Last weekend’s Roy Morgan face-to-face poll shows: ALP 52.5%, L-NP 47.5%. L-NP jump 3% on 2PP after ALP vote to loosen border protection laws

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Feb-19

An Australia-wide Roy Morgan face-to-face poll conducted over the weekend of 16-17 February shows that support for the ALP on a two-party preferred basis is 52.5%, compared with 47.5% for the L-NP. There has been a 3% swing to the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis following the ALP’s decision to back the medivac legislation. The L-NP’s primary vote has risen by 2.5% to 37%, while the ALP’s primary vote has fallen 1.5% to 34.5%. Roy Morgan’s executive chairman Gary Morgan says the results of the Roy Morgan poll show that the issue of border protection is a major strength for the L-NP; however, a lot can happen between now and the Federal Election in May.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Palmer’s New Year Advertising Blitz fails to attract voters – United Australia Party at 1%

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Feb-19

Clive Palmer has been ubiquitous on Australian screens – whether TV, mobile, tablet, or computer over the last few weeks, but the latest Roy Morgan Poll conducted with 1,673 electors over the last fortnight shows that Palmer’s 2019 advertising blitz has failed to convince Australians to give the former Fairfax MP another chance in Federal politics. Palmer’s newly rebranded United Australia Party (UAP) is attracting only 1% of the vote and trails fellow Queensland based party One Nation on 3% support. In total 29.5% of Australians are supporting minor parties and independents, but this figure is dominated by the Greens (12.5%) and Independents/Others (11.5%). The remaining 5.5% is spread between One Nation, UAP, Katter’s Australian Party, Australian Conservatives and the Christian Democratic Party. The ALP (36%) leads the L-NP (34.5%) on primary votes and the ALP enjoys a comfortable two-party preferred lead over the L-NP on the back of Greens preferences. Greens preferences traditionally flow to the ALP on a ratio of 80% cf. 20%. Roy Morgan has in-depth demographic and voting data for all 151 Australian electorates as Australians head toward a Federal Election due in three months’ time.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY, ONE NATION PARTY, KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY, AUSTRALIAN CONSERVATIVES, CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Dutton, Abbott top GetUp hit list

Original article by Luke Griffiths
The Australian – Page: 4 : 17-Jan-19

GetUp has carried out an online poll in which respondents were asked to nominate three federal MPs who should be ousted from parliament at the next election due to their views on issues such as climate change and immigration. Peter Dutton attracted 22,028 votes, ahead of former prime minister Tony Abbott and George Christensen. Paul Oosting, the national director of GetUp, say the results of the poll will influence the activist group’s campaign strategy.

CORPORATES
GETUP LIMITED, EUROPEAN CLIMATE FOUNDATION

Libs believe election is still winnable

Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 11-Dec-18

Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton is among the senior Liberal MPs who are optimistic that the Coalition can win the 2019 federal election. He notes that the Coalition won an election under former prime minister John Howard despite a worse performance in public opinion polls than at present. He adds that Prime Minister Scott Morrison will be much more effective in campaigning than predecesser Malcolm Turnbull. The Coalition’s internal polling is believed to show that it is faring better than published polls suggest.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Labor wants anti-corruption watchdog

Original article by Oliver Caffrey
News.com.au – Page: Online : 21-Nov-18

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has urged Prime Minister Scott Morrison to support Labor’s push to establish a National Integrity Commission. Labor had flagged plans for a national anti-corruption agency in early 2018, and Shorten says he will seek the support of crossbenchers for the proposal when Parliament resumes in late November. A survey by Roy Morgan in September found strong support for a national anti-corruption watchdog. The SMS Morgan Poll showed that 90% of Australians support establishing a National Crimes Authority to investigate federal government, union and private sector corruption.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT

LaTrobe University Bold Thinking Series – Is Democracy Broken featuring Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine, Tony Walker, Mark Textor and others (Video)

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Oct-18

The high turnover of Prime Ministers in Australia suggests a democratic system showing signs of a broader political malaise. Analysing the state of Australian politics means understanding the interplay of "trust" and, even more importantly "distrust" in politics. (Vid 15:40). Levine asserts that "Trust is more important than ever before. When we’re all unnerved and uncertain, trust is absolutely critical. So trust is really the foundation of all human connections. It’s the glue." (Vid: 23:15). Levine on the importance of polls even considering the challenges faced in this day and age: "It’s really really important and we shouldn’t knock these polls completely. Polls are actually the voice of the people" and "Our leaders really need to understand what people, everybody’s fears, are." (Vid: 1:04:30) Roy Morgan Executive Chairman Gary Morgan posed a question about Australian democracy – to Katharine Murphy of the Guardian – "What have you done about correcting the error on what you published in the Guardian the ReachTel poll commissioned by Greenpeace" (on the Wentworth by-election). Murphy responded by expressing concern about "single seat polls" and "the rise of activists groups commissioning polls in order to massage public opinion in various ways and a lot of those activist commissioned polls have push poll questions that elicit certain responses from voters". For the full video of the discussion access the video here:

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Wentworth by-election means death of cheap robo-polling & leaked private party polls!

Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Morgan Poll Analysis – Page: Online : 25-Oct-18

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine two days before the Wentworth by-election on Sky News’ new political show "Conroy & Kroger" when asked why she was so critical of cheap polls said: "They may be cheaper, but I can’t really see any point in doing a poll that is going to get the wrong answer. And this is not, as somebody was saying earlier, about people not wanting to tell the truth or in fact lying when they get polled, it’s not that at all, it’s just that these modern new silly ways of polling which are either robo-polls or telephone polls which only get a small proportion of the population or online polls with commercial panels of people who volunteer to be part of it, they only get a really small piece of the population." A stunning example is provided by the Greenpeace ReachTel robo-poll results which last week was reported on by Carly Earl for the Guardian prior to the Wentworth by-election. The Greenpeace ReachTel robo-poll primary vote predictions were significantly in error for several of the leading candidates. Out by more than 10% for Liberal Dave Sharma and ALP candidate Tim Murray and out by more than 3% for the two Independent candidates Kerryn Phelps and Licia Heath. The ReachTel robo-poll’s prediction for the critical two candidate preferred result was even further out. Not only did the two-candidate preferred result compound the error made by being over 10% out on the primary vote for Liberal candidate Dave Sharma and ALP candidate Tim Murray but the preference flows were a further source of error and meant the poll was completely wrong when predicting the two-candidate preferred result between Phelps and Sharma. For the full analysis and video of Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine’s appearance on Conroy & Kroger click through here.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, GREENPEACE, REACHTEL PTY LTD, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, SKY NEWS

Phelps to trounce Liberals in key seat, party polling shows

Original article by Andrew Clennell
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 17-Oct-18

Liberal Party candidate Dave Sharma seems set to lose the Wentworth by-election on 21 October, according to the party’s latest polling. It shows that independent candidate Kerryn Phelps leads Sharma 55-45 on a two-party-preferred basis. The Liberals’ previous polling in Wentworth showed that Sharma had a narrow lead over Phelps. Meanwhile, Phelps is under scrutiny for allegedly breaching electoral laws by making election-related social media posts without the required authorisation.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN ELECTORAL COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION LIMITED

Liberal leadership fight boosts ALP support, but ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence also up after Liberal leadership resolved

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Aug-18

The latest Morgan Poll shows Federal support for the L-NP down 3.5% to 46% following a week of leadership upheaval for the Federal Liberal Party, boosting ALP support by 3.5% to 54% on a two-party preferred basis according to interviewing conducted on the weekend of August 25/26 with 821 electors. The two Morgan Polls taken over the past week show that the former Malcolm Turnbull-led L-NP Government was within striking distance of the ALP on the weekend before Turnbull was ousted as Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader. The L-NP was on 49.5% compared with 50.5% for the ALP on a two-party preferred basis on the weekend of August 18/19, according to interviewing conducted with 886 electors. Although leadership tensions in a party usually undermine support for that party and undermine confidence, the leadership upheaval has not negatively impacted on broader Consumer Confidence – ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has increased 2.4pts to 116.5. Interviewing for Consumer Confidence was taken entirely after the resolution of the Liberal leadership contest and Scott Morrison being sworn in as Australia’s 30th Prime Minister. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine notes that Roy Morgan Government Confidence plunged by 11pts on the weekend to 84 with only 33.5% (down 6.5%) of Australians saying Australia is "heading in the right direction". She adds that it is a rare occurrence that Consumer Confidence and Government Confidence move in such different directions; however, the leadership issues at the top of the Government are a clear catalyst on this occasion.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Australians worried about Government’s instability, favouritism towards big business and climate change if an L-NP Government is re-elected. Concerns if the ALP is elected to Government centre on union influence, poor economic management and policies on immigration and refugees

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Aug-18

Australians have responded to the unprecedented leadership instability at the head of the Turnbull Government by outlining their concerns about a re-elected L-NP Government and their worries about an ALP Government should it be elected at the next Federal Election – which could be held at any time between now and May 2019. Australians are most concerned about the continuing instability that would impact on a re-elected L-NP Government while the L-NP’s perceived favouritism towards "big business", and policies towards climate change and refugees and immigration are pressing concerns. If an ALP Government were elected at the next Federal Election Australians are worried about the perceived strong union influence on a Bill Shorten-led Government as well as the ALP’s poor economic management abilities, reckless spending and concerns from both ALP & L-NP supporters about the ALP’s policies towards immigration and refugees. For full details, including verbatim responses from Australian electors, click through.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY