MORTGAGE LOANS – AUSTRALIA

Mortgage stress increases to its highest since August 2008 with 27.8% of mortgage holders now At Risk

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Jun-23

New research from Roy Morgan shows that an estimated 1.38 million mortgage holders (27.8%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to April 2023. This period encompassed two interest rate increases of 0.25%, taking official interest rates to 3.6% in April. This is the highest number of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ since August 2008, when more than 1.4 million were ‘At Risk’. The proportion of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now the highest since October 2011 (28.3%). The number of Australians who are ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 529,000 over the last year. However, despite the sharp increase in the level of mortgage stress during the last year the overall number remains below the high reached during the Global Financial Crisis in early 2009 of 35.6% (1,455,000 mortgage holders). Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ has increased to 881,000 (18.5%), which is significantly above the long-term average over the last 15 years of 661,000 (15.9%). These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Mortgage stress increases to its highest since April 2012 with 24.9% of mortgage holders now At Risk

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Mar-23

New research from Roy Morgan shows that an estimated 1.19 million mortgage holders (24.9%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to January 2023. This period encompassed two interest rate increases of 0.25%. The proportion of mortgage holders now considered ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress is the highest since June 2012 and is now significantly above the long-term average of 22.8% stretching back to early 2007. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 486,000 over the last year. However, despite the sharp increase in the level of mortgage stress the overall number remains well below the high reached during the Global Financial Crisis in early 2009 of 35.6% (1,455,000 mortgage holders). Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’, has increased to 710,000 (15.4%), which is slightly above the long-term average over the last 15 years of 659,000 (15.9%). These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Banks demand buy now, pay later details for home loans

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 13 & 17 : 23-Dec-22

ING and Macquarie Bank have told mortgage brokers that they are now including buy now, pay later debts when assessing a person’s ability to repay a mortgage or other type of loan. ING has also advised brokers that outstanding Higher Education Contribution Scheme (HECS) or Higher Education Loan Program (HELP) debt amounts need to be included in the loan serviceability assessment, while it is to increase the minimum required deposit from five per cent to 10 per cent to line up with its align with its lenders’ mortgage insurer’s policy on "high-risk postcodes".

CORPORATES
ING AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL

Housing affordability set to worsen despite falling house prices

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 24-Nov-22

The latest ANZ/CoreLogic Housing Affordability report shows that rising interest rates saw the cost of servicing a mortgage surge in the September quarter. The proportion of income needed to repay a new mortgage rose by 4.4 percentage points nationwide, to 43.3 per cent. This metric rose to a record high of 51.1 per cent in Sydney, while it increased by 4.3 per cent to 42.4 per cent in Melbourne. Eliza Owen of CoreLogic says mortgage serviceability is likely to worsen given that further increases in the cash rate are expected.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Mortgage stress increases to its highest since April 2018 with 22.6% of mortgage holders now At Risk

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Nov-22

New research from Roy Morgan shows that an estimated 1,013,000 mortgage holders (22.6%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to October 2022. This period encompassed two interest rate increases of 0.5% and an increase of 0.25% in early October, taking official interest rates to 2.6% – the level since August 2013. Since then, there has been another interest rate increase of 0.25% in November. Despite these interest rate increases the proportion of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress is well below the high reached during the Global Financial Crisis in early 2009 of 35.6% (1,455,000 mortgage holders). The number of mortgage holders now considered ‘At Risk’ is now just below the long-term average over the last 15 years of 22.8%. Meanwhile, the number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’ increased to 619,000 (14.4%) in the three months to October, which remains clearly below the long-term average over the last 15 years of 659,000 (15.9%). These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Homeowners rush to refinance their loans

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 5-Oct-22

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that a record $19bn worth of home loans were refinanced in August. This is five per cent higher than in July, and 10 per cent higher than a year ago. Owner-occupiers refinanced some $12.8bn worth of home loans, while property investors refinanced $6.1bn worth of loans. The figures also show that new mortgage loan commitments fell 3.4 per cent to $27.4bn in August; there has been a 15 per cent decline in housing loan commitments since the Reserve Bank started increasing the cash rate in May.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Interest rate rises: One in four Aussie mortgage holders could face financial stress

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Original article by Sarah Sharples
News.com.au – Page: Online : 4-Oct-22

Roy Morgan research reveals that close to one in four mortgage holders would be at risk of mortgage stress if the Reserve Bank lifts interest rates by 0.5% in both October and November. It would be the equivalent of 1.1 million people, and would represent the highest number of mortgage holders classed as being at risk since July 2013; Roy Morgan defines mortgage stress as having repayments greater than between 25% and 45% of household income. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the variable that has the greatest impact on whether a borrower falls into the ‘at risk’ category is household income – which is directly related to employment. She says that if employment figures remain strong, the number of mortgage holders at risk should not reach the levels seen during the global financial crisis between 2007 and 2009, when the percentage of mortgage holders at risk peaked at 35.6% in May 2008.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Mortgage stress is growing in 2022 and set to rise further as the RBA continues to increase interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Sep-22

New research from Roy Morgan shows that an estimated 854,000 mortgage holders (19.4%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to July 2022. This period encompassed the first three interest rate increases from the Reserve Bank. The good news is that the proportion of mortgage holders considered to be ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress in mid-2022 is well below the high reached during the Global Financial Crisis in early 2009 of 35.6% (1,455,000 mortgage holders) and below the average of the last decade of 20.8% (904,000). Meanwhile, only 12.7% (542,000) of mortgage holders were considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress in the three months to July 2022, below the average of the last decade of 13.9% (585,000 mortgage holders). These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

One in five mortgagors will struggle to pay 3pc rate rise

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 & 30 : 10-Aug-22

Comparison site Finder estimates that the average mortgage interest rate would rise to 5.85 per cent if the cash rate reaches 2.5 per cent. Finder’s Richard Whitten says recent home buyers in particular will struggle to make mortgage repayments if the cash rate continues to rise. A survey by Finder has found that one in five people with a mortgage would find it hard to make repayments if their interest rate increased by three per cent, while many would consider selling their home. SQM Research MD Louise Christopher cautions that selling in a downturn would be an added challenge for distressed home owners.

CORPORATES
FINDER.COM.AU, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

Mortgage stress set to rise as interest rates continue to increase during second half of 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Jun-22

New research from Roy Morgan shows that an estimated 762,000 mortgage holders (17.5%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to March 2022. This period encompassed the ‘Omicron wave’ of COVID-19 throughout Australia, although interest rates in the first few months of 2022 were still at a record low level of only 0.10%. Mortgage stress dropped to record lows during 2021 as record low interest rates, government stimulus, and considerable measures taken by banks and financial institutions to support borrowers in financial distress all combined to reduce the number of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ to fewer than 600,000 for the first time. There has been a similar trend for mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’, with only 10.7%, or 438,000, in this group in the three months to March 2022, close to a record low. However, there has been a big change in the last few months as concerns about inflation have increased and the RBA has commenced an interest rate hiking cycle.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED