LABOR MARKET – AUSTRALIA

Federal Court’s ruling on casual employees set to have impact on hundreds of thousands of businesses says Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine

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Original article by Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Jun-20

The business community and union movement must come together and reach an equitable solution about how to handle the implications of the decision in the interests of a healthy Australian jobs market. The biggest direct impact is that businesses will be deterred from hiring casual employees. Businesses mentioned ‘double-dipping’ and that ‘casual workers already get a 25% loading for sick pay and annual leave’. In addition as many as 123,000 businesses say they will be ‘forced to close’. The reluctance to hire casual employees is a troubling development in an economy which has experienced over a million job losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has flagged working with unions and businesses to re-boot the Australian economy after the pandemic, but the impetus must be driven by business and union leaders to succeed.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

794,000 businesses affected by casual employee ruling

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jun-20

A special Roy Morgan SMS survey of 881 Australian businesses shows that 34.5% are set to be affected by the Federal Court’s ruling on the entitlements of casual employees. Most worryingly, as many as 123,000 (5.5%) businesses say they will be ‘forced to close’ because of the ruling. A majority of small businesses (54.5%) with 5-19 employees and medium businesses (54.5%) with 20-199 employees say they will be affected by the ruling in some way. Over a third of large businesses (36%) with 200+ employees and just under a third of micro businesses (32%) with 1-5 employees say they will be affected by the ruling in some way. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said the Federal Court’s ruling on casual employees has the potential to have a significant impact on hundreds of thousands of Australian businesses.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA

JobSeeker’s block on work to be scrutinised

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 22-May-20

The federal government’s decision to double the JobSeeker allowance will be scrutinised as part of its forthcoming review of the JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme. There are concerns that increasing the unemployment benefit to $550 a week has prompted some casual workers to quit their jobs, as they are of the view that they are financially better off by going on the dole. Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy stresses that JobKeeper and the increased JobKeeper payment are temporary. However, he has flagged the possibility that they may be phased out gradually.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Casual benefits ruling raises JobKeeper risk

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 22-May-20

Employers may face claims for up to $8bn in back pay following the Federal Court’s ruling that casual workers who have ‘regular and predictable shifts’ are entitled to paid leave and a 25 per cent loading. Industrial Relations Minister Christian Porter has flagged government action in response to the ruling, saying one option may be to give more casual workers the right to request that their jobs become permanent. Council of Small Business Organisations CEO Peter Strong says the ruling will deter small businesses from hiring casual workers, while Australian Industry Group CEO Innes Willox warns of the potential for large-scale job losses when the JobKeeper scheme ends in September.

CORPORATES
FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, SKILLS, SMALL AND FAMILY BUSINESS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, COUNCIL OF SMALL BUSINESS ORGANISATIONS OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP

ABS April Unemployment estimate doesn’t reflect reality. ABS claims 594,000 lose their jobs but only 104,000 become unemployed (?!?)

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-May-20

Yesterday the ABS released its April employment estimates. The ABS estimates that 12,419,000 Australians were employed in April, down 594,000 on March. There were sharp falls for both full-time and part-time employed. The ABS estimate Australian unemployment increased by only 104,000 to 823,000 in April (6.2% of the workforce, up 1%). Australians will be asking, how can the ABS say 594,000 have lost their jobs in April but only 104,000 become unemployed? This is because the ABS claim 490,000 people left the workforce in April. i.e. the ABS claims these people lost their jobs and weren’t then looking for work and available to start work during the reference week. These workers are unemployed – NOT out of the workforce. So the workforce size in April should match the March estimate of 66%. The real ABS unemployment estimate for April is closer to 1.35 million (9.8%) – an increase of 4.6% points. Combined with the estimated ABS under-employment of 1.82 million (13.7%) means a combined unemployment and under-employment of 3.16 million (23.5%). This is much closer to the Roy Morgan April employment estimates showing 2.16 million Australians (15.3%) were unemployed and a total of 3.48 million (24.7%) were either unemployed or under-employed.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

‘Massive hit’: unemployment jump set to break ABS records

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 14-May-20

Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects labour market data to be released on 14 May will show that a record 750,000 jobs were lost in April. AMP Capital forecasts that the unemployment rate rose to 10 per cent in April, while less bearish economists anticipate a jobless rate of between eight and nine per cent. Justin Smirk of Westpac notes that the actual jobless rate is likely to be much higher, as the Australian Bureau of statistics does not consider somebody to be unemployment if they have been laid off but have a job to go back to. Meanwhile, data from the ABS shows that annual growth in wages was just 2.1 per cent in the March quarter.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Door not shut on extending jobless aid: PM

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 12-May-20

JP Morgan expects about one million Australians to have lost their jobs in April, lifting the unemployment rate to 8.5 per cent. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has reiterated that at present the JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme is still slated to be in place for six months. He adds that it could be extended or scaled back, depending on the pace at which the economy and the labour market recover from the pandemic. Official labour market data for April will be released on 14 May.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Roy Morgan’s unemployment measure for April shows 2.16 million Australians were unemployed (15.3% of the workforce) with an additional 1.32 million (9.4%) under-employed

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-May-20

Roy Morgan’s unemployment measure for April shows that in total a massive 3.5 million (24.7%) Australians are now either unemployed or under-employed. This is 439,000 fewer than the 3.92 million (27.4%) during the last two weeks of March (March 20-31, 2020), immediately before the Federal Government’s JobKeeper program was announced. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 15.3% for April is now almost three times higher than the current ABS estimate for March 2020 of 5.2%. The ABS figure for March was based on interviews conducted in reference to early March (pre shut-downs) and did not include data related to the situation in late March (post shut-downs).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Wider impact of virus crisis becoming clearer

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Original article by Robert Gottliebsen
The Australian – Page: 21 : 28-Apr-20

Roy Morgan has revealed that 10.5 million Australians have had their employment circumstances changed by the impact of COVID-19. This includes 3.8 million people who have had their work hours cut, while 670,000 people have been made redundant. Roy Morgan found that three-quarters of sole traders have been impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, but that 46 per cent of people who work for entities with over 1,000 employees have not had their employment affected in some manner by the crisis. Agriculture, transport and storage, and wholesale trade are among the sectors least impacted by the crisis, according to Roy Morgan.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Jobless blow will be worst since 1930s

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 20-Apr-20

A report from the Grattan Institute has forecast that jobs in the hospitality, arts and recreation, retail and education sectors will be hardest hit by the coronavirus and the measures that have been deployed to contain it. The public policy think tank estimates that 14-26 per cent of Australian workers will soon be out of work, or up to 3.4 million people. In addition, the Grattan Institute warns that the JobKeeper scheme will not prevent the unemployment rate from rising to 10-15 per cent.

CORPORATES
GRATTAN INSTITUTE