Inflation Expectations down to 3.9% in August

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Sep-19

In August, Australians expected annual inflation of 3.9% over the next two years. This is down 0.2% on July and down 0.4% on a year ago in August 2018. Inflation Expectations decreased in August after the ABS reported Australia experienced its slowest GDP growth since the GFC in the year to June 2019 of only 1.4%. Analysing Inflation Expectations by gender and age compared to a year ago shows the biggest declines have been for women of all ages. Despite this, women continue to have higher Inflation Expectations than men across all age groups, while Analysis of Inflation Expectations by State shows decreases in Australia’s two largest states and a significant decline in Western Australia drove the index down in August. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey which is based on in-depth personal interviews conducted face-to-face with over 50,000 Australians per annum in their own homes. Inflation Expectations in August are based on personally interviewing a nationwide representative sample of 3,988 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Inflation Expectations jump to 4.1% in July after RBA rate cuts

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Aug-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.1% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for July 2019. This is up 0.3% on June, but down 0.2% on July 2018. Inflation Expectations increased in July following back-to-back interest rate cuts in June and July. Amongst the generations, Inflation Expectations have fallen most significantly for Baby Boomers and Millennials. Analysis by voting intentions shows that Inflation Expectations increased for supporters of all three leading parties. However, Inflation Expectations for electors as a whole are now below those of the general population, at 3.9%. July Inflation Expectations are based on personally interviewing a nationwide representative sample of 5,031 Australians aged 14+ face-to -face in their own homes.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

RBA lowers GDP, inflation forecasts

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 7-Aug-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2019 from 2.75 per cent to 2.5 per cent, after leaving the cash rate unchanged on 6 August. Central bank governor Philip Lowe again indicated that official interest rates will remain low for some time, and that any change in monetary policy will depend on the outlook for the unemployment rate and inflation. The inflation rate was 1.6 per cent in the year to June, and the RBA now does not expect it to reach the bottom end of its 2-3 per cent target range until 2021.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

Fed cut lifts pressure on RBA board

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Aug-19

Economists suggest that better-than-expected inflation data for the June quarter will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave official interest rates on hold in August. The consumer price index rose 0.6 per cent during the quarter and 1.6 per cent year-on-year. However, inflation remains well below the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent, and further monetary policy easing is possible later in 2019 if the unemployment rate does not fall. The US Federal Reserve’s August interest rate cut may also force the RBA to act before the end of the year.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

RBA could cut cash rate as soon as August

Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 30-Jul-19

The futures market has priced in a 20 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate for a third consecutive month in August. Inflation data to be released on 31 July may influence the timing of any rate cut; market expectations are for a CPI of 1.5 per cent for the June quarter, below the RBA’s forecast of 1.6 per cent. National Australia Bank economist Tapas Strickland says the CPI reading would probably need to be around 1.3 per cent or 1.4 per cent for the central bank to reduce the cash rate in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Inflation sentiment defies Reserve Bank projections

Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 12-Jul-19

Roy Morgan’s monthly inflation expectations survey shows that consumers expect inflation of 3.8 per cent for each of the next two years. This compares with the official inflation rate of 1.3 per cent for the year to March, and the Reserve Bank’s inflation target of 2-3 per cent. Julian McCrann of Roy Morgan says the decline in the housing market has been a big driver of lower inflation expectations in 2019.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Inflation Expectations down to 3.8% in June as RBA cuts rates

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Jul-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 3.8% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for June 2019. This is down 0.3% on May and down 0.7% on June 2018. Inflation Expectations have decreased around Australia in June, and are down compared to a year ago, led by declines for both employed and unemployed Australians as well as across different occupations and employment categories. Analysis by voting intentions shows that Inflation Expectations for L-NP supporters fell 0.1% to 3.3% in June, while Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters dropped by 0.3% to 3.7%. Inflation Expectations for Greens supporters were unchanged at 3.6%. June Inflation Expectations are based on personally interviewing a nationwide representative sample of 3,984 Australians aged 14+ face-to -face in their own homes.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Inflation Expectations rebound to 4.1% in May as L-NP re-elected

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jun-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.1% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for May 2019. This is a significant rebound from the record low of 3.7% in April, and down 0.2% on May 2018. Despite the increase in May, Inflation Expectations have decreased around Australia compared to a year ago, although the decline has been concentrated in Capital Cities, with Inflation Expectations in Country Areas unchanged on a year ago. Analysis by voting intentions shows that Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters increased 0.2% to 4% in May, while Inflation Expectations for L-NP supporters were unchanged at 3.4%. Inflation Expectations for Greens supporters declined by 0.2%, to 3.6%. May Inflation Expectations are based on personally interviewing a nationwide sample of 4,011 Australians aged 14+ face-to -face in their own homes.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Ex-RBA deputy queries rate cut

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 6-Jun-19

Stephen Grenville was the Reserve Bank of Australia’s deputy governor when it introduced inflation targeting in 1996. However, he has questioned whether the inflation target of 2-3 per cent is still necessary, as well as the central bank’s decision to reduce the cash rate to a record low of 1.25 per cent. Grenville argues that there needs to be more focus on the role of fiscal policy in stimulating the economy. Inflation has been below the RBA’s target range for several years, but governor Philip Lowe says there is no need for any changes to the monetary policy framework at present.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, LOWY INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY, OUTLOOK ECONOMICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Inflation Expectations dropped to a record low of 3.7% in April

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-May-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 3.7% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for April 2019. This is down 0.3% on March and down 0.8% on April 2018, and a new record low for the indicator. Inflation Expectations have now dropped to 1.2% points below the nine-year average of 4.9%, the largest gap below average since late 2015. Analysis by voting intentions shows that Inflation Expectations for L-NP supporters have dropped to only 3.4%, down 0.7% from a year ago, while those of ALP supporters are now just above the national average at 3.8%, also down by 0.7%. The Inflation Expectations of Greens supporters are in comparison little changed from a year ago at 3.8%, down by only 0.2%. April Inflation Expectations are based on personally interviewing a nationwide sample of 4,154 Australians aged 14+ face-to-face in their own homes.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS