INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA

RBA dampens rate cut hopes

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 27-Jul-17

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has signalled that the central bank will maintain its inflation target of 2-3 per cent. Meanwhile, new data shows that CPI growth in the June quarter was below expectations at 1.9 per cent, although growth in core inflation was in line with forecasts at 1.8 per cent. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects the RBA to leave the cash rate at 1.5 per cent until at least the end of 2018.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, THE ANIKA FOUNDATION

As good as it gets for the Australian dollar?

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Original article by Jens Meyer
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 25-Jul-17

A speech by Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe on 26 July is likely to be closely scrutinised after recent commentary on a neutral interest rate target prompted the Australian dollar to rally. The currency peaked at a two-year high in response, although it retreated after deputy governor Guy Debelle downplayed the discussions about neutral rates. Paul Dales of Capital Economics expects the dollar to come under downward pressure, citing factors such as the outlook for interest rates and the iron ore price.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, AXITRADER PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, OANDA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Job surge adds to dollar’s strength

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 30 : 21-Jul-17

The Australian dollar peaked at a two-year high of $US0.7989 in local trading on 20 July, in response to data showing that 62,000 full-time jobs were created in June. The economy added a net 14,000 jobs, due to a sharp fall in part-time positions, and the unemployment rate was steady at 5.6 per cent. Capital Economics’ Katie Hickie says the Reserve Bank is likely to leave official interest rates on hold until at least the end of 2018, arguing that growth in wages will be limited by excess capacity in the labour market.

CORPORATES
CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

RBA sending a warning shot on rates: Edwards

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 20-Jul-17

Economist John Edwards recently suggested that Australia’s economic outlook could potentially prompt the Reserve Bank to lift the cash rate from 1.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent by the end of 2019. The minutes of the central bank’s latest board meeting indicate that it now has a "neutral" nominal cash rate target of 3.5 per cent. Edwards says it is quite possible that official interest rates could rise to this level, and he anticipates a rate rise in March 2018. Paul Bloxham of HSBC forecasts a rate increase in the March 2018 quarter.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, LOWY INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY

RBA signals cash rate rise to 3.5pc

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 19-Jul-17

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly board meeting for July show that it now has a neutral cash rate target of 3.5 per cent, compared with a cash rate of 1.5 per cent at present. Financial markets increased the chances of an interest rate rise in May 2018 to 91 per cent in response to the release of the minutes, which also made reference to economic indicators such as a downturn in unemployment and growth in infrastructure investment.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Headaches for Reserve Bank as Aussie battler becomes dollar dazzler

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 18-Jul-17

The Australian dollar has gained three per cent against its US counterpart in the last week, peaking at a two-year high of $US0.7836 in intra-day trading on 17 July. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar trade-weighted index has risen to 66.4 points. Ray Attrill of National Australia Bank says the currency’s recent strength means the Reserve Bank will not increase the cash rate as quickly as financial markets had expected.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, GROUP OF TEN (G-10), UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, BLOOMBERG LP

Record debt levels to keep RBA on hold

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Original article by Myriam Robin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 12-Jul-17

PIMCO Australia Robert Mead notes that a rise in the nation’s household debt-to-income ratio to a record high has coincided with a downturn in household debt in other developed countries. He warns that it will be hard for the Reserve Bank to increase the cash rate in the near-term, given the growth in household debt and residential property prices. With little prospect of a local rate rise for some time, US interest rates could potentially soon return to parity with Australian rates for the first time in 15 years.

CORPORATES
PIMCO AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, PACIFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

NAB acts to reduce riskiest lending

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 22 : 7-Jul-17

National Australia Bank will begin assessing the ability of interest-only mortgage borrowers to repay their loan when deciding whether to approve such applications. NAB already takes into account a customer’s loan-to-income ratio when assessing all loan applications, but it will reject applications from people with high loan-to-income ratios from 8 July. The major banks have increased the interest rates on interest-only loans in recent months.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, ING DIRECT

‘Savers the big losers’ from rate rises

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Original article by Myriam Robin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 6-Jul-17

Data from Canstar shows that just 15 out of 75 Australian lenders have increased their term deposit interest rates since the last official interest rate cut in August 2016. Steve Mickenbecker of Canstar says term deposit rates have fallen to an unprecedented low, and he warns that rates are unlikely to rise while inflation remains low. He adds that savers can adopt a number of strategies to obtain higher term deposit rates, but this requires a lot of effort. Meanwhile, banks are increasing their rates on interest-only and investor mortgage loans.

CORPORATES
CANSTAR PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA douses talk of rate rises

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Original article by David Rogers, Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 17 & 25 : 5-Jul-17

Financial markets have priced in a nine per cent chance of a rise in Australia’s cash rate before the end of 2017 in the wake of the Reserve Bank’s July board meeting. The chances of a rate rise in the next 12 months have fallen from 84 per cent to 76 per cent. The central bank’s monetary policy statement was largely unchanged from May, although the Reserve Bank noted that a gradual strengthening of the Australia economy is likely. It also highlighted the need for the Australian dollar to remain low as the domestic economy completes its transition from the mining investment boom.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BANK OF ENGLAND, BANK OF CANADA