REAL ESTATE – AUSTRALIA – RESIDENTIAL

Housing bust, lower wages hit retail sales

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 6-Feb-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales fell by 0.4 per cent in December, while sales grew by just 0.1 per cent in the December quarter. The figures also show that Western Australia is the only state that did not experience a decline in retail sales during December. Gareth Aird of the Commonwealth Bank says consumer spending is being affected by the downturn in the housing market. He notes that this is particular evident in New South Wales, where house prices have fallen the most and retail sales were down 1.1 per cent in the December quarter.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Apartment approvals hit four-year low

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 5-Feb-19

Official figures show that just 53,590 units in apartment towers of at least four storeys were approved in 2018, which is about 12 per cent lower than 2017. The number of approvals for stand-alone dwellings fell slightly, to 119,668. Overall, a total of 212,316 apartments, houses and townhouses were approved in 2018, which is the lowest level in four years. JLL has forecast that just 16,000 apartments will be completed across Australia in 2019.

CORPORATES
JONES LANG LASALLE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Banks, rules to blame for house prices

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Original article by Michael Bleby, Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 1-Feb-19

Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics claims that both the banks and regulators are to blame for the current decline in house prices. He says that regulators were too slow to realise that record low interest rates were causing the housing market to overheat, while the banks suddenly went from being too generous with their credit to being too stingy. Figures released by the Reserve Bank on 31 January show that lending to owner-occupier borrowers grew by just 6.5 per cent in 2018, the weakest annual rate since 2014.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Housing faces year of downturn

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Original article by Turi Condon
The Australian – Page: 17 : 25-Jan-19

National Australia Bank now expects dwelling prices in Sydney and Melbourne to fall by 15 per cent from peak to trough. NAB’s latest survey of property industry professionals shows that respondents generally expect New South Wales and Victoria to incur the biggest fall in housing prices over the next several years, although prices are also tipped to fall or remain flat outside of the two largest capitals. NAB’s separate survey of consumers shows that they are more upbeat about the outlook for the housing market than property professionals.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

Prices of big city houses to fall 25pc

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Original article by Melissa Yeo
The Australian – Page: 26 : 24-Jan-19

Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says residential property prices in Melbourne and Sydney could fall by up to 25 per cent from peak to trough. Oliver had previously flagged a potential fall of up to 20 per cent, and he has warned that the downturn in the housing market could impact on Australia’s economic growth. Oliver also expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points in August and November, although he says weak economic data could prompt it to move sooner.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DEMOGRAPHIA

The great Aussie dream severely unaffordable

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Original article by Ben Wilmot
The Australian – Page: 17 : 23-Jan-19

Demographia’s latest International Housing Affordability survey shows that residential property in Australia’s five largest capital cities remains expensive, relative to income. Sydney now ranks third behind Hong Kong and Vancouver among the least affordable housing markets of the 91 that were surveyed; Sydney’s median house multiple is 11.7, ahead of Melbourne with a median multiple of 9.7. Gladstone and Rockhampton are now the most affordable housing markets in Australia, with median multiples of 3.2 and 3.9 respectively.

CORPORATES
DEMOGRAPHIA

Approvals for new apartments slump

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 10-Jan-19

New figures highlight the downturn in Australia’s residential construction market. Just 5,921 units, townhouses and semi-detached dwellings were approved in November 2018, which is 18.4 per cent lower than in October. In contrast, some 12,823 dwellings were approved during November 2017. There was a 9.1 per cent decline in approvals for detached dwellings in November, which is the lowest monthly level since July 2013.

CORPORATES
HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Labor creating a rental famine

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Original article by Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 2 : 7-Jan-19

Liberal senator Dean Smith contends that young Australians would be most affected by Labor’s proposed changes to negative gearing. With 2.1 million renters aged between 20 and 34 in Australia, Smith says Labor’s plans represent an opportunity for the federal government to portray itself as a better option for voters in this age group. Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen says he would be happy to have a debate on whether Labor or the Coalition has the best housing policies for young people.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

Apartment prices to come under pressure

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 7-Jan-19

BIS Oxford Economics estimates that 17,000 additional high-rise apartments will hit the Melbourne market in 2019, compared with 13,500 in 2018. Likewise, some 26,300 apartments in Sydney are expected to be completed in 2019, down from 28,000 in the previous year. The large number of apartments coming onto the market is expected to put further pressure on prices, while Angie Zigomanis of BIS notes that there may also be an increase in vacancy rates and a corresponding fall in rents.

CORPORATES
BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WORLD CLASS LAND (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, ASPIAL CORPORATION LIMITED

Chinese look to exit unit projects

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Original article by Lisa Allen, Ben Wilmot
The Australian – Page: 15 & 16 : 4-Jan-19

Many Chinese property developers are seeking to divest residential development sites on Australia’s east coast due to factors such as difficulty in securing financing and a decline in demand for apartments. Matrix founder Andrew Antonas says many sites that have scope for 300 to 400 apartments and are located within 15-20km of the Sydney CBD have been put on the market. However, he notes that smaller sites with a capacity of up to 200 apartments and the same distance from the CBD are being retained by developers. Mark Wizel of CBRE expects more Chinese developers to shift their focus to investing in local shopping centres.

CORPORATES
MATRIX PROPERTY GROUP PTY LTD, CBRE PTY LTD, SHIMAO PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED, DALIAN WANDA GROUP COMPANY LIMITED, HNA GROUP, HPG, HAILIANG, YUHU GROUP (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, CHARTER HALL GROUP – ASX CHC