Borrowers on slow march to mortgage cliff amid rollover

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 19-Mar-24

The Commonwealth Bank’s head of Australian economics Gareth Aird notes that the worst fears about the so-called ‘mortgage cliff’ have not eventuated. However, he adds that the shift from fixed to variable-rate home loans has had an impact on many households’ spending. Meanwhile, it is estimated that more than 250,000 households will transition to variable-rate home loans over the next 18 months; their mortgage repayments are set to rise sharply, even if the Reserve Bank does not increase the cash rate again.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Lending malaise as home loans retreat

Original article by Megan Neil
The Australian – Page: 19 : 8-Mar-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the value of new housing loans fell by 3.9 per cent to $25.12bn in January; this followed a 4.1 per cent decline in December. The general consensus of economists had been for two per cent growth in home loans during January. The value of new owner-occupier loans fell by 4.6 per cent to $15.91bn, and lending to property investors was down 2.6 per cent to $9.21bn. Meanwhile, lending to first-home buyers was down 6.9 per cent, and the value of those loans fell by six per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

More at risk of mortgage stress as rate rises take toll

Original article by Paulina Duran
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 28-Feb-24

Data from Roy Morgan shows that a record 1.6 million Australians were ‘at risk’ of mortgage stress in the three months to January. The Roy Morgan report shows that an additional 802,000 people have had to spend up to 45 per cent of their after-tax household income on their mortgage repayments since the Reserve Bank began raising the cash rate, putting them at risk of mortgage stress. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says another 29,000 home-loan borrowers would be at risk by April if the RBA increases the cash rate in March. Separate data shows that prime mortgage arrears among publicly securitised loans rose by 0.5 per cent to 0.97 per cent in the December quarter; Erin Kitson of S&P Global Ratings expects arrears rates to peak above one per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

Mortgage stress increased in January following RBA’s November rate rise to record high above 1.6 million

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Feb-24

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,609,000 mortgage holders (31.0%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to January 2024. This period included an interest rate increase on Melbourne Cup Day, with the RBA raising interest rates to 4.35%. The figure for January represented a new record high total for mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress, beating the previous record highs above 1.56 million in August and September 2023. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 802,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 994,000 (19.8% of mortgage holders), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.3%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Mortgage stress increased in December following RBA’s November rate rise but still below mid-year highs

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jan-24

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,527,000 mortgage holders (30.3%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to December 2023. This period included an interest rate increase on Melbourne Cup Day, with the RBA raising interest rates to 4.35%. The figure for December represented the highest level of mortgage stress for three months as the impact of the interest rate increase flowed through, but still below the record highs above 1.56 million mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ in both August and September 2023. This is only the fourth time the index has shown over 1.5 million mortgage holders to be considered ‘At Risk’. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 720,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 964,000 (19.8% of mortgage holders), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.2%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Mortgage stress continued to ease in November despite the RBA raising interest rates on Melbourne Cup Day

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jan-24

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,490,000 mortgage holders (29.9%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to November 2023. This period included only one interest rate increase on Melbourne Cup Day, with the RBA raising interest rates to 4.35%. The figure for November represented a second straight monthly decrease as mortgage stress continued to ease due to a combination of factors – including increased household incomes, increased employment and reduced amounts borrowed and outstanding. This is the first time since January 2022 (before the RBA began raising interest rates) that mortgage stress has decreased for two straight months. However, despite the easing in mortgage stress this was only the sixth time in the history of the index that over 1.45 million mortgage holders were considered ‘At Risk’. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 683,000 since May 2022 when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 934,000 (19.3% of mortgage holders) which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.2%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Mortgage stress eased in October before the RBA raised interest rates on Melbourne Cup Day

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Nov-23

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 1,514,000 mortgage holders (30.1%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to October 2023. This period included three RBA meetings at which interest rates were left unchanged and was before the increase on Melbourne Cup Day. The figure for October represented a slight decrease on a month earlier as mortgage stress eased due to a combination of factors, such as increased household incomes, increased employment and reduced amounts borrowed and outstanding. Despite the slight easing in mortgage stress, this was only the third time in the history of the index that over 1.5 million mortgage holders were considered ‘At Risk’. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 707,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 967,000 (19.7%), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.1%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Over 1.57 million Australians are now At Risk of ‘mortgage stress’, representing 30.3% of mortgage holders

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Nov-23

New research from Roy Morgan shows that a record high 1,573,000 mortgage holders (30.3%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to September 2023; this is 7,000 higher than in August. The period encompassed three RBA meetings at which interest rates were left unchanged. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 766,000 since May 2022, when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. The number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ is now numbered at 1,043,000 (20.5%) which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 15 years of 15.3%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

1.43 million Australians At Risk of mortgage stress in June 2023, representing 28.7% of mortgage holders

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Jul-23

New research from Roy Morgan shows that an estimated 1.43 million mortgage holders (28.7%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to June 2023. This period encompassed two interest rate increases of 0.25%, taking official interest rates to 4.1% in June. This is the equal highest number of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress for more than 15 years, since there were 1.46 million ‘At Risk’ in May 2008. The number of Australians who are ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 539,000 over the last year. However, the overall number of Australians in mortgage stress remains below the high reached during the Global Financial Crisis in early 2008 of 35.6% (1,455,000 mortgage holders). Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ has increased to 943,000 (19.6%) in the three months to June, which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 15 years of 15.4%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

1.4m borrowers at risk of repayment stress

Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 5-Jul-23

The Reserve Bank of Australia has signalled that further interest rate rises may be necessary in order to return inflation to its target range, after leaving the cash rate unchanged at 4.1 per cent on Tuesday. Households will face further financial pressure if there are more rate rises. Home loan borrowers will be particularly vulnerable, with research from Roy Morgan showing that 1.43 million mortgage borrowers are now at risk of mortgage stress; this is an increase of 627,000 in the last year. Roy Morgan estimates that an additional 51,000 borrowers would be at risk of mortgage stress if the cash rate is increased by another 25 basis points. A second rate rise of this size would put another 94,000 borrowers at risk of mortgage stress.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ROY MORGAN LIMITED