INFLATION (FINANCE) – AUSTRALIA

Ticehurst supports lowering RBA inflation target

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 17-Aug-18

Several leading economists have urged the Reserve Bank of Australia to scale back its inflation target. Andrew Ticehurst of Nomura Australia argues that the RBA’s midpoint of the 2-3 per cent target range is higher than that of its counterparts in the US, New Zealand and the UK, while he notes that some Asian central banks have reduced their inflation target without any adverse impact. Ticehurst says the RBA should "fine-tune" the inflation target by reducing it to around two per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, SYDNEY, BANK OF KOREA, BANK INDONESIA

RBA’s Lowe has his share of doubters

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 10-Aug-18

The Reserve Bank of Australia has not increased the official cash rate since November 2010, but governor Philip Lowe indicated on 8 August that it may not be long before it has to lift rates. An increase in interest rates would mean that the RBA felt that its inflation target of 2.5 per cent might be not be far off being reached, but some economists are not so certain about this, given the experience of economies in other parts of the world.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Inflation target here to stay, says Lowe

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 9-Aug-18

The Reserve Bank of Australia remains committed to its long-term goal of returning the inflation rate to 2.5 per cent. Central bank governor Philip Lowe says the inflation target will not be reviewed. Lowe has also indicated that achieving the inflation target is not a prerequisite for increasing official interest rates. He added that the statement of monetary policy to be released on 10 August will show that the RBA does not expect the unemployment rate to fall to five per cent before the end of 2020.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, THE ANIKA FOUNDATION

Inflation keeps RBA’s hands tied

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 26-Jul-18

Alex Joiner of IFM Investors says the latest inflation data is "underwhelming". Official figures show that consumer price inflation rose by a below-forecast 0.4 per cent in the June quarter and by 2.1 per cent in the year to June. The underlying inflation rate fell below the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent. Justin Smirk of Westpac notes that inflation data has now been below consensus forecasts for a record seventh successive quarter.

CORPORATES
IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Petrol prices to drive inflation higher

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 25-Jul-18

The median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg is for consumer price inflation of 0.5 per cent in the June quarter, compared with 0.4 per cent in the March quarter. Australia’s consumer price inflation is forecast to have risen to 2.2 per cent in the year to June, up from 1.9 per cent previously. A sharp rise in the price of petrol in the June quarter is tipped to have been a major contributor to the rise in the inflation rate. Economists do not expect the latest inflation data to have a material impact on the outlook for official interest rates.

CORPORATES
BLOOMBERG LP, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, SOCIETE GENERALE AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Australia’s unemployed have the highest Inflation Expectations at 5.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Jul-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for June 2018. This is up 0.2% from a month ago, and up 0.3% on June 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.3%-4.5% for 12 straight months since July 2017. Following this month’s fall, Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysis by employment status shows that Inflation Expectations are up amongst all categories over the past year. The biggest increase is for unemployed Australians, who now have Inflation Expectations of 5.5% (up a significant 0.7% from a year ago), while the smallest increase is for Australians employed full-time (up only 0.2% to 4% and the lowest of any employment category). June Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,300 Australians aged 14+.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Young Women have Australia’s highest Inflation Expectations

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jun-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for May 2018. This is down 0.2% from a month ago, but unchanged on May 2017. Following this month’s fall Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysing Inflation Expectations by gender and age shows that women have higher Inflation Expectations than similarly aged men. Women aged 14-34 continue to have Australia’s highest Inflation Expectations, while middle-aged men aged 50-64 have the lowest Inflation Expectations of any gender and age. May Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,112 Australians.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Inflation Expectations up in April led by Melbourne, Adelaide & Perth

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-May-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for April 2018. This is up 0.2% from a month ago, and up 0.1% on April 2017. Despite the increase in April, Inflation Expectations are still well below the eight-year average of 5.0% Analysis of Inflation Expectations by political affiliation shows that supporters of both major parties drove the index higher in April. Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters increased 0.3% to 4.5% and are now in line with the national average, while Inflation Expectations for L-NP supporters increased 0.4% to 4.1%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Inflation Expectations down again in March before Federal Budget in early May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Apr-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for March 2018. This is down 0.1% from a month ago, the second straight monthly fall, and also down 0.1% from March 2017. Inflation Expectations have now fallen for two consecutive months for the first time since June 2017 and are lower year over year for the first time since December 2016. Following these consecutive decreases Inflation Expectations are now well below the seven-year average of 5.0%. Analysing Inflation Expectations by political affiliation shows that ALP supporters are driving the fall, with the Inflation Expectations of L-NP supporters unchanged on a year ago and Greens supporters now with slightly higher Inflation Expectations.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Fuel and education could flatter CPI result

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 24-Apr-18

Analysts are expecting Australia’s consumer price index for the March quarter to be up 0.5 per cent when official figures are released on 1 May. This figure would mean an annual CPI increase of 1.9 per cent. Andrew Ticehurst of Nomura, who has proven to be the most accurate forecaster taking part in Bloomberg’s survey, is tipping a headline figure of 0.6 per cent. Ticehurst thinks increases in education, fuel, electricity and tobacco costs will have the most impact on the CPI result.

CORPORATES
NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BLOOMBERG LP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA