INFLATION (FINANCE) – AUSTRALIA

Inflation Expectations down 0.2% points to 5.4% in September – before the petrol excise returned in full

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Oct-22

In September 2022, Australians expected inflation of 5.4% annually over the next two years, down 0.2% points from August. Inflation Expectations in September are 0.9% points higher than a year ago, and 2.2% points above the record low of 3.2% reached in June 2020. Although Inflation Expectations have dropped for a second straight month, the return of the full petrol excise at the end of September is set to lead to higher inflation expectations going forward. A deeper look at Inflation Expectations by employment status shows that the largest increase has been for people who are unemployed, up 2.6% points to 6.4% since the measure reached a record low in June 2020. The second highest Inflation Expectations are for those people who are under-employed, employed part-time but wanting more work, up 2% points to 5.8% since June 2020. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations were highest in New South Wales at 5.8% and Tasmania at 5.6%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of 4,700 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,069 Australians aged 14+ in September.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Chalmers warns of rates-driven inflation

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Original article by Ronald Mizen, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 12-Oct-22

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the world is facing a "substantial" global economic downturn, although he adds that the federal government’s first Budget on 25 October will not forecast a recession in Australia. Chalmers has also warned that the widening gap between interest rates in Australia and the US could boost inflation by putting downward pressure on the Australian dollar and making imports more expensive. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund now expects the Australian economy to grow by just 1.9 per cent in 2023; it had previously forecast growth of 2.2 per cent. The IMF has also downgraded its global growth forecast.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

RBA slows its rate pace from breakneck to merely galloping

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-Oct-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has indicated that further interest rises are likely as the central bank seeks to bring inflation under control. The RBA defied the expectations of most economists and investors by increasing the cash rate by just 25 basis points on Tuesday, lifting it to 2.6 per cent. The RBA has become the first major central bank to scale back the size of interest rate increases in the current monetary policy tightening cycle, having increased the cash rate by 50 basis points at each of its previous four monthly board meetings. Australia’s four major banks have increased their variable mortgage interest rates by 25 basis points in line with the cash rate.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA deliberately setting up for a recession: ACTU

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Original article by Michael Read, David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 10-Aug-22

The ACTU has released a policy paper which argues that full and secure employment should be the top macroeconomic priority for the Jobs and Skills Summit. The report was written by Jim Stanford from the Centre for Future Work; he argues that the Reserve Bank’s "whatever it takes" approach to returning inflation to its target range means it is willing to cause a recession and massive job losses in order to do so. The ACTU wants the summit to consider a fairer and more comprehensive inflation-reducing policy, and greater regulation of labour markets to ensure that real wages growth is in line with productivity.

CORPORATES
ACTU, THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE LIMITED. CENTRE FOR FUTURE WORK, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Inflation Expectations up 0.2% points to 5.9% in July – the highest monthly rating since August 2012

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Aug-22

In July 2022, Australians expected inflation of 5.9% annually over the next two years, up 0.2% points from June. Inflation Expectations in July are now 1.8% points higher than a year ago, and 2.5% points above the near record low of 3.4% in July 2020. A look at Inflation Expectations by socio-economic quintile shows large increases across the board since the measure hit record lows in mid-2020 during Victoria’s second COVID-19 wave. Inflation Expectations are lowest for the top ‘AB Quintile’ at 5.3%, although this is up 2.8% points since mid-2020 – the equal largest increase of any socio-economic quintile. Inflation Expectations are progressively higher for each subsequent socio-economic quintile. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations were highest in Tasmania in July at 7%, far higher than any other State. Next highest was the largest State of NSW at 6.3% – also well above the national average. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of 4,700 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 7,484 Australians aged 14+ in July 2022.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Higher interest rates tipped to bite

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Aug-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has reiterated that higher interest rates are necessary to return inflation to the target range of 2-3 per cent and to create a sustainable balance of demand and supply. Financial markets are now pricing in a cash rate of three per cent by December, following the RBA’s third consecutive increase of 50 basis points on Tuesday. The cash rate is now at a six-year high of 1.85 per cent, and many economists expect a rate rise of either 25 or 50 basis points in September. Meanwhile, the RBA has downgraded its economic growth forecast for both 2023 and 2024 to just 1.75 per cent, while it expects the official unemployment rate to reach four per cent by the end of 2024.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Wage hikes ‘risk economy’: Lowe

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 22-Jun-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has downplayed the prospect of a recession, noting that the nation’s economic fundamentals are strong and the jobless rate is at a five-decade low. However, Lowe has warned of the need for wage restraint, arguing that across-the-board pay rises of five per cent or more could see high inflation become entrenched. He contends that wage increases of around 3.5 per cent are more appropriate and sustainable in the current environment. Lowe has also reiterated his view that inflation will peak at around seven per cent before falling in early 2023, but he cautions that it will not return to the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent for some time.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Woolworths freezes price of everyday items

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Original article by Carrie LaFrenz
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 16-Jun-22

Grocery retailer Woolworths has responded to the rising cost of living by announcing that it will freeze the price of essentials such as sugar, flour and frozen peas until the end of 2022. CEO Brad Banducci says the spike in inflation has now affected prices in most grocery categories, having initially been largely confined to meat and imported products. Woolworths’ average prices rose by 2.7 per cent during the March quarter, and about 40 per cent of its suppliers requested a further price increase in May.

CORPORATES
WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW

Inflation Expectations drop 0.2% points to 5.3% in May, but are higher in the second half of May than the first

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Jun-22

In May 2022, Australians expected inflation of 5.3% annually over the next two years, down 0.2% points from April and down 0.5% points from the high of 5.8% reached in March. However, since the Federal Election won by the ALP Inflation Expectations have increased in the last two weeks of May. Inflation Expectations in May are 1.6% points higher than a year ago and clearly above the long-term average of 4.7%. The usual gap between Inflation Expectations in Capital Cities (5.2%) and Country Areas (5.3%) had all but disappeared by May. Since January 2020 Inflation Expectations have been consistently higher in Country Areas (4.3%) than in Capital Cities (4.0%). The smaller than usual gap is illustrated by differing situations around Australia. In Victoria and SA Inflation Expectations are higher in Country Areas than in the Capital Cities. However, Inflation Expectations are higher in the Capital Cities than Country Areas in NSW, Queensland and WA. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations were again highest in the highly regional States of Tasmania (6.0%) and Queensland (5.5%). The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of 4,700 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,021 Australians aged 14+ in May 2022.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Inflation Expectations up 0.2% points to 5.1% in February; highest for nearly eight years since June 2014

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Mar-22

In February 2022, Australians expected inflation of 5.1% annually over the next two years, up 0.2% points from January. The level of Inflation Expectations in February is the highest since June 2014 (5.3%). Inflation Expectations are now 0.4% points above the long-term average of 4.7%, and 1.4% points higher than a year ago (3.7%). A look at Inflation Expectations by home ownership status in February 2022 shows that renters have clearly the highest Inflation Expectations at 5.9%, up 2.3% points since the low point of August 2020. People who are currently paying off their homes have the lowest Inflation Expectations at only 4.5% (up 1.5% points since August 2020), while those who own their home now have Inflation Expectations of 4.8% (up 1.7% points). During this same time period the Inflation Expectations of all Australians have increased by 1.9% points to 5.1%. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations were highest in Queensland at 5.5%; Inflation Expectations were also higher than the national average at 5.4% in both Western Australia and South Australia.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED