PUBLIC OPINION POLLS – VICTORIA

Victorian State Voting Intention: One Nation and L-NP Coalition set to win key seats of Bass, Hastings, Morwell and Pakenham

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Oct-26

A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll of 283 electors in four key seats in Eastern Victoria – Bass, Hastings, Morwell and Pakenham – shows that One Nation and the L-NP Coalition are set to win all four seats at next month’s state election. Bass, Hastings, and Pakenham are currently held by the ALP Government, and Morwell is held by the Nationals. The Liberal Party is expected win the seat of Bass, but One Nation is in prime position to win the seats of Hastings, Morwell, and Pakenham. The contest between the parties in outer suburban and regional areas – in which One Nation is performing strongly – will be key to determining the result of the election and whether there will be a majority or minority government. In many electorates the party finishing third is crucial to determining which of the top two parties go on to win the seat. The strong performance of One Nation in key regional seats like Hastings, Morwell, and Pakenham suggests the party can win many seats in regional and rural areas even if their state-wide primary vote falls below that of the Coalition and ALP.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, ONE NATION PARTY

Victorian State Voting Intention: Victoria’s Upper House is evenly split between L-NP/One Nation (18 seats) and ALP/Greens (18 seats) with four seats undecided

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Oct-26

The race to secure a majority of seats in Victoria’s Upper House is evenly poised with the L-NP Coalition/One Nation set to secure 18 seats, level with the ALP/Greens (18 seats); the remaining four seats are undecided. This special Roy Morgan survey was conducted over the three months from July to September, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,845 electors and an average of around 360 electors in each of the state’s eight Upper House regions. This interviewing period included the resignation of former Premier Jacinta Allan on 28 July, the swearing in of Ben Carroll as the new Premier on the same day, One Nation’s announcement of Warren Pickering as its Victorian leader on 3 August, and revelations about Pickering’s past. This is a closer result than an earlier SMS Roy Morgan Poll conducted in early August, which showed the L-NP Coalition and One Nation securing a majority of 21 seats in Victoria’s Upper House. The changed result is driven by an improved performance from the Greens in recent months.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED,{STORE}MORGAN POLL,{STORE}AUSTRALIAN GREENS,{STORE}AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY,{STORE}LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA,{STORE}ONE NATION PARTY

Victorian State Voting Intention: Greens on track to retain Inner Melbourne electorates of Brunswick, Melbourne and Richmond

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Sep-26

There has been much speculation about whether the Greens will be able to hold the three Inner Melbourne electorates of Brunswick, Melbourne and Richmond at this year’s Victorian State Election on 28 November. Special Roy Morgan analysis of State voting trends in these seats shows that the Greens’ State Vote is holding up at an average of 41% in these electorates, clearly ahead of the ALP on 35%. Support for the Liberals is at just 14%, while only 2% of electors support One Nation, and 1% support a Teal Independent. Another 7% support Other Parties or other Independents, according to interviewing with 643 electors in the three electorates in the 12 months to August 2026. It is important to note that there has been no sign of a swing to One Nation in these seats in the last few months.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, ONE NATION PARTY

Coalition and One Nation to win narrow majority in Victoria’s upper house, new Roy Morgan poll finds

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Original article by Patrick Hannaford
News24 – Page: Online : 19-Aug-26

A new SMS Roy Morgan poll shows that the Victorian government would lose six of its 15 seats in the state’s 40-seat upper house at the election in November. The Greens’ representation in the upper house is projected to fall from four seats to just two. The poll also shows that the Coalition would be unable to reach an upper house majority in its own right at the election, with the Liberal and National parties projected to win a combined 11 seats. One Nation is in turn projected to win 10 seats, which would give the Coalition a narrow two-seat majority with One Nation’s support. Meanwhile, legislation to abolish group voting tickets passed the upper house last week, which will result in the number of minor and macro parties falling dramatically; they will also no longer be able to dictate the flow of preferences.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, ONE NATION PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Significant distrust for Jacinta Allan based on corruption allegations related to the CFMEU, ‘Big Build’, and financial mismanagement foreshadowed her resignation

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jul-26

Prior to former Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan’s resignation yesterday, she faced months of leadership speculation and was beset by allegations of corruption related to the CFMEU, the State’s contentious ‘Big Build’ project, and widespread perceptions of financial mismanagement which came to a head this week. Almost one-in-ten Victorians, 8.8%, nominated former Premier Jacinta Allan as someone they distrusted and only 1.5% of Victorians said they trusted former Premier Jacinta Allan before she resigned as leader – a disastrous Net Distrust result of -7.3 for Allan. In contrast, Opposition Leader Jess Wilson has a Net Trust result of +6.1, a far more positive result than any other Victorian political figure. Wilson was trusted by 7.6% of Victorians, and only 1.5% of respondents said they distrusted Wilson. The leading reason mentioned by those who distrusted former Premier Jacinta Allan is ‘Corruption and CFMEU/ Big Build Issues’ (45% of distrusters), just ahead of ‘Financial mismanagement’ (42%). ‘Lies and dishonesty’ were mentioned by a third (33%) of distrusters, almost a quarter said that Allan was ‘Bad for Victoria’, and 15% claimed that Allan was pursuing ‘Self-interest over public good’, according to a special Roy Morgan SMS Poll with 1,854 Victorians aged 18+ conducted from 20-22 July 2026.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

Support for the Andrews Government up since the Victorian Election; Pesutto’s handling of Moira Deeming had a negative impact on his job approval as leader

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-May-23

A Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll shows that support for the ALP Government in Victoria has increased to 61.5% (up 6.5% points since the 2022 state election) on a two-party preferred basis; support for the Liberal-National Coalition is on 38.5% (down 6.5% points). Primary vote support for the ALP has increased by 5.3% points to 42% since the election, while support for the L-NP Coalition is down 6% points to 28.5%. Support for the Greens is up 1% point to 12.5%, while support for other minor parties and independents attracts 17% of the vote (down 0.3% points). Meanwhile, Premier Daniel Andrews has a large lead over Opposition leader John Pesutto as the preferred Premier in the first head-to-head poll Roy Morgan has conducted between the two leaders. Now 64% of electors say Andrews would make the ‘Better Premier’, compared to only 36% who say Pesutto. Now 52.5% (down 5% points since November) of Victorian electors approve of the way Andrews is handling his job, while 47.5% (up 5% points) disapprove. In contrast, a majority of 53.5% of Victorian electors disapprove of the job Pesutto is doing, and only 46.5% approve. This Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll was conducted from May 17-22, 2023, with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,095 Victorian electors aged 18+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

Andrews’ secret Covid polling revealed

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Original article by Damon Johnston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 8-Mar-23

Victoria’s Department of Premier & Cabinet has belatedly released nearly 200 pages of documents and emails pertaining to research on the public’s attitude to COVID-19 lockdowns. The polling was undertaken by QDOS Research, which is owned by Labor strategist John Armitage. The government had frequently reiterated that its pandemic response was shaped by health advice, but the documents also show that it asked QDOS to undertake intensive online surveys and focus groups to gauge Victorians’ reactions to pandemic restrictions, as well as the performance of Premier Daniel Andrews during the state’s marathon 112-day lockdown. The government had sought for two years to block requests for access to the documents via freedom of information laws.

CORPORATES
VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET, QDOS RESEARCH

ALP Government of Daniel Andrews set to win with a reduced majority as support for L-NP grows – but will the trend continue?

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Nov-22

A special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll shows that the Victorian ALP on 55% (down 2% points since early November) has an election-winning lead over the L-NP Coalition on 45% (up 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. The Poll shows a swing of 2.3% points away from the ALP since the 2018 Victorian Election in which the ALP on 57.3% defeated the L-NP on 42.7% (a near record margin of 14.6% points). Primary vote support for the two major parties shows the ALP now at 38% (down 4.9% points from the 2018 Election) ahead of the L-NP on 32.5% (down 2.7% points). Support for the Greens is at 12.5% (up 1.8% points) while total support for ‘Other parties and independents’ is now at 17% (up 5.8% points). There are many seats on tight margins that will be closely contested at the election. If the Roy Morgan Poll result of a uniform swing of 2.3% points away from the ALP to the Liberal-National coalition is the outcome this would lead to five or six seats being lost to the Liberal Party. However, even if the Liberal Party does pick up five or six seats from the ALP Government they may lose three or four seats to a ‘Teal Independent’ candidate elsewhere. This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,195 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted from Tuesday November 22 to Wednesday November 23.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

ALP lead over Coalition in Victoria narrows since October and is back to 2018 Election result as minor parties surge: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Nov-22

A special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll shows that the ALP has retained a large election-winning lead over the Liberal-National Coalition in Victoria. The ALP is now on 57% (down 3.5% points since campaigning began) on a two-party preferred basis, well ahead of the L-NP on 43% (up 3.5% points). The two-party preferred results of this week’s Snap SMS Poll are almost identical to the results from the 2018 Victorian Election in which the ALP on 57.3% defeated the L-NP on 42.7% – a margin of 14.6% points. However, comparing the primary voting results from this Snap SMS Poll to the 2018 Victorian Election shows a large move to minor parties and independents – the same thing Roy Morgan saw at this year’s Federal Election. Primary vote support for the two major parties shows the ALP now at 40% (down 2.9% points from the 2018 Victorian Election) ahead of the L-NP on 29% (down 6.2% points). Support for the Greens is at 11.5% (up 0.8% points) while total support for ‘Other parties and independents’ is now at 19.5% (up 8.3% points). Among the minor parties support for so-called ‘Teal Independents’ is now at 4.5% while there is 1% support for Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, 0.5% support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party and 13.5% support other minor parties and independents. This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,030 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted from Wednesday November 9 to Thursday November 10.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, JUSTICE PARTY, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY

ALP increases its large election-winning lead over the Liberal-National Coalition in Victoria in September: ALP 60% cf. L-NP 40%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Oct-22

A multi-mode Roy Morgan Poll shows that the ALP has increased its election-winning lead over the Liberal-National Coalition in Victoria. The ALP is now on 60% (up 2% points since August) on a two-party preferred basis, well ahead of the L-NP on 40% (down 2% points) less than two months before the State Election. If a State Election were held today the ALP would win easily. The ALP’s primary vote is now 42% (up 5.5% points since August) and has now moved even further ahead of the L-NP on 28% (down 1% point). Despite the increase in support for the ALP, support for both major parties has dropped since the 2018 State Election. Meanwhile, support for the minor parties is up significantly since 2018, mirroring the trend seen at the recent Federal Election when 34.1% of Victorians voted for a minor party. Overall, nearly a third of Victorians (30%) say they will vote for a minor party or independent in the State Election in November. The Greens attract the most support from these voters at 14.5% (up 0.5% points since August 2022) and a further 15.5% is spread between an array of minor parties and independents. This Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,379 Victorian electors aged 18+ during the month of September.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS