INFLATION (FINANCE) – AUSTRALIA

Treasurer under pressure to fix budget after RBA lifts rates for first time in two years

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Original article by Shane Wright, Millie Muroi
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 4-Feb-26

The Opposition contends that Treasurer Jim Chalmers must accept responsibility for yesterday’s increase in official interest rates to 3.85 per cent. Shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien said in parliament that the 25 basis point increase is a direct consequence of the govermment’s "addiction to spending", arguing that it has kept inflation higher for longer. Chalmers has rejected suggestions that government spending has contributed to a rising inflation rate, noting that the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy statement did not mention it. Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has declined to commence on whether government spending is to blame for rising inflation, and noted that the central bank considers both private and public sector spending. The Reserve Bank now does not expect inflation to return to its target range of 2-3 per cent until mid-2028.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Big business urges $50b spending cut

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Original article by Lea Jurkovic
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Feb-26

The Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry has used its pre-budget submission to call for federal government spending to be scaled back in order to combat inflation. It contends that government spending should be reduced to 25 per cent of GDP, compared with the Treasury’s own forecast of about 27 per cent over the next two years. The ACCI has suggested that the NDIS, childcare, aged care, health and defence should have funding reduced; CEO Andrew McKellar warns that failing to address inflation could undermine Labor’s economic agenda to improve productivity. The Reserve Bank is widely tipped to increase official interest rates today, in response to the latest inflation data.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.6% in mid-January – up 0.1% points from the month of December

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations have remained high so far in 2026 and were at 5.6% for the week of 12-18 January, up 0.1% points from the full month of December 2025. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for December 2025 shows the measure at 5.5% for the month – up 0.4% points from the prior month of November, the highest monthly figure since July 2023. Looking back over the last six months, since mid-July, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.7% to 5.6%, and averaged 5.1%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for December shows increases in all five mainland States, but a decline in the island State of Tasmania (down 0.9% to 5.1%, and now clearly the lowest Inflation Expectations of any State). The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

IMF rebuke as inflation stays high

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Original article by Lea Jurkovic
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 20-Jan-26

The International Monetary Fund has used its latest World Economic Outlook update to note that Australia still has a problem with inflation. It commented that inflation has stayed above the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2 per cent to 3 per cent for some time, while it stated that the RBA should be cautious when it comes to setting interest rates. Commenting on the IMF’s report, Treasurer Jim Chalmers claimed that high inflation was not unique to Australia, while the IMF predicts global headline inflation will decline from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026, before falling to 3.4 per cent in 2027.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.6% in mid-December – up 0.3% points from the month of November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Jan-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations hit a two-year high of 5.6% for the week of 8-14 December 2025, up 0.3% points from the full month of November; this is the highest the index has been on a weekly basis since December 2023. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for November 2025 shows the measure at 5.1% for the month, up 0.1% points from the prior month of November, but since then inflationary pressures have increased. Looking back over the last six months, since mid-June, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.7% to 5.4%, and averaged 5.0%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for November shows increases around Australia in four States, but significant declines in Western Australia and South Australia. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Overheating economy pushes RBA to uncomfortable hike talks

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 10-Dec-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6 per cent on Tuesday had been widely expected, given the rise in both headline and underlying inflation in November. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock has stated that the underlying momentum in the economy suggests that further interest rate cuts may not be needed. Meanwhile, HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham says his firm believes that the RBA may increase the cash rate in the September quarter, while Andrew Ticehurst from Nomura expects interest rates to remain on hold throughout 2026. Financial markets in turn have priced in the potential for two interest rate rises next year.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are at 5.4% in late November – up 0.4% points from the month of October

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Nov-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations hit a near two-year high at 5.4% for the week of November 17-23, up 0.4% points from the full month of October; this is the highest the index has been on a weekly basis since December 2023. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for October shows the measure at 5.0% for the month – up 0.1% points from September, although since then inflationary pressures have increased. Looking back over the last six months, since early June, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.7% to 5.4% and averaged 5.0%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for October shows increases around Australia in all six States. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 5,099 Australians aged 14+ in October 2025.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA cautious on any further rate cuts

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Original article by Luke Kinsella
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 19-Nov-25

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy board meeting for November outline the circumstances under which it would consider further interest rate cuts. The minutes indicate that the RBA would only consider a rate cut if there is a material deterioration in the labour market or if households become more cautious about spending. The monetary policy board noted that inflationary pressures would be weaker under both scenarios, making interest rate cuts more likely. However, the RBA expects both the unemployment rate and economic growth to remain steady over the next several years.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Unions to pursue above-CPI pay rises

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 6-Nov-25

The Australian Manufacturing Workers Union’s national secretary Steve Murphy has accused the Reserve Bank of being "out of touch" after it forecast that inflation will remain above its target range for at least six months and there will be negative real wages growth in 2026. He says the RBA blames workers, but "profit-driven price hikes" and "corporate greed" are the real problem. Murphy adds that despite the forecast increase in the inflation rate, the AMWU will be able to achieve real wages growth in upcoming negotiations for new enterprise agreements. The Electrical Trades Union’s national secretary Michael Wright says it also will continue to deliver real pay rises for its members.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING WORKERS’ UNION, ELECTRICAL TRADES UNION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Inflation is going north, wages south

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-Nov-25

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has indicated that the current monetary policy easing cycle could potentially be over, after the central bank left the cash rate unchanged at 3.6 per cent yesterday. The RBA has reduced official interest rates three times in 2025, but financial markets expect the next rate cut to occur in December 2026. Meanwhile, the RBA expects both headline and underlying inflation to remain above its target range of 2-3 per cent for at least another six months. Shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien has blamed Labor for the RBA’s decision to leave the cash rate on hold, contending that government spending is growing more than four times faster than the Australian economy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA