INFLATION (FINANCE) – AUSTRALIA

Bullock rebuffs Labor on rates

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 30-Sep-26

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has reiterated that "domestic capacity pressures" have been the key driver of the inflation rate, rather than the Iran war. She notes that while the conflict in the Middle East has "made things much worse", there was already excess demand in the economy and the RBA had started increasing the cash rate before the war began. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has persistently claimed that the war has been the primary source of Australia’s inflation challenge, rather than government spending. Bullock has warned that the RBA may need to follow up yesterday’s increase in the cash rate with another one if it is to prevent high inflation from becoming embedded across the economy. Financial markets have fully priced in a rise in the cash rate by February 2027.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

RBA flags need for 5pc jobless rate

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Original article by Grace Lagan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 23-Sep-26

Australia’s official unemployment rate is currently 4.5 per cent, but Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock says the central bank still considers the labour market to be "tight". Bullock has expressed her view that an unemployment rate of between 4.5 per cent and five per cent will "probably take enough heat out of the labour market" to ease pressure on inflation. Based on the latest jobs data, an unemployment rate of five per cent would mean that about 83,000 additional people would have to be out of work if the size of the labour force remains the same. Meanwhile, with the RBA’s monetary policy board widely tipped to increase the cash rate next week, Bullock has warned that the central bank’s focus must be on keeping inflation expectations in check.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 6.1% in late August – up 0.5% points from the month of July

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Aug-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations declined early in the month of July but have now increased for six out of the last seven weeks since mid-July, as cuts to the petrol and diesel fuel excises were wound back in early July and ended in early August. Inflation Expectations are now at 6.1% for the week of 17-23 August, up 0.5% points from the month of July. The latest weekly reading is just 0.1% points below the average of 6.2% for Inflation Expectations over the 26 weeks since the Iran War began. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for July shows the measure at 5.6% for the month – down 0.4% points from June. Inflation Expectations hit a record monthly high of 7% for April 2026 following the US and Israel attack on Iran but then dropped rapidly. However, the recent standoff has sent Inflation Expectations back up for six of the last seven weeks. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,113 Australians aged 14+ in June 2026.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Key costs that rose 50pc in five years

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Original article by Anthony Keane
The Australian – Page: 4 : 26-Aug-26

Analysis of official price data for the last five years shows that the cost of some household products and services has risen significantly more than the overall inflation increase of 24 per cent over this period. The cost of household gas has risen by 48 per cent since mid-2021, while the price of cooking oil and fats is up 47 per cent; meanwhile, the average household is paying 38 per cent more for electricity than five years ago, while the price of both milk and coffee has risen by 35 per cent. AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver says inflation is likely to slow in coming months, but he warns that it will be "fairly painful" for households for at least the next year; he adds that the inflation outlook means the Reserve Bank is likely to increase the cash rate again by the end of 2026.

CORPORATES
AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Bullock rings alarm on living standards

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 29-Jul-26

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has warned that slowing productivity growth is making the domestic economy more vulnerable to global shocks. She also stated that the nation’s living standards will continue to stagnate unless the issue of productivity is addressed. Bullock also said the RBA will be open to further interest rate rises if this is deemed necessary to achieve its mandate of keeping the unemployment rate as low as sustainably possible while returning inflation to its target range of 2-3 per cent. Inflation data for the June quarter will be released today, and could determine whether there is another official interest rate rise in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.9% in late July – down 0.1% points from the month of June

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jul-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations declined slightly in the month of June but have stabilised so far during July as the situation in the Middle East has deteriorated and are at 5.9% for the week of 20-26 July, down 0.1% points from the month of June. The latest weekly reading is 0.3% points below the average for Inflation Expectations of 6.2% over the 22 weeks since the Iran War began. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for June shows the measure at 6% for the month – down 0.3% points from May. Inflation Expectations spiked to a record monthly high of 7% for April following the US and Israel attack on Iran, but then dropped significantly; however, the recent renewal of fighting has sent Inflation Expectations back up for three straight weeks since early July. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,113 Australians aged 14+ in June 2026.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.8% in late June – down 0.5% points from the month of May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jun-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations declined sharply in the month of May 2026, and have continued this downward trend so far during June; Inflation Expectations are at 5.8% for the week of 15-21 June, down 0.5% points from the month of May. The latest weekly reading is now below the average for Inflation Expectations over the first 24 weeks of 2026 of 6.1%. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for May shows the measure at 6.3% for the month – down 0.7% points from the prior month of April, returning to its level in March (also 6.3%). Inflation Expectations spiked to a record weekly high of 7.3% (23-29 March) and record monthly high of 7% for April, following the US and Israel attack on Iran, but have dropped significantly over the last two months as a ceasefire was called. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,104 Australians aged 14+ in May 2026.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Rate rise cycle not over yet: Bullock

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 17-Jun-26

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has welcomed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate on hold at 4.35 per cent. Chalmers has attributed the monetary policy board’s unanimous decision to factors such as the federal government’s "responsible" budget and the US-Iran peace deal. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock has not ruled out further interest rate rises, noting that inflation remains high and the government’s budget tax reforms have resulted in increased uncertainty across the economy. Bullock adds that the RBA expects economic growth to slow but it is not forecasting a recession.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rate hold expectations on slowdown

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Original article by Lea Jurkovic
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 28-May-26

Figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday show that the nation’s headline inflation rate declined from 4.6 per cent in March to 4.2 per cent in April, which was lower than the forecast of 4.4 per cent. Fuel prices fell by seven per cent in April after the federal government cut the fuel excise to $0.263, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers claiming that inflation would have increased to 4.7 per cent without the cut to the fuel excise, while the slowing of inflation in April has increased expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave interest rates on hold in June.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS,{SPACE]AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY,{SPACE]RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Treasury warns of inflation at 7.25pc

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 4 : 13-May-26

The budget papers show that the Treasury’s base case is that the inflation rate will ease to 2.5 per cent in 2027, after peaking at a forecast five per cent in mid-2026. This is based on expectations that the price of crude oil will fall; however, the Treasury’s worst-case scenario modelling suggests that inflation will rise above seven per cent if a protracted war in the Middle East results in the crude oil price rising above $US200 a barrel in the September quarter. This would in turn reduce real GDP growth by 0.5 per cent over the next two financial years and result in an official unemployment rate of nearly five per cent in 2027-28.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY