INFLATION (FINANCE) – AUSTRALIA

Treasury warns of inflation at 7.25pc

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 4 : 13-May-26

The budget papers show that the Treasury’s base case is that the inflation rate will ease to 2.5 per cent in 2027, after peaking at a forecast five per cent in mid-2026. This is based on expectations that the price of crude oil will fall; however, the Treasury’s worst-case scenario modelling suggests that inflation will rise above seven per cent if a protracted war in the Middle East results in the crude oil price rising above $US200 a barrel in the September quarter. This would in turn reduce real GDP growth by 0.5 per cent over the next two financial years and result in an official unemployment rate of nearly five per cent in 2027-28.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Handouts row: Take a hike, says Reserve

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston, Thomas Henry
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 6-May-26

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to increase the cash rate to 4.35 per cent yesterday will add to the pressure that families and businesses are already facing. He adds that the federal governments intends to play a helpful rather than harmful role in the fight against inflation. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock has cautioned against giving households more money in next week’s budget, arguing that this would make it harder for the central bank to bring inflation under control. AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver says the government should reduce public spending in the budget to help alleviate underlying inflation pressures, while also introducing reforms aimed at boosting productivity and capacity in the economy.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

Traders see end in sight for RBA rate rises

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Cecile Lefort, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 6-May-26

Money markets still expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to increase official interest rates by another 25 basis points by September; at 4.6 per cent, the cash rate would be at its highest level since 2011. However, bond traders now expect just one more rate rise in 2026, with the chances of two more increases having been pared back from 80 per cent to 65 per cent. IFM Investors’ chief economist Alex Joiner says the RBA’s revised economic forecasts imply that its preferred measure of underlying inflation will return to its target of 2.5 per cent by February. He says this suggests that the central bank could switch to an easing bias in late 2026 or early 2027.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 6.6% in late April – up 0.3% points from the month of March

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Apr-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased in the month of March 2026 and have continued to increase in April as the US and Israel war on Iran has continued, and are now at 6.6% for the week of 20-26 April (up 0.3% points from the month of March). Inflation Expectations have averaged 6.1% over the first 16 weeks of 2026. However, a look at monthly Inflation Expectations for March shows the measure at 6.3% for the month (up 1% point from the prior month of February, and 0.2% points above the current average for 2026). Looking back over the last six months, since mid-October 2025, weekly Inflation Expectations have averaged 5.8% over this extended period. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,115 Australians aged 14+ in March 2026.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA delivers recession warning

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Lea Jurkovic
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 18-Mar-26

The latest official interest rate increase will put further on the federal government ahead of the budget in May. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Australian economy was already facing an inflation challenge, and the Iran war has made this harder. Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has warned that a recession is a possibility if inflation is not reined in; she has also emphasised the need to clamp down on inflation before it spreads across the economy. Bullock adds that inflation was already too high before the rise in petrol prices due to the war, and the cost of petrol was not the reason for the rate increase. The RBA’s monetary policy board voted 5-4 to increase the cash rate on Tuesday, and Bullock says the board’s split was in relation to the timing of a rate increase rather than the need for one.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

War cost to Aussie hip pockets

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Greg Brown, Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 4-Mar-26

The Treasury has advised the federal government that the initial rise in oil prices following the airstrikes on Iran could increase Australia’s inflation rate by 0.15 per cent. Treasury also stated that inflation may rise by about 0.26 per cent if the conflict lasts for 18 months, and warned that any damage to gas production infrastructure in Qatar – which accounts for 20 per cent of global supply – would add to domestic inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, Resources Minister Madeleine King says Australia’s gas market is in a better position to absorb the impacts of the war in the Middle East than in 2022, when the invasion of Ukraine caused a surge in gas prices. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock says the war could result in higher interest rates, noting that inflation is already elevated.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, SCIENCE AND RESOURCES

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.2% in mid-February – down 0.3% points from the month of January

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Feb-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations have remained high so far in 2026, averaging 5.4% over the first seven weeks and were at 5.2% for the week of 16-22 February (down 0.3% points from the full month of January). A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for January shows the measure at 5.5% for the month – unchanged from the prior month of December, and the equal highest monthly figure since July 2023. Looking back over the last six months, since late August 2025, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.7% to 5.6%, and averaged 5.2%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for January shows increases in Tasmania, Western Australia, New South Wales and Victoria, but sharp declines in both Queensland and South Australia cancelling out the overall movement. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 3,023 Australians aged 14+ in January 2026.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Treasurer under pressure to fix budget after RBA lifts rates for first time in two years

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Shane Wright, Millie Muroi
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 4-Feb-26

The Opposition contends that Treasurer Jim Chalmers must accept responsibility for yesterday’s increase in official interest rates to 3.85 per cent. Shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien said in parliament that the 25 basis point increase is a direct consequence of the govermment’s "addiction to spending", arguing that it has kept inflation higher for longer. Chalmers has rejected suggestions that government spending has contributed to a rising inflation rate, noting that the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy statement did not mention it. Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has declined to commence on whether government spending is to blame for rising inflation, and noted that the central bank considers both private and public sector spending. The Reserve Bank now does not expect inflation to return to its target range of 2-3 per cent until mid-2028.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Big business urges $50b spending cut

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Lea Jurkovic
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Feb-26

The Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry has used its pre-budget submission to call for federal government spending to be scaled back in order to combat inflation. It contends that government spending should be reduced to 25 per cent of GDP, compared with the Treasury’s own forecast of about 27 per cent over the next two years. The ACCI has suggested that the NDIS, childcare, aged care, health and defence should have funding reduced; CEO Andrew McKellar warns that failing to address inflation could undermine Labor’s economic agenda to improve productivity. The Reserve Bank is widely tipped to increase official interest rates today, in response to the latest inflation data.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.6% in mid-January – up 0.1% points from the month of December

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations have remained high so far in 2026 and were at 5.6% for the week of 12-18 January, up 0.1% points from the full month of December 2025. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for December 2025 shows the measure at 5.5% for the month – up 0.4% points from the prior month of November, the highest monthly figure since July 2023. Looking back over the last six months, since mid-July, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.7% to 5.6%, and averaged 5.1%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for December shows increases in all five mainland States, but a decline in the island State of Tasmania (down 0.9% to 5.1%, and now clearly the lowest Inflation Expectations of any State). The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ