INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA

Expect more interest rate rises in 2023: RBA

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-Dec-22

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the latest increase in official interest rates is "the Christmas present no Australian household wanted". Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has signalled that further interest rate increases are likely in 2023, after the RBA lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.1 per cent on Tuesday. Lowe said the size and timing of future rate rises will continue to be determined by incoming economic data and the RBA board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market. He also noted that the headline inflation rate is still well above the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent. Chalmers says the eight increases in the cash rate since May are likely to weigh on economic growth.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY,{SPAC}RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Governor’s mea culpa for flawed interest rates guidance

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 5 : 29-Nov-22

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has used an appearance before a Senate estimates hearing to apologise for the RBA’s flawed guidance during late 2020 and most of 2021 that interest rates would not go up until 2024. However, he stated that its advice at the time needed to be taken into context, noting it was the height of the pandemic, and the dire situation that the country was in suggested to the RBA that inflation was unlikely to pick up quickly. Lowe also said he was "very glad" that workers were getting higher pay, while he did not think that labour costs would increase sufficiently enough to cause a 1970s style wage-price spiral.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Inflation tipped to rise to highest level in 32 years

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Original article by Emma Rapaport
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 29-Nov-22

The latest monthly inflation data will be released on Wednesday. Catherine Birch from the ANZ Bank expects the data to show that the headline inflation rate rose from 7.3 per cent in September to 7.8 per cent in October. Birch also forecasts that the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure of trimmed mean inflation will rise from 5.4 per cent to 5.9 per cent. The ANZ expects the quarterly headline inflation rate to peak at eight per cent in the final three months of 2022 and remain above the central bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent until the end of 2024. It also anticipates that the Reserve Bank will begin to ease monetary policy in November 2024.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

NZ Reserve Bank nails our RBA’s failure

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Original article by Terry McCrann
Herald Sun – Page: 49 : 24-Nov-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has stated that wage outcomes must be consistent with the return of inflation to the central bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent. Increasing wages in line with the inflation rate would inevitably result in large-scale job losses and further boost inflation. Allowing inflation to remain well above the target range for too long would also heighten the risk of a wage-price spiral. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recognises these risks; its cash rate was increased by 75 basis points on Wednesday, and it seriously considered a one per cent increase. In contrast, the RBA increased the cash rate by just 25 basis points in November, despite the inflation rate in both countries being nearly identical. NZ’s cash rate is now 4.25 per cent, but Australia’s cash rate will still be just 3.1 per cent if – as expected – the RBA announces a 25 basis point increase in December.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND

Economists tip supersized Cup day rate rise

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 : 28-Oct-22

Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to increase the cash rate by 50 basis points in November, in response to the latest inflation data. Westpac now anticipates that official interest rates will peak at 3.85 per cent, a view shared by the Commonwealth Bank. National Australia Bank and ANZ in turn expect interest rates to peak at 3.6 per cent and 3.1 per cent respectively. Meanwhile, financial markets have priced in a 25 basis point increase in November.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

No doubt interest rates will continue to climb: RBA

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 19-Oct-22

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s deputy governor Michele Bullock says inflation is still too high and further rises in the cash rate will be necessary in order to return it to the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent. Bullock has told the Australian Finance Industry Association’s annual conference that the RBA believes that it can reduce the inflation rate while avoiding a recession and preserving most of the jobs that have been created in recent times. Meanwhile, the minutes from the RBA’s latest meeting show that the board was of the view that slowing the pace of rate rises in October will give it time to assess incoming economic data.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Chalmers warns of rates-driven inflation

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Original article by Ronald Mizen, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 12-Oct-22

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the world is facing a "substantial" global economic downturn, although he adds that the federal government’s first Budget on 25 October will not forecast a recession in Australia. Chalmers has also warned that the widening gap between interest rates in Australia and the US could boost inflation by putting downward pressure on the Australian dollar and making imports more expensive. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund now expects the Australian economy to grow by just 1.9 per cent in 2023; it had previously forecast growth of 2.2 per cent. The IMF has also downgraded its global growth forecast.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

RBA slows its rate pace from breakneck to merely galloping

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-Oct-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has indicated that further interest rises are likely as the central bank seeks to bring inflation under control. The RBA defied the expectations of most economists and investors by increasing the cash rate by just 25 basis points on Tuesday, lifting it to 2.6 per cent. The RBA has become the first major central bank to scale back the size of interest rate increases in the current monetary policy tightening cycle, having increased the cash rate by 50 basis points at each of its previous four monthly board meetings. Australia’s four major banks have increased their variable mortgage interest rates by 25 basis points in line with the cash rate.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Interest rate rises: One in four Aussie mortgage holders could face financial stress

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Original article by Sarah Sharples
News.com.au – Page: Online : 4-Oct-22

Roy Morgan research reveals that close to one in four mortgage holders would be at risk of mortgage stress if the Reserve Bank lifts interest rates by 0.5% in both October and November. It would be the equivalent of 1.1 million people, and would represent the highest number of mortgage holders classed as being at risk since July 2013; Roy Morgan defines mortgage stress as having repayments greater than between 25% and 45% of household income. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the variable that has the greatest impact on whether a borrower falls into the ‘at risk’ category is household income – which is directly related to employment. She says that if employment figures remain strong, the number of mortgage holders at risk should not reach the levels seen during the global financial crisis between 2007 and 2009, when the percentage of mortgage holders at risk peaked at 35.6% in May 2008.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

October rate raise could be final straw for lower income spenders

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Original article by Emma Koehn
Brisbane Times – Page: Online : 4-Oct-22

Low-income households will come under further pressure if the Reserve Bank of Australia increases the cash rate by another 50 basis points on Tuesday. The latest quarterly consumer survey from UBS shows that low income earners have an "outright negative" financial outlook, although wealthy Australians are expected to keep spending. Australian Retailers Association CEO Paul Zahra notes that the full impact of the recent interest rate increases have yet to flow through the economy, adding that retail sales could soften in coming months.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION