INFLATION (FINANCE) – AUSTRALIA

Rate cut chances tumble on inflation rise

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 30-Jan-20

Official data shows that headline inflation rose 0.7 per cent in the December quarter, compared with 0.5 per cent in the three months to September. The annual inflation rate rose to 1.8 per cent. Factors such as higher prices for fruit, meat and petrol contributed to the increase in the inflation rate. Ben Udy of Capital Economics says the CPI data should ensure that the Reserve Bank of Australia leaves the cash rate on hold in February. The central bank expects core inflation to rise to 1.8 per cent by the end of 2020.

CORPORATES
CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Price expectations much higher for Young Parents than Young Couples with no children

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Jan-20

Australians as a whole expect prices to increase by 4% annually over the next two years, according to Roy Morgan surveys conducted in December. This is a slight increase of 0.1% on expectations in November, but down 0.2% on a year ago. Comparing price expectations by Household Life-Cycle shows that Young Parents expect prices to increase by 4.5% annually over the next two years – higher expectations than that of any other household type. In contrast, Young Couples who have no children expect price increases of only 3.3% per year. Most Household Life-Cycle segments cluster in the middle between these two, around the national average of 4%. Mid-Life Families (4.1%) and Young Singles (4.1%) are slightly higher, Older Households (4%) are right on the national average and Mid-Life Households (3.9%) are slightly below it.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Price expectations higher in Country Areas than Capital Cities

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Nov-19

Surveyed in October, Australians as a whole expect prices to increase by 4.1% annually over the next two years. This is up very slightly (0.1%) on how they were feeling in September, but is down to a greater degree (0.4%) on their expectations a year earlier. Comparing price expectations around Australia reveals a significant divide between Country Areas with higher price inflation expectations than Australia’s Capital Cities. Australians in Country Areas expect prices to rise by 4.3% annually over the next two years, compared to only 4% in the Capital Cities. Price expectations in Country Victoria (4.8%) are higher than anywhere else in Australia and significantly higher than in the Victorian capital of Melbourne (4.1%). There is a similar dynamic at play in Country NSW (4.2%) compared to NSW Capital Sydney (3.8%) although the gap is narrower. The two exceptions to this rule are Queensland in which price expectations are at 4.4% throughout the State and South Australia. Price expectations in Adelaide (3.9%) are slightly higher than in Country South Australia (3.8%) although both are below the national average.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

CPI cools further rate cut chances

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 31-Oct-19

Official data shows that the consumer price index rose 0.5 per cent during the September quarter and 1.7 per cent year-on-year. Trimmed mean inflation was 0.4 per cent during the quarter and 1.6 per cent for the year to September. With the inflation rate remaining below the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent for a 15th consecutive quarter, the cash rate now seems likely to stay unchanged at 0.75 per cent for the rest of the year. Craig James of CommSec says the three interest rate cuts in 2019 have spooked consumers.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, ERNST AND YOUNG, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

Home owners and renters take different views on the level of future inflation

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Oct-19

Surveyed in September, Australians as a whole said they expected inflation to increase by 4% annually over the next two years. This is up very slightly (0.1%) on how they were feeling the previous month, but it is down a little (0.3%) on their expectations a year earlier. However there was a notable difference in the expectations of home owners compared to renters, with the latter taking a much more pessimistic outlook. Renters expect inflation to rise 4.7% over the next two years, while home owners expect inflation of 3.8% and those paying off mortgages are expecting only a 3.4% rise. September Inflation Expectations are based on personal interviews with a nationally representative sample of 4,012 Australians aged 14+. October survey responses will reveal the effect of the RBA’s decision to cut interest rates earlier this month, the third such cut this year, taking them to a record low of 0.75%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Inflation Expectations down to 3.9% in August

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Sep-19

In August, Australians expected annual inflation of 3.9% over the next two years. This is down 0.2% on July and down 0.4% on a year ago in August 2018. Inflation Expectations decreased in August after the ABS reported Australia experienced its slowest GDP growth since the GFC in the year to June 2019 of only 1.4%. Analysing Inflation Expectations by gender and age compared to a year ago shows the biggest declines have been for women of all ages. Despite this, women continue to have higher Inflation Expectations than men across all age groups, while Analysis of Inflation Expectations by State shows decreases in Australia’s two largest states and a significant decline in Western Australia drove the index down in August. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey which is based on in-depth personal interviews conducted face-to-face with over 50,000 Australians per annum in their own homes. Inflation Expectations in August are based on personally interviewing a nationwide representative sample of 3,988 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Inflation Expectations jump to 4.1% in July after RBA rate cuts

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Aug-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.1% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for July 2019. This is up 0.3% on June, but down 0.2% on July 2018. Inflation Expectations increased in July following back-to-back interest rate cuts in June and July. Amongst the generations, Inflation Expectations have fallen most significantly for Baby Boomers and Millennials. Analysis by voting intentions shows that Inflation Expectations increased for supporters of all three leading parties. However, Inflation Expectations for electors as a whole are now below those of the general population, at 3.9%. July Inflation Expectations are based on personally interviewing a nationwide representative sample of 5,031 Australians aged 14+ face-to -face in their own homes.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

RBA lowers GDP, inflation forecasts

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 7-Aug-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2019 from 2.75 per cent to 2.5 per cent, after leaving the cash rate unchanged on 6 August. Central bank governor Philip Lowe again indicated that official interest rates will remain low for some time, and that any change in monetary policy will depend on the outlook for the unemployment rate and inflation. The inflation rate was 1.6 per cent in the year to June, and the RBA now does not expect it to reach the bottom end of its 2-3 per cent target range until 2021.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

Fed cut lifts pressure on RBA board

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Aug-19

Economists suggest that better-than-expected inflation data for the June quarter will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave official interest rates on hold in August. The consumer price index rose 0.6 per cent during the quarter and 1.6 per cent year-on-year. However, inflation remains well below the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent, and further monetary policy easing is possible later in 2019 if the unemployment rate does not fall. The US Federal Reserve’s August interest rate cut may also force the RBA to act before the end of the year.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

RBA could cut cash rate as soon as August

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Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 30-Jul-19

The futures market has priced in a 20 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate for a third consecutive month in August. Inflation data to be released on 31 July may influence the timing of any rate cut; market expectations are for a CPI of 1.5 per cent for the June quarter, below the RBA’s forecast of 1.6 per cent. National Australia Bank economist Tapas Strickland says the CPI reading would probably need to be around 1.3 per cent or 1.4 per cent for the central bank to reduce the cash rate in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK