PUBLIC OPINION POLLS – AUSTRALIA

‘Honest Government’ and ‘Managing the Economy’ the biggest issues in Higgins, Indi, Mayo & Menzies

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 21-Jun-16

A Snap SMS Roy Morgan ‘issues’ survey has found that ‘Honest Government’ (30 per cent) and ‘Managing the Economy’ (24 per cent) are regarded as the key issues for electors in the four key seats of Higgins, Indi, Mayo and Menzies two weeks before the 2016 Federal Election. The electorates’ ranking of issues today are very different than those found by a Roy Morgan ‘issues’ survey conducted over the 30 months since the last Federal Election in September 2013. Over the period before the Federal Election was called the main issues in the electorates were ‘Keeping day-to-day living costs down’ (31 per cent), ‘Improving health services and hospitals’ (27 per cent), ‘Managing the economy’ (23 per cent) and ‘Improving education’ (20 per cent). Electors were shown a list of issues and asked: "Which three issues are most important to you".

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, NICK XENOPHON TEAM

Melbourne’s Batman set to turn Green at Federal Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 20-Jun-16

Roy Morgan’s 2016 seat-by-seat analysis of the Greens’ 20 best performing electorates at the 2013 Federal Election shows that the Greens will win the Inner Melbourne electorate of Batman from the incumbent David Feeney (Australian Labor Party) and the Greens’ one sitting Member, Adam Bandt, will retain his seat of Melbourne. Roy Morgan interviewed 6,283 Australian electors aged 18+ across the 20 electorates between January and 11-12 June 2016. Of the doubtful Labor seats it appears the Victorian seat of Wills has been saved following Labor’s preference swapping deal with the Liberal Party. In a seat being targeted by the Greens – the electorate of Grayndler in Sydney held by Labor’s Anthony Albanese – voting is similar to the 2013 election. His primary vote was in the high 40s in 2013 and the Greens were outpolled by the Liberals. Albanese is likely to retain his seat. In Melbourne Ports in 2013, Labor’s Michael Danby was outvoted by the Liberals but retained the seat because of Greens preferences. A switch in primary votes between Labor and the Greens could see the seat fall to the Greens, although Labor (33 per cent) retains a significant primary vote lead over the Greens (26 per cent) in Melbourne Ports.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Election now too close to call: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%. Minor Parties ‘won’ last night’s Leaders’ debate.

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 30-May-16

A multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention has found that support for Australia’s ruling Liberal-National Coalition on a two-party preferred basis has risen by 1.5 per cent to 49 per cent. The poll, which was carried out on the weekends of 21-22 and 28-29 May 2016, also shows that the Coalition’s primary vote has risen by one to 37.5 per cent, while the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen by 2.5 points to 102. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan notes that support for the minor parties is at a massive 30 per cent (up 8.9 per cent from the 2013 Federal Election), and support for the minor parties will only rise after the uninspiring Leader’s debate. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull did not explain how the unemployed and under-employed (18.1 per cent, or 2.322 million) will get jobs and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten gave no indication on how a Labor Government would create more private sector jobs by massive increases in public sector spending. However, Turnbull and Shorten still have time to present believable policies which tackle Australia’s booming "cash economy" and reduce real unemployment and under-employment.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, PALMER UNITED PARTY, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, FAMILY FIRST PARTY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Turnbull is winning despite polls

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 24-May-16

Strategists for both the Liberal-National Coalition and the Australian Labor Party agree that the outcome of the federal election on 2 July 2016 remains too close to call. Although most public opinion polls suggest that Labor will win the election, analysis shows that the Coalition would in fact win if the election were held now, as the swing to Labor has not been sufficient in the seats it needs to win in order to take office. The Coalition won the 2013 election with 53.5 per cent of the vote on a two-party preferred basis.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, IPSOS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, REACHTEL PTY LTD, NEWSPOLL, LABOUR PARTY (GREAT BRITAIN), LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Economic Issues the key to the Federal Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 20-May-16

A special Roy Morgan telephone survey, which was carried out on 4-5 May 2016, has found that 42 per cent of Australians aged 14+ regard Economic and Financial Issues as the most important set of problems facing the nation. This has increased by four per cent since October 2015. The survey also shows that 13 per cent of Australians rate Religion/Immigration/Human Rights Issues as the biggest problems facing the country (down three per cent). Meanwhile, 25 per cent of Australians identified Environmental Issues as the biggest problems facing the world (up four per cent).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Morgan Poll finds: ALP grabs election winning lead after first week of the campaign – ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 16-May-16

The ALP 52.5% (up 1.5%) has an election-winning two-party preferred lead over the L-NP 47.5% (down 1.5%) after the first week of official campaigning. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull called the Federal Election just over a week ago and today’s Morgan Poll shows the first week has been won by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. The ALP increased support strongly in Western Australia ALP 54% (up 5%) cf. L-NP 46% (down 5%) and Tasmania ALP 57% (up 5%) cf. L-NP 43% (down 5%) after the first week and there were also smaller swings to the ALP in Victoria and Queensland. However, there is still a long way to go in the Federal Election campaign and the massive vote (30.5%) for the minor parties shows the minor parties will definitely hold the balance of power in the Senate and led by the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) could also control the balance of power in the House of Representatives. The strong performance of the minor parties in today’s Morgan Poll shows that neither Turnbull nor Shorten has successfully articulated clear policies and a plan that minor party supporters will vote for.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY, PALMER UNITED PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Turnbull supported as Liberal Leader by 41% (down 23%) while Plibersek (22%) and Albanese (20%) still well ahead of Shorten 14% (up 5%) for ALP

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 6-May-16

A special telephone Morgan Poll, which was carried out on 4-5 May 2016, has found that 41 per cent of Australian electors prefer Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal Party Leader, while 24 per cent prefer Deputy Leader Julie Bishop and seven per cent prefer former Prime Minister Tony Abbott. Meanwhile, 22 per cent of electors prefer Deputy Opposition Leader Tanya Plibersek as Australian Labor Party Leader, ahead of Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese (20 per cent) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (14 per cent). Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says Labor’s best chance of a surprise victory in the upcoming Federal Election may be a last-minute leadership switch to Plibersek, as Labor did in 1983 when Bob Hawke replaced Bill Hayden as party Leader on the day Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser called an early Federal Election. Voting Intention telephone Morgan Poll conducted after Budget released Friday 6, 2016 – LNP 51% ALP 49%.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Turnbull 57% (but down 19%) still preferred Australian PM cf. Shorten 24% (up 10%) after Federal Budget handed down

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 6-May-16

A special telephone Morgan Poll, which was carried out on 4-5 May 2016, has found that 57 per cent of Australian electors rate Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull as the "Better PM"’. This is 19 per cent lower than a telephone Morgan Poll in October 2015. In contrast, 24 per cent of electors rate Opposition Leader Bill Shorten as the "Better PM", an increase of 10 per cent. Meanwhile, the number of electors who approve of Turnbull’s handling of his job as PM has fallen by 23 per cent to 43 per cent, and the proportion of electors who approve of Shorten’s handling of his job as Opposition Leader has risen by nine per cent to 34 per cent. Voting Intention telephone Morgan Poll conducted after Budget released Friday 6, 2016 – LNP 51% ALP 49%.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

ALP in front but Election too close to call: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%; Roy Morgan Government Confidence falls to 98 – lowest since Turnbull became PM.

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 2-May-16

A multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention has found that support for Australia’s ruling Liberal-National Coalition on a two-party preferred basis has risen by one per cent to 51 per cent. The poll, which was carried out on the weekends of 23-24 April and 30 April-1 May 2016, also shows that the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen by 0.5 to 40 per cent per cent, while the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen by one point to 98. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says the looming Federal Election means tomorrow’s Federal Budget is the Turnbull Government’s best chance to shape the narrative and lay out the ground on which this year’s Federal Election will be fought. The Government has clearly gone into "election-mode" already with the announcement last week of a $50 billion defence spending commitment to build 12 new Shortfin Barracuda submarines in South Australia – although under contract to French company DCNS.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, DIRECTION DES CONSTRUCTION NAVALES

Morgan Poll, the ABCC and banking industry regulation

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 18-Apr-16

Despite Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull receiving good publicity surrounding last week’s visit to China, today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP 50% (down 2.5%) dead-locked with the ALP 50% (up 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after Opposition Leader Bill Shorten called for a Royal Commission into the Banking & Finance industry – an idea which found widespread public support. The next three weeks leading into the Federal Budget will play an important role in determining whether the Turnbull Government can show leadership and live up to its image as the better economic managers. Malcolm Turnbull needs to convince Australian electors on "why" the construction industry needs to be subjected to additional regulation and the ABCC legislation must be passed; and why the banks are already sufficiently controlled by Government regulation (APRA, ASIC and the RBA). If not the ALP will continue to undermine the Government’s narrative and present itself as a credible Government in waiting.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA