MONETARY POLICY – AUSTRALIA

Nailing cup victor easier than RBA pick

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Original article by Jacob Greber, James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 3-Nov-15

It is difficult to guess whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide to cut the official interest rate when the board of the central bank meets on 3 November 2015. Economists from Australia’s four big banks believe that the cash rate will remain unchanged at two per cent. Some analysts expect a cut, stressing the fact that headline inflation was only at 1.5 per cent in the September quarter.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BLOOMBERG LP, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Westpac’s Evans says no rate cut in sight

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 30-Oct-15

HSBC’s Paul Bloxham expects a reduction in Australia’s cash rate in either November or December 2015, in the wake of lower-than-expected inflation data in the September quarter. Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans in turn still believes that the cash rate will remain unchanged in November, noting that the Reserve Bank has ignored one-off falls in the inflation rate in the past. Andrew Ticehurst of Nomura expects the cash rate to remain on hold until February.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Aussie dives as third-quarter inflation figure surprises

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 29-Oct-15

The Australian dollar was buying $US0.7119 late in trading on 28 October 2015, after starting the session above $US0.72. The currency fell sharply in response to official data showing that the headline and core inflation rates were lower than forecast in the September quarter, which may strengthen the case for further monetary policy easing. Paul Dales of Capital Economics says an interest rate cut is possible in November.

CORPORATES
CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Diversify call to super funds

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 19-Oct-15

Australian superannuation funds are forecast to have some $US2.5trn ($A3.4trn) worth of assets under management by 2020, compared with $A2bn at the end of March 2015. Itay Tuchman of Citigroup says the strong growth in assets under management in coming years will require super funds to further expand the range of international asset classes in which they invest. Meanwhile, Tuchman says Westpac’s move to increase its mortgage interest rates will strengthen the case for a further reduction in the cash rate.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, INDIANA TOLL ROAD CONCESSION COMPANY, CANADA PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT BOARD

RBA urged not to cut interest rate

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 6-Oct-15

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s "shadow board" believes that the cash rate should either be left at two per cent for the next six months or increased. Shadow board member Mark Crosby says economic reforms such as tax cuts would do more to stimulate the economy than further rate cuts. He adds that more rate cuts may increase the debt problem in Australia. Crosby also says the growing expectation that rates will soon rise in the US should prompt the Reserve Bank to leave rates on hold.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES, MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY, UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY, UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

November RBA rate cut gains traction

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Original article by Rose Powell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 5-Oct-15

Data from Bloomberg shows that financial markets believe there is a 27 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points on 6 October 2015. Economists have cited factors such as the recent fall in the value of the Australian dollar and an improvement in business confidence as some of the factors that will influence the central bank’s decision. Citigroup anticipates a rate cut in November.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA needs to cut official interest rate to 1.5pc: ANZ

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 25-Sep-15

The ANZ Bank says Australia’s unemployment rate of 6.2 per cent is unlikely to fall significantly in the near-term due to factors such as slowing global economic growth and the uncertain outlook for the Chinese economy. Chief economist Warren Hogan warns that the unemployment rate could potentially rise over the next year or so. ANZ believes that a combination of factors means the Reserve Bank will have to reduce the cash rate in both February and May 2016.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

$A overshoots as iron ore export volumes up again

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 10-Sep-15

The Australian dollar is trading at around $US0.70, having recently fallen to $US0.6896. However, Annette Beacher of TD Securities argues that the rebound in the iron ore price means the currency should be trading at the $US0.76 level. Meanwhile, Beacher says the Reserve Bank is likely to maintain the cash rate at two per cent in the wake of the currency’s recent downturn.

CORPORATES
TD SECURITIES, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, GROUP OF TEN (G-10)

RBA moves to cool housing will take time

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 19-Aug-15

Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes of the July 2015 board meeting suggest that the central bank is likely to continue to keep the official interest rate at its current record low. The fall in the Australian dollar of five per cent against the US currency in June 2015 is expected to stimulate exports. The central bank noted that low interest rates had led to house price inflation.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, BARCLAYS BANK PLC

Housing ‘fascination’ won’t make us rich

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 13-Aug-15

Almost 75 per cent of the increase in the ratio of net wealth to gross domestic product since the late 1980s is due to higher land prices. This is distinct from the value of houses built on that land, according to Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Philip Lowe, who claims Australia’s fascination with housing is in reality a fascination with land. He also concludes the obsession with property is not making the nation better off as a whole, with low interest rates implying low returns for savers and low underlying returns on assets.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA