INFLATION (FINANCE) – AUSTRALIA

RBA set to cut, Macquarie predicts

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 3-May-19

Inflation remains well below the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent, and Ric Deverell of Macquarie Group notes that it is continuing to trend lower. He says the inflation outlook is the key factor that will prompt the Reserve Bank to reduce official interest rates by 25 basis points on 7 May. Deverell adds that a rate cut will have more impact while the unemployment rate is low rather than if the central bank waits until it rises.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Politicians silent on inflation target change

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 30-Apr-19

The need for the Reserve Bank’s inflation target continues to attract scrutiny, given that inflation remains well below its target range of 2-3 per cent. Warren Hogan and David Bassanesse are among the economists who believe that the central bank should revise its inflation target, although Westpac’s Bill Evans argues that doing so would have an impact on inflation expectations. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and shadow treasurer Chris Bowen have declined to comment on the prospect of government intervention regarding the inflation target after the federal election.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, SYDNEY, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Inflation Expectations stuck at lowest in over two years

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Apr-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for March 2019. This is unchanged on February but down 0.3% on March 2018, and the index remains at its lowest since late 2016 for a second straight month. Inflation Expectations remained significantly below the nine-year average of 4.9% in March. Analysis by voting intentions shows that Inflation Expectations for supporters of the major parties diverged further in March, with the index decreasing by 0.2% for L-NP supporters to only 3.4%. In contrast the Inflation Expectations of ALP supporters increased by 0.2% to 4.1%. Greens supporters now have the lowest Inflation Expectations of any group after another fall, down 0.5% to 3.3%. March Inflation Expectations are based on personally interviewing a nationwide sample of 4,069 Australians aged 14+ face-to -face in their own homes.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Reserve Bank ready to cut rates

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 26 : 17-Apr-19

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly board meeting indicate that the central bank still expects gradual progress in lifting the inflation rate to its target range and reducing the unemployment rate. However, the minutes show that the RBA would be prepared to reduce the cash rate if inflation remains low and unemployment increases. The Australian dollar fell to a two-week low of $US0.714 in local trading in response to the release of the RBA’s minutes.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Economists see rates on hold this year

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Original article by Sarah Turner, Vesna Poljak, William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 & 21 : 1-Apr-19

The latest quarterly survey of economists shows that the general consensus is that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave official interest rates unchanged at 1.5 per cent for the remainder of 2019. The previous quarterly survey had shown that respondents expected rates to rise to 1.75 by the end of 2019. Meanwhile, the median forecast for the unemployment rate is 5 per cent by mid-2019, compared with a median forecast of 5.20 per cent in the previous survey. Expectations for underlying inflation in mid-2019 have also been pegged back, from 2.10 per cent in the January survey to 1.80 per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, LAMINAR CAPITAL PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Inflation Expectations lowest in over two years

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Mar-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for February 2019. This is down 0.2% on January, and down 0.4% on February 2018. Inflation Expectations have now broken below the range they have tracked in for over two years and are now at their lowest since November 2016. Inflation Expectations have now dropped significantly below the nine-year average of 4.9%. Analysis by voting intentions shows that Inflation Expectations for supporters of the major parties were unchanged in February, with L-NP supporters having Inflation Expectations of only 3.6% and Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters of 3.9%. February Inflation Expectations are based on personally interviewing a nationwide sample of 4,234 Australians aged 14+ face-to-face in their own homes.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Inflation Expectations unchanged at 4.2% in January

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Feb-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.2% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for January 2019. This is unchanged on December and down 0.3% on January 2018. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range of between 4.2-4.5% since November 2016. Inflation Expectations remain significantly below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysis of Inflation Expectations by voting intentions shows that L-NP supporters again had the lowest Inflation Expectations of supporters of any party in January, unchanged at only 3.6%. L-NP supporters have had the lowest Inflation Expectations of any supporters since April 2018. Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters fell 0.1% to a record low of 3.9%. January Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,111 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Next rates move still up, RBA insists

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Original article by David Rogers, James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 6-Feb-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia has downgraded its forecast for economic growth in 2019 from 3.25 per cent to around three per cent, after leaving the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 per cent. The central bank has also advised that it now expects the unemployment rate to fall to around 4.75 per cent over the next several years, while it forecasts an underlying inflation rate of two per cent in 2019. Analysts expect official interest rates to remain on hold for some time.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Inflation Expectations down 0.1% to 4.2% in December

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jan-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.2% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for December 2018. This is down 0.1% on a month ago and down 0.3% on December 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.2-4.5% for over two years. Inflation Expectations have dropped further below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Inflation Expectations fell in December for supporters of all political parties. L-NP supporters again had the lowest Inflation Expectations of supporters of any party, now at only 3.6%, down 0.1% in December. L-NP supporters have now had the lowest Inflation Expectations of any supporters since April 2018. Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters were down 0.2% to 4.0% in December and are now at their lowest since November 2016. December Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,104 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Inflation Expectations down 0.2% to 4.3% in November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Dec-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for November 2018. This is down 0.2% on a month ago, and down 0.2% from November 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.3-4.5% for nearly 18 straight months, since mid-2017. Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Inflation Expectations for Liberal-National Party supporters were unchanged at 3.7% in November and remain clearly lower than for supporters of all other parties. Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters were unchanged at 4.2% in November and remain at their lowest since mid-2017. November Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,408 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY