INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA

Economists tip supersized Cup day rate rise

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 : 28-Oct-22

Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to increase the cash rate by 50 basis points in November, in response to the latest inflation data. Westpac now anticipates that official interest rates will peak at 3.85 per cent, a view shared by the Commonwealth Bank. National Australia Bank and ANZ in turn expect interest rates to peak at 3.6 per cent and 3.1 per cent respectively. Meanwhile, financial markets have priced in a 25 basis point increase in November.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

No doubt interest rates will continue to climb: RBA

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 19-Oct-22

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s deputy governor Michele Bullock says inflation is still too high and further rises in the cash rate will be necessary in order to return it to the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent. Bullock has told the Australian Finance Industry Association’s annual conference that the RBA believes that it can reduce the inflation rate while avoiding a recession and preserving most of the jobs that have been created in recent times. Meanwhile, the minutes from the RBA’s latest meeting show that the board was of the view that slowing the pace of rate rises in October will give it time to assess incoming economic data.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Chalmers warns of rates-driven inflation

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Original article by Ronald Mizen, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 12-Oct-22

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the world is facing a "substantial" global economic downturn, although he adds that the federal government’s first Budget on 25 October will not forecast a recession in Australia. Chalmers has also warned that the widening gap between interest rates in Australia and the US could boost inflation by putting downward pressure on the Australian dollar and making imports more expensive. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund now expects the Australian economy to grow by just 1.9 per cent in 2023; it had previously forecast growth of 2.2 per cent. The IMF has also downgraded its global growth forecast.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

RBA slows its rate pace from breakneck to merely galloping

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-Oct-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has indicated that further interest rises are likely as the central bank seeks to bring inflation under control. The RBA defied the expectations of most economists and investors by increasing the cash rate by just 25 basis points on Tuesday, lifting it to 2.6 per cent. The RBA has become the first major central bank to scale back the size of interest rate increases in the current monetary policy tightening cycle, having increased the cash rate by 50 basis points at each of its previous four monthly board meetings. Australia’s four major banks have increased their variable mortgage interest rates by 25 basis points in line with the cash rate.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Interest rate rises: One in four Aussie mortgage holders could face financial stress

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Original article by Sarah Sharples
News.com.au – Page: Online : 4-Oct-22

Roy Morgan research reveals that close to one in four mortgage holders would be at risk of mortgage stress if the Reserve Bank lifts interest rates by 0.5% in both October and November. It would be the equivalent of 1.1 million people, and would represent the highest number of mortgage holders classed as being at risk since July 2013; Roy Morgan defines mortgage stress as having repayments greater than between 25% and 45% of household income. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the variable that has the greatest impact on whether a borrower falls into the ‘at risk’ category is household income – which is directly related to employment. She says that if employment figures remain strong, the number of mortgage holders at risk should not reach the levels seen during the global financial crisis between 2007 and 2009, when the percentage of mortgage holders at risk peaked at 35.6% in May 2008.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

October rate raise could be final straw for lower income spenders

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Original article by Emma Koehn
Brisbane Times – Page: Online : 4-Oct-22

Low-income households will come under further pressure if the Reserve Bank of Australia increases the cash rate by another 50 basis points on Tuesday. The latest quarterly consumer survey from UBS shows that low income earners have an "outright negative" financial outlook, although wealthy Australians are expected to keep spending. Australian Retailers Association CEO Paul Zahra notes that the full impact of the recent interest rate increases have yet to flow through the economy, adding that retail sales could soften in coming months.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION

Interest rates: Ghost of ’89 may come to haunt us

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 4-Oct-22

National Australia Bank’s chief economist Alan Oster expects the cash rate to rise by 50 basis points on Tuesday, followed by a 25 basis point increase in November. However, he warns that the nation could pay a heavy price for a "policy mistake" by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board, noting that the central bank’s aggressive tightening of monetary policy in 1989 ultimately led to a recession and a sharp rise in the unemployment rate. Oster is not predicting a recession in Australia at this stage, but he says the worsening global economic outlook will inevitably have an impact in Australia.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Myer defies rates gloom, tips big Christmas

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Original article by Carrie LaFrenz
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 16-Sep-22

Department store chain Myer released its latest full-year results on 15 September, announcing an underlying net profit of $60.2 million, up 16.5 per cent. Bottom-line profit rose 5.7 per cent to $49 million, while full-year sales were up 12.5 per cent to $2.99 billion; a final dividend of $0.025 per share was declared, to be paid on 7 November. Myer CEO John King said the company was expecting strong trade over the Christmas period, although he expressed fears about the level of consumer confidence, particularly if the Reserve Bank lifts interest rates again at its October meeting.

CORPORATES
MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

One in five mortgagors will struggle to pay 3pc rate rise

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 & 30 : 10-Aug-22

Comparison site Finder estimates that the average mortgage interest rate would rise to 5.85 per cent if the cash rate reaches 2.5 per cent. Finder’s Richard Whitten says recent home buyers in particular will struggle to make mortgage repayments if the cash rate continues to rise. A survey by Finder has found that one in five people with a mortgage would find it hard to make repayments if their interest rate increased by three per cent, while many would consider selling their home. SQM Research MD Louise Christopher cautions that selling in a downturn would be an added challenge for distressed home owners.

CORPORATES
FINDER.COM.AU, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

Higher interest rates tipped to bite

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Aug-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has reiterated that higher interest rates are necessary to return inflation to the target range of 2-3 per cent and to create a sustainable balance of demand and supply. Financial markets are now pricing in a cash rate of three per cent by December, following the RBA’s third consecutive increase of 50 basis points on Tuesday. The cash rate is now at a six-year high of 1.85 per cent, and many economists expect a rate rise of either 25 or 50 basis points in September. Meanwhile, the RBA has downgraded its economic growth forecast for both 2023 and 2024 to just 1.75 per cent, while it expects the official unemployment rate to reach four per cent by the end of 2024.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA