ELECTIONS – AUSTRALIA

Kerryn Phelps expected to win Wentworth by-election although about 4000 postal votes still to be counted

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Oct-18

Independent candidate Kerryn Phelps is expected to win a close Wentworth by-election – although as Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said two days before the by-election, when asked who would win on Sky News: "Nobody would know!" At 7pm Sunday night the two-party preferred result was 51.1% for Phelps v 48.9% for the Liberals’ Dave Sharma. Sharma had 36,093 votes on a two-party basis while Phelps had 37,719, a difference of 1,626. The Liberals were gaining about 63.56% of postal votes already counted on a two-party basis, with 528 postal vote envelopes received but not processed. However, about 4,000 postal votes are yet to be returned to the Australian Electoral Commission. The Wentworth result rewrites the record books, with an 18 per cent swing against the Liberal Party on a two-party-preferred basis. Before Saturday night, the biggest 2PP swing recorded in by-elections since 1949 was in 1995 when the Liberals won the seat of Canberra – a 16.1 per cent swing.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Howard in late bid to rescue Libs

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Original article by Dennis Shanahan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 18-Oct-18

Former prime minister John Howard will campaign in the seat of Wentworth on behalf of Liberal candidate Dave Sharma. Malcolm Turnbull held the seat with a margin of 17 per cent, but Howard has warned that there is a high risk that the Liberals will lose Wentworth for the first time. He has also sent a letter to voters stressing that a Liberal win is necessary to ensure a stable government. Meanwhile, independent candidate Kerryn Phelps has condemned an email campaign in which it was alleged that she has withdrawn from the by-election after being diagnosed with HIV.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Phelps to trounce Liberals in key seat, party polling shows

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Original article by Andrew Clennell
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 17-Oct-18

Liberal Party candidate Dave Sharma seems set to lose the Wentworth by-election on 21 October, according to the party’s latest polling. It shows that independent candidate Kerryn Phelps leads Sharma 55-45 on a two-party-preferred basis. The Liberals’ previous polling in Wentworth showed that Sharma had a narrow lead over Phelps. Meanwhile, Phelps is under scrutiny for allegedly breaching electoral laws by making election-related social media posts without the required authorisation.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN ELECTORAL COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION LIMITED

Don’t vote for Libs: Turnbull’s son

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Original article by Andrew Clennell
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 12-Oct-18

Alex Turnbull has urged voters in Wentworth not to vote for the Liberal Party at the upcoming by-election. The son of former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull claims that the Liberal Party has been taken over by the "hard right", and that voters need to send a message to the federal government on climate change. Liberal candidate Dave Sharma is regarded as slightly ahead of independent candidate Dr Kerryn Phelps in polling. The government needs to win the by-election to retain its one-seat majority in the House of Representatives.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY, NEW SOUTH WALES. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

ALP launches fair go policy manifesto

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Original article by Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 8-Oct-18

Labor released a five-point plan that it will take to the next federal election at a rally in south-western Sydney on 7 October. The rally included speeches from Opposition leader Bill Shorten and deputy leader Tanya Plibersek, and was held on the same day as latest opinion polls showed that the federal government could lose up to 19 seats on the mainland at the next election. Shorten said that if Labor is elected, it would be the first time that Australia would have a government with 50 per cent female representation. He also stated that Labor is targeting 50 per cent of power to be generated from renewable energy by 2030.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

PM ups the ante on small biz tax cuts

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 21-Sep-18

Federal government sources have indicated that the Coalition is likely to seek to pass legislation prior to the next election aimed at bringing forward tax cuts for businesses with turnover of up to $50m. The tax relief for small businesses has already been legislated, but additional legislation would be required for the cuts to take effect earlier than 2026-27. Labor opposes a further reduction in the small business tax rate, but it could face the prospect of having to go into the election with a policy of reversing the additional tax cuts.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, CENTRE ALLIANCE, ONE NATION PARTY

Independent’s shot at Turnbull’s old seat a gift that will keep on giving for Labor

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Original article by Deborah Cornwall
The Australian – Page: 4 & 5 : 17-Sep-18

Former Australian Medical Association president Kerryn Phelps intends to finance her by-election campaign in the federal seat of Wentworth solely via crowdfunding and volunteers. Phelps says the major political parties’ lack of action on issues such as health care and climate change prompted her to contest the seat as an independent candidate. A senior Labor source has conceded that the party has little chance of winning Malcolm Turnbull’s former seat, but notes that Phelps’ decision to run will force the Liberal Party to commit financial resources to the by-election campaign.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION LIMITED

Wentworth by-election: Dave Sharma wins Liberal pre-selection

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Original article by Olivia Caisley
The Australian – Page: Online : 14-Sep-18

Dave Sharma has won Liberal Party pre-selection for the seat of Wentworth, previously held by former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull. Sharma, who is a former Australian ambassador to Israel, won from seven other candidates, including Katherine O’Regan, who had been backed by Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Sharma had been pressured to stand aside for a female candidate, with internal party polling indicating the Liberals would have a better chance of retaining Wentworth with a woman candidate. The Wentworth by-election will be held on 20 October.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA,{SHARE}AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY,{SHARE}DOUBLE BAY CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND MERCHANTS ASSOCIATION INCORPORATED

Polling shows Wentworth winnable with Liberal woman candidate

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Original article by Andrew Clennell, Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 11-Sep-18

Andrew Bragg has advised that he will not be seeking Liberal Party preselection for the seat of Wentworth, despite having been one of the early favourites to win. The seat has been made vacant by the resignation of Malcolm Turnbull, with Liberal members due to vote on his replacement on 13 September. Recent polling that Bragg himself paid for has indicated that the Liberals would have a four per cent better chance of winning Wentworth if it had a female candidate; Bragg says he commissioned the polling as he had heard Prime Minister Scott Morrison had wanted a women candidate to contest Wentworth.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Forster withdraws from Wentworth race

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Original article by Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 4-Sep-18

The Liberal Party will conduct a pre-selection ballot for the seat of Wentworth on 11 September. The seat has become vacant following Malcolm Turnbull’s decision to resign from federal parliament. Christine Forster, who is the sister of former Prime Minister Tony Abbott and a City of Sydney councillor, has announced she will not contest the ballot, citing concerns it could cause division within the Liberal Party. House of Representatives speaker Tony Smith is yet to announce a date for the Wentworth by-election.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, CITY OF SYDNEY, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, BRONTE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN GREENS