INFLATION (FINANCE) – AUSTRALIA

Australian Inflation Expectations unchanged at 4.5% to start 2018

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Mar-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for January 2018. This is unchanged for a third straight month and also unchanged from January 2017. Inflation Expectations have levelled off in recent months after rising throughout the last year; 2017 was the first year since the series began in 2010 that Inflation Expectations were higher year-over-year in every month. Despite the increases throughout 2017, Inflation Expectations remain well below the seven-year average of 5.0%. Analysis by State shows that Inflation Expectations remain the highest in Queensland at 4.8%, with the southern States of Victoria and Tasmania both on 4.7%, and South Australia on 4.6% also above the national average. Analysis by Federal voting intention shows that ALP supporters (4.5%) have Inflation Expectations equal to the national average, above those of L-NP supporters (4.1%).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Low inflation, low unemployment, and Lowe restraint

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 9-Feb-18

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has indicated that an interest rate rise is now more likely than a rate cut. However, he says the central bank is unlikely to tighten monetary policy until inflation rises around the mid-point of its target range of 2-3 per cent and there is a further reduction in the unemployment rate. He has stressed that the Reserve Bank does not need to adjust monetary policy in line with other central banks. Lowe also says the Reserve Bank does not expect its inflation forecasts to be unduly affected by the recent sharemarket volatility.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Inflation Expectations unchanged at 4.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jan-18

Australians expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for December 2017. This is unchanged for a second straight month, although it is up 0.3% from December 2016. The increase in Inflation Expectations over the last year has been driven by significant increases in the two resource intensive states of Queensland and Western Australia as the mining industry has recovered strongly. However, Inflation Expectations remain well below the seven-year average of 5.0%. Analyses of Inflation expectations by Federal voting intention shows that ALP supporters (4.6%) have inflation expectations just above the national average and clearly higher than L-NP supporters (4.0%) although both increased in December. In contrast, the Inflation Expectations of Greens supporters fell to 4.2%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Australian Inflation Expectations up in October led by renters

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Dec-17

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for October 2017. This is up 0.1% in a month, and up 0.4% from October 2016. However, it remains well below the seven-year average of 5.0%. Inflation Expectations among renters was 4.9% in October, compared with just 3.9% for home owners and 4.2% for mortgagors. Analysis by State shows that Inflation Expectations are highest in South Australia at 4.9%, followed by Victoria and Queensland (4.6%). Analysing Inflation Expectations by Federal voting intention shows that ALP supporters (4.6%) have the highest inflation expectations, ahead of L-NP supporters (4%) and Greens supporters (4.4%)

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

RBA held up by flagging inflation

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 26-Oct-17

Official data shows that growth in Australia’s headline consumer prices was below expectations at just 0.6 per cent in the September quarter, for an annual inflation rate of 1.8 per cent. Growth in the core inflation rate slowed to 0.3-0.4 per cent, compared with 0.5 per cent in the June quarter. The data has dampened expectations that the Reserve Bank will increase the cash rate in the near-term, with financial markets now pricing in a 36 per cent chance of a rate rise by May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Jobs market ‘a thing of beauty’ set to boost pay

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 23-Oct-17

More than 300,000 jobs have been created in Australia during the last year, but Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics forecasts that this will slow to less than 200,000 in the next 12 months. He also expects wages to begin increasing, while inflation will continue to rise at a slow pace over the next several years. Richardson adds that official interest rates are likely to remain low for some time, while a range of factors suggest that business investment will increase.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED

Inflation Expectations fall to 4.4% in September

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Oct-17

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.4% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for September 2017. This is down 0.1% in a month, although it is up 0.3% from September 2016. However, it remains well below the seven-year average of 5.0%. Analysis by State shows that Inflation Expectations are highest in Tasmania at 5.4%, followed by Victoria (4.7%) and New South Wales and Queensland (4.3%). Analysing Inflation Expectations by Federal voting intention shows that L-NP supporters (3.9%) and Greens supporters (4.1%) have the lowest Inflation Expectations, while ALP supporters (4.4%) are in line with the national average.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Reserve in no hurry to lift rates

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 18-Oct-17

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting for October suggest that the cash rate will remain at 1.5 per cent for some time. The central bank stresses that while the global trend toward monetary policy tightening is a "welcome development", it has no implications for Australian interest rates, which stayed much higher than in many nations in the wake of the global financial crisis. Meanwhile, the RBA anticipates that inflation will gradually move towards its target range.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF CANADA, BANK OF ENGLAND, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

$9bn power hit for big firms

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Original article by Eli Greenblat, Damon Kitney
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-Sep-17

National Australia Bank’s chief economist Alan Oster has forecast that higher energy costs will add 0.6 per cent to the headline inflation rate for the September quarter. Companies that are major energy users estimate that their electricity and gas costs will rise by $A9bn, which in turn will affect profit margins, jobs and investment. Meanwhile, AGL Energy has advised that it has made no commitment to sell its Liddell power station or keep it operating beyond the planned closure date of 2022. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has claimed that AGL CEO Andy Vesey had indicated that the company would be open to selling the power station.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, DELTA ENERGY PTY LTD, GLENCORE PLC, AUSTRALIAN PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND EXPLORATION ASSOCIATION LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, TOMAGO ALUMINIUM COMPANY PTY LTD, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX PGH, COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX CGC, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL

Australian Inflation Expectations up to 4.5% in August. Generations Y & Z consistently have highest Inflation Expectations

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Sep-17

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for August 2017. This is up 0.2% in a month and up 0.6% from August 2016. However, it is well below the seven-year average of 5.1%. Analysis by State shows that Inflation Expectations are highest in Tasmania at 4.9%, closely followed by New South Wales (4.8%) and Queensland (4.6%). Inflation Expectations in Australia’s other States were below the national average. Analysing Inflation Expectations by generations reveals a clear split in how different generations view Inflation. The two youngest generations consistently have higher Inflation Expectations than older generations.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED