PUBLIC OPINION POLLS – AUSTRALIA

Morgan Poll finds: ALP grabs election winning lead after first week of the campaign – ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 16-May-16

The ALP 52.5% (up 1.5%) has an election-winning two-party preferred lead over the L-NP 47.5% (down 1.5%) after the first week of official campaigning. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull called the Federal Election just over a week ago and today’s Morgan Poll shows the first week has been won by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. The ALP increased support strongly in Western Australia ALP 54% (up 5%) cf. L-NP 46% (down 5%) and Tasmania ALP 57% (up 5%) cf. L-NP 43% (down 5%) after the first week and there were also smaller swings to the ALP in Victoria and Queensland. However, there is still a long way to go in the Federal Election campaign and the massive vote (30.5%) for the minor parties shows the minor parties will definitely hold the balance of power in the Senate and led by the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) could also control the balance of power in the House of Representatives. The strong performance of the minor parties in today’s Morgan Poll shows that neither Turnbull nor Shorten has successfully articulated clear policies and a plan that minor party supporters will vote for.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY, PALMER UNITED PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Turnbull supported as Liberal Leader by 41% (down 23%) while Plibersek (22%) and Albanese (20%) still well ahead of Shorten 14% (up 5%) for ALP

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 6-May-16

A special telephone Morgan Poll, which was carried out on 4-5 May 2016, has found that 41 per cent of Australian electors prefer Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal Party Leader, while 24 per cent prefer Deputy Leader Julie Bishop and seven per cent prefer former Prime Minister Tony Abbott. Meanwhile, 22 per cent of electors prefer Deputy Opposition Leader Tanya Plibersek as Australian Labor Party Leader, ahead of Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese (20 per cent) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (14 per cent). Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says Labor’s best chance of a surprise victory in the upcoming Federal Election may be a last-minute leadership switch to Plibersek, as Labor did in 1983 when Bob Hawke replaced Bill Hayden as party Leader on the day Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser called an early Federal Election. Voting Intention telephone Morgan Poll conducted after Budget released Friday 6, 2016 – LNP 51% ALP 49%.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Turnbull 57% (but down 19%) still preferred Australian PM cf. Shorten 24% (up 10%) after Federal Budget handed down

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 6-May-16

A special telephone Morgan Poll, which was carried out on 4-5 May 2016, has found that 57 per cent of Australian electors rate Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull as the "Better PM"’. This is 19 per cent lower than a telephone Morgan Poll in October 2015. In contrast, 24 per cent of electors rate Opposition Leader Bill Shorten as the "Better PM", an increase of 10 per cent. Meanwhile, the number of electors who approve of Turnbull’s handling of his job as PM has fallen by 23 per cent to 43 per cent, and the proportion of electors who approve of Shorten’s handling of his job as Opposition Leader has risen by nine per cent to 34 per cent. Voting Intention telephone Morgan Poll conducted after Budget released Friday 6, 2016 – LNP 51% ALP 49%.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

ALP in front but Election too close to call: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%; Roy Morgan Government Confidence falls to 98 – lowest since Turnbull became PM.

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 2-May-16

A multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention has found that support for Australia’s ruling Liberal-National Coalition on a two-party preferred basis has risen by one per cent to 51 per cent. The poll, which was carried out on the weekends of 23-24 April and 30 April-1 May 2016, also shows that the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen by 0.5 to 40 per cent per cent, while the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen by one point to 98. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says the looming Federal Election means tomorrow’s Federal Budget is the Turnbull Government’s best chance to shape the narrative and lay out the ground on which this year’s Federal Election will be fought. The Government has clearly gone into "election-mode" already with the announcement last week of a $50 billion defence spending commitment to build 12 new Shortfin Barracuda submarines in South Australia – although under contract to French company DCNS.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, DIRECTION DES CONSTRUCTION NAVALES

Morgan Poll, the ABCC and banking industry regulation

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 18-Apr-16

Despite Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull receiving good publicity surrounding last week’s visit to China, today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP 50% (down 2.5%) dead-locked with the ALP 50% (up 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after Opposition Leader Bill Shorten called for a Royal Commission into the Banking & Finance industry – an idea which found widespread public support. The next three weeks leading into the Federal Budget will play an important role in determining whether the Turnbull Government can show leadership and live up to its image as the better economic managers. Malcolm Turnbull needs to convince Australian electors on "why" the construction industry needs to be subjected to additional regulation and the ABCC legislation must be passed; and why the banks are already sufficiently controlled by Government regulation (APRA, ASIC and the RBA). If not the ALP will continue to undermine the Government’s narrative and present itself as a credible Government in waiting.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Election would be too close to call: L-NP 50% cf. ALP 50%; Roy Morgan Government Confidence falls 7pts to 99 – lowest since Turnbull became PM.

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 18-Apr-16

In mid-April L-NP support is 50% (down 2.5%) cf. ALP 50% (up 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis following debate about the reintroduction of the ABCC (Australian Building & Construction Commission) and Labor calls for a Royal Commission into the Banking and Finance industries. If a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call and would likely result in a hung Parliament. Primary support for the L-NP is 40.5% (down 1.5%) with ALP at 32% (up 1%). Support for the Greens is up 1% to 14%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 4.5% (unchanged; 22.5% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 0.5% (unchanged), Palmer United Party is 0% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others are at 8.5% (down 0.5%). The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down this week – down 7pts to 99 with 40.5% (down 2%) of Australians saying Australia is "heading in the right direction" and 41.5% (up 5%) saying Australia is "heading in the wrong direction". This is the first time the Government Confidence Rating has dipped below 100 since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister in mid-September 2015.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY, PALMER UNITED PARTY, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

L-NP in front again as Turnbull shows leadership

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 4-Apr-16

This week’s Morgan Poll lift in L-NP support (now L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5%) shows Turnbull has re-established the Federal Government as "better managers" by using the ABCC debate to link economic management to union corruption in the building and construction industry. The Federal Opposition has stated they will campaign at the Federal Election on increasing Federal funding including Health and Education (both State issues) from raising significant revenue from elimination of taxation minimisation. Last weekend Turnbull "cleverly" outmanoeuvred the States and Federal Opposition by neutralising health and education funding by offering State Premiers the right to raise their own State income tax – good policy but political suicide! In these difficult times, the only real solution is to cut Local, State and Federal Government spending.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION

L-NP in front again as Turnbull shows leadership

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 4-Apr-16

A multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention has found that support for Australia’s ruling Liberal-National Coalition on a two-party preferred basis has risen by three per cent to 52.5 per cent. The poll, which was carried out on the weekends of 26-27 March and 2-3 April 2016, also shows that the Coalition’s primary vote has risen by two per cent to 42 per cent, while the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen by 2.5 points to 106.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY, PALMER UNITED PARTY, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

ALP increases support in all Australian States. Queensland electors narrowly turn down new election after Referendum on 4 year terms successful

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 1-Apr-16

An SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention, which was carried out from 25-28 March 2016, has found that support for Queensland’s ALP Government has risen by four per cent to 52 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. The poll also shows that Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s rating as "Better Premier" has risen by two per cent to 63.5 per cent. In New South Wales, support for the L-NP Government has fallen by 4.5 per cent to 55.5 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, while Mike Baird’s rating as "Better Premier" has fallen by 7.5 per cent to 64.5 per cent. In Victoria, support for the ALP Government has risen by 1.5 per cent to 55 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, while Daniel Andrews’ rating as "Better Premier" has risen by 0.5 per cent to 63 per cent.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF NEW SOUTH WALES, NEW SOUTH WALES. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL-NATIONAL PARTY OF QUEENSLAND, QUEENSLAND. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA, WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA, SOUTH AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF TASMANIA, TASMANIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, PALMER UNITED PARTY, CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY, COUNTRY ALLIANCE, KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY, FAMILY FIRST PARTY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NICK XENOPHON TEAM

ALP & L-NP now too close to call as electors react to Government forcing Senate voting changes last week as Turnbull today recalls Parliament in April for Double Dissolution Election showdown

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Original article by Gary Morgan
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 22-Mar-16

This week’s Morgan Poll shows that the ALP (50.5 per cent, up 3.5 per cent) is now just in front of the L-NP (49.5 per cent, down 3.5 per cent) on a two-party preferred basis, after a chaotic week in which the Coalition Government with the help of the Greens forced contentious electoral changes through the Senate against the wishes of the ALP and the cross-benchers, who face losing their seats under the new system. Following on from last week’s Senate voting reform, Turnbull has turned up the heat on the Senate cross-benchers by deciding to recall Parliament in four weeks’ time to debate the reintroduction of the Australian Building & Construction Commission (ABCC). Turnbull has explicitly told the Senate cross-benchers to either pass the Bill restoring the ABCC or face a Double Dissolution Election on 2 July. To facilitate the potential calling of a Double Dissolution Election – which would have to be done by 11 May – Turnbull has also brought forward this year’s Federal Budget by a week, to the first Tuesday in May. Although the restoration of the ABCC is being used as a potential trigger to call an early election, the election will be fought on economic issues and taxation.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET