MORTGAGE LOANS – AUSTRALIA

Mortgage stress declined in March as household incomes increased and the RBA left interest rates unchanged

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-24

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,531,000 mortgage holders (30.3%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to March 2024. This was a fall of 98,000 (-1.1%) on a month earlier, after the RBA elected to leave interest rates unchanged for the third straight meeting. The level of mortgage stress in March is the lowest so far this year; this month’s decline has been driven by rising household incomes, which has reduced the financial pressure on some mortgage holders. The proportion of mortgage holders now ‘At Risk’ is well below the record high of 35.6% reached during the Global Financial Crisis because of the larger size of the Australian mortgage market today. However, the number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 724,000 since May 2022 when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress, is now numbered at 918,000 (18.7% of mortgage holders), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.4%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

First-timers, low earners in housing crunch

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 17-Apr-24

A report from the ANZ Bank shows that the average proportion of income that is needed to service a new mortgage rose to 48.9 per cent nationwide in the March quarter; this compares with 43.1 per cent during the same period in 2023. The ANZ Housing Affordability report also reveals that it now takes an average of 10.3 years to save enough money for a house deposit. Meanwhile, ANZ found that the average renter must now allocate 32.2 per cent of their income to rent; this rises to 54.3 per cent for low-income earners.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Mortgage stress continued to increase in February to a new record high of 1.63 million; despite no RBA rate rise

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Mar-24

New research from Roy Morgan shows that a record 1,629,000 mortgage holders (31.4%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to February 2024. This was an increase of 20,000 (+0.4%) on the record high number in January 2024 (1,609,000), despite the Reserve Bank board electing to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.35% at its February meeting. However, the proportion of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ is still well below the record high of 35.6% reached during the Global Financial Crisis because of the larger size of the mortgage market today. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 822,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 987,000 (19.7% of mortgage holders), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.3%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Borrowers on slow march to mortgage cliff amid rollover

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 19-Mar-24

The Commonwealth Bank’s head of Australian economics Gareth Aird notes that the worst fears about the so-called ‘mortgage cliff’ have not eventuated. However, he adds that the shift from fixed to variable-rate home loans has had an impact on many households’ spending. Meanwhile, it is estimated that more than 250,000 households will transition to variable-rate home loans over the next 18 months; their mortgage repayments are set to rise sharply, even if the Reserve Bank does not increase the cash rate again.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Lending malaise as home loans retreat

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Original article by Megan Neil
The Australian – Page: 19 : 8-Mar-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the value of new housing loans fell by 3.9 per cent to $25.12bn in January; this followed a 4.1 per cent decline in December. The general consensus of economists had been for two per cent growth in home loans during January. The value of new owner-occupier loans fell by 4.6 per cent to $15.91bn, and lending to property investors was down 2.6 per cent to $9.21bn. Meanwhile, lending to first-home buyers was down 6.9 per cent, and the value of those loans fell by six per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

More at risk of mortgage stress as rate rises take toll

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Original article by Paulina Duran
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 28-Feb-24

Data from Roy Morgan shows that a record 1.6 million Australians were ‘at risk’ of mortgage stress in the three months to January. The Roy Morgan report shows that an additional 802,000 people have had to spend up to 45 per cent of their after-tax household income on their mortgage repayments since the Reserve Bank began raising the cash rate, putting them at risk of mortgage stress. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says another 29,000 home-loan borrowers would be at risk by April if the RBA increases the cash rate in March. Separate data shows that prime mortgage arrears among publicly securitised loans rose by 0.5 per cent to 0.97 per cent in the December quarter; Erin Kitson of S&P Global Ratings expects arrears rates to peak above one per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

Mortgage stress increased in January following RBA’s November rate rise to record high above 1.6 million

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Feb-24

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,609,000 mortgage holders (31.0%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to January 2024. This period included an interest rate increase on Melbourne Cup Day, with the RBA raising interest rates to 4.35%. The figure for January represented a new record high total for mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress, beating the previous record highs above 1.56 million in August and September 2023. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 802,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 994,000 (19.8% of mortgage holders), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.3%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Mortgage stress increased in December following RBA’s November rate rise but still below mid-year highs

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jan-24

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,527,000 mortgage holders (30.3%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to December 2023. This period included an interest rate increase on Melbourne Cup Day, with the RBA raising interest rates to 4.35%. The figure for December represented the highest level of mortgage stress for three months as the impact of the interest rate increase flowed through, but still below the record highs above 1.56 million mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ in both August and September 2023. This is only the fourth time the index has shown over 1.5 million mortgage holders to be considered ‘At Risk’. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 720,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 964,000 (19.8% of mortgage holders), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.2%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Mortgage stress continued to ease in November despite the RBA raising interest rates on Melbourne Cup Day

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jan-24

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,490,000 mortgage holders (29.9%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to November 2023. This period included only one interest rate increase on Melbourne Cup Day, with the RBA raising interest rates to 4.35%. The figure for November represented a second straight monthly decrease as mortgage stress continued to ease due to a combination of factors – including increased household incomes, increased employment and reduced amounts borrowed and outstanding. This is the first time since January 2022 (before the RBA began raising interest rates) that mortgage stress has decreased for two straight months. However, despite the easing in mortgage stress this was only the sixth time in the history of the index that over 1.45 million mortgage holders were considered ‘At Risk’. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 683,000 since May 2022 when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 934,000 (19.3% of mortgage holders) which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.2%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Mortgage stress eased in October before the RBA raised interest rates on Melbourne Cup Day

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Nov-23

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,514,000 mortgage holders (30.1%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to October 2023. This period included three RBA meetings at which interest rates were left unchanged and was before the increase on Melbourne Cup Day. The figure for October represented a slight decrease on a month earlier as mortgage stress eased due to a combination of factors, such as increased household incomes, increased employment and reduced amounts borrowed and outstanding. Despite the slight easing in mortgage stress, this was only the third time in the history of the index that over 1.5 million mortgage holders were considered ‘At Risk’. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 707,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 967,000 (19.7%), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.1%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED