MARKET SURVEYS – AUSTRALIA

Economists see rates on hold this year

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Original article by Sarah Turner, Vesna Poljak, William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 & 21 : 1-Apr-19

The latest quarterly survey of economists shows that the general consensus is that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave official interest rates unchanged at 1.5 per cent for the remainder of 2019. The previous quarterly survey had shown that respondents expected rates to rise to 1.75 by the end of 2019. Meanwhile, the median forecast for the unemployment rate is 5 per cent by mid-2019, compared with a median forecast of 5.20 per cent in the previous survey. Expectations for underlying inflation in mid-2019 have also been pegged back, from 2.10 per cent in the January survey to 1.80 per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, LAMINAR CAPITAL PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Mobile Virtual Network Operators taking market share from Mobile Networks

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Mar-19

Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) are continuing to take market share from the traditional Mobile Network Operators (MNO) in the prepaid mobile market, according to the latest research from Roy Morgan. Over 6.7 million Australians (32.6%) now have a prepaid mobile phone, and a rising share of these prepaid mobile phones are bought via a MVNO, such as those operated by the likes of Aldi Mobile, Amaysim, Kogan, Boost, Lebara, Lycamobile. MVNOs are now used by nearly 2 million Australians, or 29.4% of consumers who have a prepaid mobile phone. This market penetration for MVNOs is up a significant 2.5ppts in the last year alone, and up by 6.3ppts from four years ago in the six months to July 2014. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the increased market share taken by MVNOs in the prepaid mobile market is driven by a range of factors, including Australians looking for a better phone deal.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, AMAYSIM AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX AYS, KOGAN.COM LIMITED – ASX KGN, BOOST MOBILE, LYCAMOBILE PTY LTD

Business Confidence virtually unchanged in February at 105.6

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Mar-19

Roy Morgan Business Confidence was virtually unchanged at 105.6 (down 0.3 points) in February. However, the consecutive ratings under 110 represent the weakest start to a year in the history of the Index dating back to 2011, and follow a slowing of the Australian economy to a GDP growth rate of only 0.2% during the December quarter, the slowest quarterly growth since 2016. Business Confidence in February was 14.4pts below its level of a year ago, and 10.3pts below its long-term average of 115.9. However, some industries have started 2019 with high and increasing confidence, including mining, accommodation and food services, and transport, postal and warehousing. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says business confidence should improve in the second half of 2019, once the federal and New South Wales elections are out of the way.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Casualisation of workforce falls, finds ABS

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Original article by Tim Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 23-Jan-19

Official data shows that casual employees accounted for 22 per cent of the Australian workforce in May 2018, down from 22.6 per cent two years earlier. The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ latest biennial employees earnings survey also shows that the number of employees totalled 10,647,200 in May 2018. Mark Wooden, the director of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey project, says the ABS survey provides an accurate reading on the number of casual employees as it interviews employers rather than workers.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, CENTRE FOR FUTURE WORK, ACTU

Volatility can’t stop deal-hungry companies

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 21 & 25 : 7-Dec-18

Herbert Smith Freehills partner Tony Damian believes that 2019 will be a stronger year than 2018 for mergers and acquisitions, and John Pickhaver of Macquarie Capital is similarly optimistic. Herbert Smith Freehills predicts that superannuation funds will show a continued willingness to be directly involved in M&A deals in 2019, while healthcare, property and infrastructure are tipped to be popular sectors for M&A activity in 2019. Announced 2018 Australian M&A deals totalled $US155.9 billion ($215.4 billion) as of 5 December, according to Refinitiv.

CORPORATES
HERBERT SMITH FREEHILLS PTY LTD, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD, GRAINCORP LIMITED – ASX GNC, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, COLES GROUP LIMITED – ASX COL, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, GREENCROSS LIMITED – ASX GXL, TPG TELECOM LIMITED – ASX TPM, VODAFONE AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, BGH CAPITAL PTY LTD, APA GROUP – ASX APA, CHEUNG KONG (HOLDINGS) LIMITED, BINGO INDUSTRIES LIMITED – ASX BIN, DIAL A DUMP INDUSTRIES PTY LTD, REFINITIV

Directors back tougher corporate penalties

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Original article by Sally Patten
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 25-Oct-18

Rising global protectionism has been identified as the biggest economic challenge facing local companies, according to a new survey by the Australian Institute of Company Directors. The bi-annual sentiment survey also shows that long-term growth prospects is the key issue that keeps directors awake at night. Meanwhile, more than 80 per cent of respondents have expressed support for the federal government’s push to increase the criminal and civil penalties for misconduct in the corporate sector.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF COMPANY DIRECTORS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, FISHBURNERS LIMITED, SIRTEX MEDICAL LIMITED – ASX SRX

Trust in politicians plummets

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Original article by Chris Merritt
The Australian – Page: 5 : 20-Aug-18

Trust in the federal government is at its lowest point since 2008, according to a survey by Griffith University and Transparency Inter­national. The decline in trust is linked to an increased belief that some federal MPs are corrupt, with 67 per cent of those surveyed favouring the creation of a federal anti-corruption body. Attorney-General Christian Porter says the government is examining existing anti-corruption arrangements and whether there is scope for them to be improved.

CORPORATES
GRIFFITH UNIVERSITY, TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL, AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT

House prices now set for sustained decline

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 12-Jul-18

A survey by the ANZ Bank and the Property Council of Australia has found that confidence in the nation’s residential property market has fallen sharply. The national survey of property professionals shows that there has been a significant rise in the number of respondents who expect a further decline in house prices, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. Respondents were also bearish regarding the availability of finance, and ANZ’s David Plank says this suggests that building approvals will fall in the next 6-12 months.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, STOCKLAND – ASX SGP

Freehills leads on promoting women partners

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Original article by Michael Pelly, Edmund Tadros
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 6-Jul-18

Law firms taking part in the annual "Australian Financial Review" Law Partnership Survey added 290 partners in the first six months of 2018, of which 126 were women. A total of 43 firms appointed new partners, with HWL Ebsworth Lawyers adding the most. Herbert Smith Freehills promoted eight women to the role of partner, but it did not promote any men. Richard Spurio of Allens said its target for women to comprise at least 35 per cent of its partners was achieved in 2017, five years ahead of schedule.

CORPORATES
HWL EBSWORTH PTY LTD, HERBERT SMITH FREEHILLS PTY LTD, ALLENS, MORAY AND AGNEW, MADDOCKS, MACPHERSON AND KELLEY LAWYERS PTY LTD, ASHURST AUSTRALIA, COLIN BIGGERS AND PAISLEY

No RBA rate hikes for a year

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Original article by Vesna Poljak, Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 20 : 2-Jul-18

A quarterly survey of economists shows that the general consensus is that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave interest rates on hold at 1.5 per cent until June 2019. The cash rate is now expected to reach two per cent by the end of 2019. However, former ANZ Bank chief economist Warren Hogan expects one rate increase by mid-2019, arguing that the RBA needs to begin the process of normalising monetary policy. Matthew Peter of QIC also expects one rate rise in the next 12 months.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, QIC LIMITED, UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, SYDNEY, BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, MARKET ECONOMICS PTY LTD, LAMINAR CAPITAL, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK