GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT – AUSTRALIA

Nation’s economic success little more than good luck

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Original article by David Uren, Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 8-Oct-18

Business Council of Australia CEO Jennifer Westacott argues that the nation’s GDP growth is primarily due to factors such as population growth, consumption and government spending, rather than productivity gains. She notes that productivity growth has fallen to its lowest levels since the 1970s, and she has stressed the risks facing the domestic economy. Westacott and Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry CEO James Pearson have both highlighted the federal government’s failure to deliver on policies such as the national energy guarantee and company tax cuts.

CORPORATES
BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Exports revive wage hope

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 : 7-Jun-18

The latest GDP data shows that the Australian economy expanded by one per cent in the March quarter and 3.1 per cent year-on-year. The economy recorded nominal growth of 2.2 per cent for the quarter, while real net national disposable income per capita rose by 1.5 per cent. Despite the better-than-expected GDP data, the Reserve Bank is still widely tipped to leave the cash rate on hold until at least late 2019, although growth in wages may be a key factor in the timing of any change in monetary policy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY

Growth to accelerate despite pressures

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 6-Jun-18

The consensus of economists is that the Australian economy expanded by 0.9 per cent in the March quarter, compared with growth of just 0.4 per cent in the last quarter of 2017. The Reserve Bank and the Treasury have previously flagged growth of 0.7 per cent to 0.8 per cent for the March quarter. Meanwhile, economists expect the economy to have expanded by 2.8 per cent year-on-year in the March quarter, up from 2.4 per cent growth in the December quarter. The quarterly GDP data will be released on 6 June.

CORPORATES
BLOOMBERG LP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Jobs surge but economy still stuck in neutral

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 4 : 8-Mar-18

Australia’s latest national accounts data shows that the economy grew by 0.4 per cent in the December 2017 quarter, and 2.4 per cent year-on-year. However, consumer spending grew by one per cent during the quarter, after revised growth of 0.5 per cent in the September quarter. Andrew Hanlan of Westpac warns that the strong growth in consumer spending may not last, noting the low growth in wages and the high level of consumer debt. The data shows that there was zero growth in the average wage during the December quarter, with annual wages growth of 1.6 per cent.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Slow growth puts a brake on rate rises

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 26 : 7-Dec-17

The latest GDP data has prompted financial markets to price in an 84 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase the cash rate by the end of 2018, down from 94 per cent previously. The economy expanded by a lower-than-expected 0.6 per cent in the September 2017 quarter, while year-on-year growth rose from 1.9 per cent to 2.8 per cent. Meanwhile, growth in household consumption slowed to just 0.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Income tax rises to save budget

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 4 : 20-Oct-17

The Parliamentary Budget Office estimates that personal income tax will account for 12.5 per cent of Australia’s GDP by 2020-21. This compares with 11.3 per cent of GDP at present and a record low of 9.3 per cent in 2009-10. The Federal Government’s May 2017 Budget had forecast that revenue from personal income tax will top $A253bn in 2021, which is 30 per cent higher than in 2016-17. Factors such as "bracket creep" and an increase in the Medicare levy to finance the National Disability Insurance Scheme are expected to offset low growth in wages.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Debt binge stifles jobs and growth: IMF

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 4-Oct-17

The International Monetary Fund has warned that policies which encourage consumers to increase their debt in the near-term have a negative effect on economic growth in the longer term. The IMF’s modelling concludes that a five per cent increase in the household debt-to-GDP ratio results in a 1.25 per cent fall in real GDP three years later. Australia’s household debt-to-income ratio now exceeds 190 per cent.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Kim’s bomb the bleak balance for the upbeat

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 4-Sep-17

Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says there is potential for equity markets to experience a correction, although this could depend on the response to North Korea’s test of a hydrogen bomb. Meanwhile, Oliver says profit growth in Australia remains significantly lower than in the US, Europe and Japan. He anticipates GDP growth of 0.5 per cent for the quarter and 1.5 per cent growth year-on-year. A survey by Bloomberg shows that the general consensus is for GDP growth of 0.7 per cent for the quarter and 1.8 per cent for the year to June.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Economy at slowest pace since GFC

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 8-Jun-17

The latest national accounts data shows that the Australian economy expanded by just 1.7 per cent in the year to March 2017, which is the lowest annual growth rate for eight years. GDP growth was 0.3 per cent in the March quarter, compared with 1.1 per cent in the December 2016 quarter. Treasurer Scott Morrison has downplayed concerns about the outlook for the economy and the implications for May 2017 Budget forecasts. He notes that 17 out of 20 industry sectors recorded growth during the March quarter, while business investment has risen for two consecutive quarters.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Outlook ‘tough’ as economy slows

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 8-Jun-17

Data from Credit Suisse shows that financial markets expect the cash rate to remain on hold in the next 12 months, following the release of the latest GDP data. The economy expanded by just 0.3 per cent in the March 2017 quarter, and year-on-year growth fell to an eight-year low of 1.7 per cent. The data will cast doubt on the Reserve Bank’s forecast of calendar year economic growth of 2.5-3.5 per cent. The Commonwealth Bank notes that the central bank will be adverse to easing the cash rate, as doing so could further inflate house prices.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED, GOODMAN GROUP – ASX GMG