED, UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE

Tax attack kicks off campaign

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 12-Apr-19

The federal government has released Treasury modelling which suggests that tax revenue would rise by $387bn over the next decade if Labor wins the election on 18 May. Treasury estimates that Labor’s plans to scrap the second and third stages of the government’s income tax cuts package would increase the tax take by $230bn, which is consistent with Labor’s own estimate of $226bn. The modelling also shows that Australia’s tax-to-GDP ratio would rise to a record 25.9 per cent over the next decade if Labor wins the election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Workers join the barricades for ALP

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 5 : 12-Apr-19

ACTU secretary Sally McManus has described the federal election as an opportunity to "restore fairness" for working people, arguing that the Coalition’s legacies include record low wages growth, record levels of inequality and lack of job security. The ACTU intends to campaign in 28 seats during the election, while unions will target 17 seats in a national door-knocking campaign on the weekend of 13-14 April. Meanwhile, political activist GetUp will target 30 seats during the election, including those held by Peter Dutton, Greg Hunt and Tony Abbott.

CORPORATES
ACTU, GETUP LIMITED, VICTORIAN TRADES HALL COUNCIL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. REGISTERED ORGANISATIONS COMMISSION

A fair go and economy hums

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Original article by John Ferguson
The Australian – Page: 5 : 12-Apr-19

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten used the first day of the election campaign to emphasise that Labor will address issues such as low wages growth and concerns about the rising cost of living. He stressed that Labor will ensure a "fair go" for everyday Australians, as he sought to appeal to working-class and middle-class voters. Shorten also highlighted the lack of stable leadership within the Coalition since it gained office in 2013, which has resulted in three changes of prime minister.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Morrison plays trumps to open

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Original article by Rosie Lewis
The Australian – Page: 4 : 12-Apr-19

Prime Minister Scott Morrison emphasised the federal government’s economic credentials on the first day of the election campaign. He noted that 1.2 million jobs have been created since the Coalition was elected in 2013, while the Budget is set to return to surplus in 2019-20. Morrison also stressed that a strong economy rather than higher taxes will deliver essential services such as health and education. Morrison did not mention climate change in his first press conference, but he later stated that Australia will meet its carbon emission reduction targets.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Federal Election 2019: ALP (52.5%) starts ahead of L-NP (47.5%) but wrong to say Labor has election won – Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Apr-19

Yesterday Prime Minister Scott Morrison called the Federal Election for May 18, and the last weekend’s Roy Morgan ‘face-to-face’ poll showed the ALP (52.5%) cf. L-NP (47.5%) with a winning lead as official campaigning begins. However, the example of the 1993 Liberal ‘unloseable’ Federal election showed that one mis-step can swing the result of the election, when Opposition Leader John Hewson ‘stumbled’ over the impact of the GST on birthday cakes and subsequently lost the election. Prime Minister Morrison’s appeal to ‘trust’ in his re-election campaign is ‘gutsy’, but the real key is for leaders not to allow ‘distrust’ to attach to their campaigns and leadership. It is ‘distrust’ that really drives many electors’ voting decisions. Of more concern for electors are the areas where they ‘distrust’ a party or leader. What are electors worried about? The ALP has significant ‘distrust’ issues with their relationship with the unions and the ALP’s many potential changes to the tax system. For the L-NP the uncertainties about the change of leadership of the L-NP are still generating ‘distrust’, and the ‘shenanigans’ that big business – including financial institutions – have been engaging in are seen as a bigger problem driving ‘distrust’ in the L-NP than Labor. View the full 9-minute video with Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine explaining the key drivers for next month’s Federal Election at this link.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Rate cut to avoid poll date as economy becomes battleground

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 29 : 12-Apr-19

Financial markets have priced in a 25 basis point reduction in official interest rates by October, although the chances of a rate cut during the federal election campaign are seen to be low. Meanwhile, Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says historical analysis shows that movements in global sharemarkets tend to have a bigger impact on the local bourse than the outcome of a federal election. However, he notes that Labor’s policies such as income tax and franking credit reforms may weigh on shares and the Australian dollar.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Australian Futures Project launches The Perfect Candidate using Roy Morgan Issues data

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Apr-19

In a first for Australian politics, a digital candidate powered by data insights from real Australians has entered the Federal election race, to shift our national conversation from short-term problems to long-term solutions. Australia is stuck in a cycle of political short-termism and The Perfect Candidate (www.theperfectcandidate.org.au) is an unbiased voice of the people, driven by the most authoritative research ever released on Australians’ concerns. The Perfect Candidate is driven by data not bias and launching their campaign today in Sydney, they aim to empower Australians to hold our politicians to account and to ignite discussion amongst leaders and citizens about our long-term future. Created by the Australian Futures Project, a non-partisan, not-for profit organisation dedicated to ending short-termism in Australia, The Perfect Candidate allows Australians to search and understand key concerns of their local electorate and the whole country. Using data and analysis from Roy Morgan, policy statements on the websites of the political parties and independents and insights from the Australian Futures Project, Australians can compare these concerns to what is being prioritised and talked about by politicians, ultimately holding them to account.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN FUTURES PROJECT