LABOR MARKET – AUSTRALIA

In March Australian unemployment dropped to 10.2% as both full-time and part-time employment grew

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Apr-25

In March 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell 230,000 to 1,604,000 (down 1.3% to 10.2% of the workforce), with significantly fewer people looking for work. The decrease in unemployment was driven by full-time employment (up 29,000 to 9,385,000) and part-time employment (up 34,000 to 4,801,000). However, the Australian workforce dropped 167,000 to 15,790,000 as many of those unemployed decided to leave the workforce. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.43 million Australians (9.1% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, down 199,000 from February. In total, 3.03 million Australians (19.3% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in March. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 10.2% is clearly more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for February, and is in line with the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

In January Australian unemployment increased to 10.1% due to a growing workforce with not all new entrants finding jobs

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Feb-25

In January 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 78,000 to 1,620,000 (up 0.4% to 10.1% of the workforce) with more people looking for both part-time and full-time work. The Australian workforce increased by 297,000 to a record high of 16,115,000 with unemployment up 78,000 to 1,620,000 and employment up 219,000 to 14,495,000. The increase in unemployment was driven by rises in people looking for part-time work (up 36,000 to 837,000), and people looking for full-time work (up 42,000 to 783,000). In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.81 million Australians (11.3% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 137,000 from December – a new record high level of under-employment. In total 3.43 million Australians (21.4% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in January – the highest combined figure since June 2020.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

In December Australian unemployment increased to 9.7% as overall employment dropped by 150,000

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Jan-25

In December 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased by 180,000 to 1,542,000 (up 1.1% to 9.7% of the workforce), with many fewer people in part-time employment following the Black Friday sales period in November. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.68 million Australians (10.6% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work (up 132,000 from November to a new record high). In total, 3.22 million Australians (20.3% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in December; this is the highest combined figure since August 2020. Meanwhile, Australian employment fell by 154,000 to 14,276,000; this decrease was driven by a fall in part-time employment (down 210,000 to 4,953,000 following the Black Friday sales period), while full-time employment increased by 56,000 to 9,323,000. The total workforce in December was 15,818,000 (up 26,000 from November, and up 866,000 from two years ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.7% is clearly more than double the ABS estimate of 3.9% for November, but it is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.3%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

In November Australian unemployment dropped to 8.6% as employment grew by over 180,000 to a new record high

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Dec-24

In November 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 88,000 to 1,362,000 (down 0.6% to 8.6% of the workforce), with many of these people finding employment. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.54 million Australians (9.8% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 68,000 from October. In total, 2.91 million Australians (18.4% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in November. Meanwhile, Australian employment increased 183,000 to 14,430,000; this increase was driven by a rise in part-time employment, up 420,000 to 5,163,000 as the pre-Christmas and Black Friday sales period kicked off, but full-time employment decreased 237,000 to 9,267,000. The total workforce in November was 15,792,000 (up 95,000 from October, and up 874,000 from two years ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.6% for October is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for October but is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.3%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

RBA getting it wrong on jobs

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 2 : 10-Dec-24

The Reserve Bank convened for its final board meeting for 2024 on Monday, with ACTU secretary Sally McManus being joined by union members outside its Sydney headquarters as she called on the RBA to cut interest rates. Melbourne University economics professor Jeff Borland, who is considered Australia’s leading labor market expert, contends the Australian jobs market is not as strong as the RBA thinks, and that its true state does not justify the RBA keeping the cash rate at 4.35 per cent; the RBA will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ACTU, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE

One in three jobs at serious risk in AI revolution

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 10-Dec-24

The Social Policy Group has forecast that artificial intelligence will result in ‘tectonic’ structural changes to the Australian economy and the nation’s workforce. The SPG’s report warns that these changes will be greater than any previous technical revolution. The report’s modelling suggests that in a worst-case scenario, up to 33 per cent of jobs in Australia could be impacted by AI by 2030 if there is no policy or regulatory intervention by govern­ment. The SPG has also expressed concern that Australia will fall behind other OECD economies due to the nation’s reliance on exporting raw materials and its dearth of high-value industries.

CORPORATES
SOCIAL POLICY GROUP

Jobs rush likely to postpone rate cut

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 20-Nov-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia has noted in the minutes of its board meeting for November that there are signs that the job market is beginning to tighten. The unemployment rate was steady at 4.1 per cent in October, and RBA governor Michelle Bullock has previously indicated that the strength of the labour market is amongst the reasons why further interest rate increases could be on the agenda. HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham agrees with the RBA’s assessment that the labour market may not weaken further, which is likely to rule out an interest rate cut in the near-term.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC HOLDINGS PLC

In October Australian unemployment dropped to 9.2% as full-time employment grew and over 100,000 left the workforce

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Nov-24

In October 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 60,000 to 1,450,000 (down 0.3% to 9.2% of the workforce), as over 100,000 people left the workforce. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.48 million Australians (9.4% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 22,000 from September. In total, 2.93 million Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in October. Australian employment dropped 58,000 to 14,247,000; this decrease was driven by a fall in part-time employment (down 190,000 to 4,743,000), but full-time employment increased 132,000 to a new record high of 9,504,000. The total workforce in October was 15,697,000 (down 118,000 from September, but up 867,000 from two years ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.2% for October is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for September, but it is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

In September Australian unemployment increased to 9.5% as workforce grew to a record high; but not enough new jobs created

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Oct-24

In September 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased by 87,000 to 1,510,000 (up 0.4% to 9.5% of the workforce), as more tham 100,000 people joined the workforce. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.45 million Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, down 43,000 from August. In total, 2.96 million Australians (18.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in September. However, overall employment was virtually unchanged, up 17,000 on a month ago to 14,305,000. Part-time employment increased by 32,000 to 4,933,000 while full-time employment dropped 15,000 to 9,372,000. The total workforce in September was 15,816,000 (up 105,000 from August, and up 497,000 from a year ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.5% for September is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.2% for August, but it is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ACTU’s new IR marching orders

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 2-Oct-24

ACTU secretary Sally McManus has revealed the union movement’s priorities if the federal government is re-elected for a second term. Amongst other things, unions will target junior pay rates for people who are 18-20 years of age and work in sectors such as retail, fast-food and pharmacy. The Fair Work Commission will hear the shop assistant union’s application to abolish junior pay rates next year, and McManus says the ACTU will lobby the government to legislate on the issue if the FWC rejects it. She says the loading rate for casual workers also needs to be reviewed, while the minimum standards for gig-economy workers should be extended to freelancers.

CORPORATES
ACTU