Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Oct-18

Independent candidate Kerryn Phelps is expected to win a close Wentworth by-election – although as Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said two days before the by-election, when asked who would win on Sky News: "Nobody would know!" At 7pm Sunday night the two-party preferred result was 51.1% for Phelps v 48.9% for the Liberals’ Dave Sharma. Sharma had 36,093 votes on a two-party basis while Phelps had 37,719, a difference of 1,626. The Liberals were gaining about 63.56% of postal votes already counted on a two-party basis, with 528 postal vote envelopes received but not processed. However, about 4,000 postal votes are yet to be returned to the Australian Electoral Commission. The Wentworth result rewrites the record books, with an 18 per cent swing against the Liberal Party on a two-party-preferred basis. Before Saturday night, the biggest 2PP swing recorded in by-elections since 1949 was in 1995 when the Liberals won the seat of Canberra – a 16.1 per cent swing.

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LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA