INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA

Lowe prompts double jump in rate forecasts

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 16-Jun-22

Financial markets have now fully priced in a 50 basis point increase in the cash rate at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly board meeting in July. Financial markets also expect official interests to rise to four per cent by early 2023, compared with just 0.85 per cent at present. Investment bank Goldman Sachs expects the cash rate to rise by 50 basis points in July and the following two months; it had anticipated 25 basis point rate rises in August and September prior to recent comments by RBA governor Philip Lowe regarding the outlook for inflation and interest rates.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA GROUP HOLDINGS PTY LTD

RBA opens door to 2022 rate rise

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Feb-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has signalled that official interest rates could potentially rise before the end of 2022 if the economy continues to perform well. However, he has downplayed suggestions that the cash rate may be increased four times in 2022, arguing that Australia’s inflation rate is still well below that of countries such as the US and the UK. Lowe also said that the unemployment rate could soon fall below four per cent. The Commonwealth Bank still expects the cash rate to be increased in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Lowe keeps nation guessing on rates

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 2-Feb-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has downplayed speculation that official interest rates will rise in 2022. Lowe stated that although inflation has increased, it is not yet sustainably within the central bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent. This has been identified as a prerequisite for increasing the cash rate, which was left at a record low of 0.1 per cent on Tuesday. The RBA will also end its quantitative easing program. Meanwhile, Lowe has forecast that core inflation will peak at 3.25 per cent, compared with 2.6 per cent at present, while he expects the unemployment rate to fall below four per cent later in 2022.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Economists cast doubt on central bank’s view

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Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 20-Oct-21

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest monthly board meeting show that it still expects the cash rate to remain on hold until 2024, when inflation is forecast to be sustainably within its target range of 2-3 per cent. However, the consensus of economists is that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy in mid-2023. Judo Bank’s chief economist Warren Hogan says the first rate rise could potentially be in November 2022, while Su-Lin Ong of RBC Capital Markets expects a rate rise in the December 2023 quarter.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JUDO BANK PTY LTD, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

RBA: Economy to bounce back

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 8-Sep-21

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has warned that GDP is likely to decline "materially" in the September quarter due to COVID-19 lockdowns. However, he believes that the economy will rebound as vaccination rates increase and restrictions are eased, and growth in the December quarter will allow Australia to avoid a technical recession. The central bank left official interest rates on hold at 0.1 per cent at its September board meeting; it has also advised that its bond-buying program will be maintained at the current level until at least February 2022.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Reserve Bank sticks to the plan despite Covid resurgence

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 15 & 20 : 4-Aug-21

The Reserve Bank of Australia has confirmed that it still intends to reduce its weekly bond-buying program from $5bn to $4bn in early September, following its latest monthly board meeting. Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans says the decision was surprising, given that the RBA had consistently reiterated that its quantitative easing program would be guided by factors such as the economic outlook and the COVID-19 pandemic. The central bank has conceded that the economy is likely to contract in the September quarter, due to the impact of lockdowns. The RBA has also reiterated its view that the cash rate will not rise until inflation is ‘sustainably’ within its target range of 2-3 per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Reserve Bank cools expectations of rise in interest rates

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 13 & 20 : 9-Jul-21

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has downplayed speculation that it could begin tightening monetary policy in 2022. Lowe has told the Economics Society of Queensland that inflation must be "sustainably" within the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent before it will consider a rise in the official interest rate; he added that wage growth of at least three per cent is likely to be needed for inflation to reach the central bank’s target range, while wages growth is "materially" less than three per cent at present. George Tharenou of UBS expects the RBA to abandon its bond yield target in the second half of 2022, which would enable it to increase the cash rate in 2023.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Investors bring forward rate rise expectations

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Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 7-Jul-21

Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to begin tightening monetary policy in early 2023, and he has flagged a cash rate of 0.75 per cent by the end of that year. RBA governor Philip Lowe has previously reiterated that interest rates are likely to remain at 0.1 per cent until at least 2024, but he indicated in a statement on 6 July that this is now merely its "central scenario" and the conditions that could justify a rate rise could be met earlier than this. Interest rate futures pricing also suggests that the cash rate could begin rising earlier than expected.

CORPORATES
CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA lauds $50bn budget boost

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 21-Apr-21

The federal government had forecast a $198bn Budget deficit for 2020-21 in its mid-year economic and financial outlook. The Department of Finance has advised that the Budget bottom line improved by $23bn during the first eight months of the financial year; some economists now expect the full-year deficit to be about $50bn lower than had been forecast in December. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia says the strong economic rebound has seen national GDP growth return to its pre-pandemic level. The RBA reiterated in the minutes of its monthly board meeting that the cash rate is likely to remain on hold until at least 2024.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

CBA faces penalty over rates slug

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis, David Ross
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 2-Dec-20

The Australian Securities & Investments Commission has launched legal action against the Commonwealth Bank of Australia over allegations that it breached financial services laws. ASIC contends that customers with business overdraft accounts were charged incorrect interest rates between December 2014 and March 2018. CBA has advised that 2,269 customers who were overcharged during this period have been reimbursed $3.74m in total. ASIC is seeking pecuniary penalties and other orders.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA