INFLATION (FINANCE) – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.6% in mid-December – up 0.3% points from the month of November

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Jan-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations hit a two-year high of 5.6% for the week of 8-14 December 2025, up 0.3% points from the full month of November; this is the highest the index has been on a weekly basis since December 2023. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for November 2025 shows the measure at 5.1% for the month, up 0.1% points from the prior month of November, but since then inflationary pressures have increased. Looking back over the last six months, since mid-June, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.7% to 5.4%, and averaged 5.0%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for November shows increases around Australia in four States, but significant declines in Western Australia and South Australia. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Overheating economy pushes RBA to uncomfortable hike talks

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 10-Dec-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6 per cent on Tuesday had been widely expected, given the rise in both headline and underlying inflation in November. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock has stated that the underlying momentum in the economy suggests that further interest rate cuts may not be needed. Meanwhile, HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham says his firm believes that the RBA may increase the cash rate in the September quarter, while Andrew Ticehurst from Nomura expects interest rates to remain on hold throughout 2026. Financial markets in turn have priced in the potential for two interest rate rises next year.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are at 5.4% in late November – up 0.4% points from the month of October

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Nov-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations hit a near two-year high at 5.4% for the week of November 17-23, up 0.4% points from the full month of October; this is the highest the index has been on a weekly basis since December 2023. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for October shows the measure at 5.0% for the month – up 0.1% points from September, although since then inflationary pressures have increased. Looking back over the last six months, since early June, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.7% to 5.4% and averaged 5.0%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for October shows increases around Australia in all six States. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 5,099 Australians aged 14+ in October 2025.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA cautious on any further rate cuts

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Luke Kinsella
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 19-Nov-25

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy board meeting for November outline the circumstances under which it would consider further interest rate cuts. The minutes indicate that the RBA would only consider a rate cut if there is a material deterioration in the labour market or if households become more cautious about spending. The monetary policy board noted that inflationary pressures would be weaker under both scenarios, making interest rate cuts more likely. However, the RBA expects both the unemployment rate and economic growth to remain steady over the next several years.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Unions to pursue above-CPI pay rises

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 6-Nov-25

The Australian Manufacturing Workers Union’s national secretary Steve Murphy has accused the Reserve Bank of being "out of touch" after it forecast that inflation will remain above its target range for at least six months and there will be negative real wages growth in 2026. He says the RBA blames workers, but "profit-driven price hikes" and "corporate greed" are the real problem. Murphy adds that despite the forecast increase in the inflation rate, the AMWU will be able to achieve real wages growth in upcoming negotiations for new enterprise agreements. The Electrical Trades Union’s national secretary Michael Wright says it also will continue to deliver real pay rises for its members.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING WORKERS’ UNION, ELECTRICAL TRADES UNION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Inflation is going north, wages south

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-Nov-25

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has indicated that the current monetary policy easing cycle could potentially be over, after the central bank left the cash rate unchanged at 3.6 per cent yesterday. The RBA has reduced official interest rates three times in 2025, but financial markets expect the next rate cut to occur in December 2026. Meanwhile, the RBA expects both headline and underlying inflation to remain above its target range of 2-3 per cent for at least another six months. Shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien has blamed Labor for the RBA’s decision to leave the cash rate on hold, contending that government spending is growing more than four times faster than the Australian economy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are at 4.8% in late October – down 0.1% points from the month of September

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Oct-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 4.8% for the week of 20-26 October, down 0.1% points from the full month of September. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for September shows the measure at 4.9% for the month – down 0.1% points from August. Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% to 5.2% since the start of September 2024 and averaged 4.8%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for September shows mixed results, with decreases in Western Australia, Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia, unchanged in Victoria, and up in Tasmania.. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,097 Australians aged 14+ in September 2025.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

‘Not confident’: RBA pours cold water on Labor’s housing dream

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Oct-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia had been widely tipped to leave the cash rate unchanged at its monetary policy board meeting yesterday. Financial markets have priced in a 40 per cent chance of a rate cut at the next meeting in November, but RBA governor Michele Bullock says progress on returning core inflation to its mid-point target of 2.5 per cent will determine the next move on interest rates. Quarterly inflation data to be released ahead of the next board meeting is likely to be crucial. Meanwhile, Bullock has warned that federal government action to boost supply is unlikely to address the housing market’s structural deficit in the next two years.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are at 5% in late September – the same as for the full month of August

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Sep-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were 5% for the week of 15-21 September, the same as for the full month of August. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for August shows the measure at 5% for the month, up 0.2% points from July and the highest monthly Inflation Expectations since January 2025 (also 5%). Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% to 5.2% since the start of August 2024 and averaged 4.8%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for August shows mixed results, with increases in Queensland, Western Australia, New South Wales, unchanged in Victoria and Tasmania, and down in South Australia. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,099 Australians aged 14+ in August 2025.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations up slightly to 5% in late August – up from 4.8% for the month of July

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Aug-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were 5% for the week of 18-24 August, up 0.2% points from the month of July but down from the peak of 5.2% in early August. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for July 2025 shows the measure at 4.8% for the month – unchanged from June and level with the average so far this year (also 4.8%). Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% to 5.2% since the start of July 2024 and averaged 4.8%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for July shows mixed results, with increases in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania; this was offset by decreases in Victoria and Western Australia, leaving the overall figure unchanged from a month ago. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,036 Australians aged 14+ in July 2025.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ