REAL ESTATE – AUSTRALIA – RESIDENTIAL

House prices could jump 5pc: McGrath

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Original article by Campbell Kwan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 & 34 : 20-Feb-24

Real estate group McGrath Limited has posted a 2023-24 interim statutory profit of $7.5m and underlying EBITDA of $4.8m. Meanwhile, CEO John McGrath says the prospect of interest rate cuts later in 2024 may boost prices at the lower end of Australia’s housing market by up to five per cent. He adds that interest rate rises have seen house prices in this segment of the market fall by around five per cent over the last 12 months. However, McGrath says prospective buyers of homes priced below $1m are likely to remain cautious about returning to the property market until interest rate cuts actually occur.

CORPORATES
McGRATH LIMITED – ASX MEA

Cooling inflation, stable rates may encourage buyers

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 & 30 : 7-Feb-24

Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged on Tuesday could prompt an upturn in house buying activity. He notes that house prices remain below their peaks in Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart, Darwin and the ACT; Lawless says that some buyers may capitalise on this to buy into the market before interest rates fall. Judo Bank’s chief economic adviser Warren Hogan says the rental housing market is still a major concern, while SQM Research MD Louis Christopher warns that rising rents could put upward pressure on inflation.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, JUDO BANK PTY LTD, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

Fall in detached housing approvals puts Labor’s 1.2 million target at risk: economists

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Original article by Olivia Ireland
The Age – Page: Online : 10-Jan-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that dwelling approvals rose by 1.6 per cent to 14,529 in November. However, building approvals for detached houses fell 1.7 per cent month-on-month, to 8,506. The Housing Industry Association’s chief economist Tim Reardon expects approvals for detached homes to keep falling during the first half of 2024; he adds that this will make it hard to achieve the federal government’s revised target of building 1.2 million new homes over five years. This equates to 240,000 per year, but Master Builders Australia expects about 170,000 new home to be built in 2023-24.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED

House prices could dip before next rate cut

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 30-Nov-23

Domain Holdings is upbeat about Australia’s residential market, forecasting that house prices will rise by seven per cent nationally in 2024. Dwelling prices in Sydney are tipped to rise by up to nine per cent, while prices in Melbourne are expected to gain four per cent. Nicola Powell from Domain says house prices could fall in early 2024, particularly if there is another interest rate rise and inflation remains high. Powell adds that dwelling prices could rebound if there is an interest rate cut later in the year.

CORPORATES
DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA

No housing crash, just a slowdown say economists

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 8-Nov-23

PEXA’s chief economist Julie Toth says the latest increase in the cash rate is likely to result in a pause in house price growth, as was the case at the start of the current monetary policy tightening cycle. However, Toth does not expect house prices to fall, adding that the rate rise is likely to trigger a new wave of mortgage refinancing. Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says the 13th interest rate rise since May 2022 is likely to further dampen consumer sentiment; he notes that consumer confidence has been at "very pessimistic" levels for nearly 18 months and has a close correlation with housing activity.

CORPORATES
PEXA GROUP LIMITED – ASX PXA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Developers scoff at 1.2m homes target

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 13-Sep-23

Housing Minister Julie Collins has told a property summit that the federal government’s target of building 1.2 million new homes in five years is "ambitious but achievable". However, Western Australian property developer Nigel Satterley says that at best about 600,000 to 650,000 dwellings are likely to be completed within this time-frame, citing a labour supply shortage. Melbourne-based developer Tim Gurner agrees that the target will be difficult to achieve, noting that high costs and poor planning laws are also a challenge for the sector.

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First home deposit sizes soar as more parents step up

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Original article by John Collett
The Age – Page: Online : 30-Aug-23

A report from the National Housing Finance & Investment Corporation and the Commonwealth Bank highlights the growing cost of entering the housing market. It shows that average gross household income for first-home buyers with the CBA was about $117,000 in early 2023, while the average purchase price was almost $629,000. Meanwhile, the average deposit for first-home buyers was $159,000; this compares with just $108,400 at the start of 2020. SQM Research MD Louis Christopher says the figures suggest that many people are getting financial help from their parents to buy their first home. This in turn means that people who cannot rely on the so-called ‘bank of mum and dad’ are being locked out of the housing market.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL HOUSING FINANCE AND INVESTMENT CORPORATION – ASX NFI, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

Homes in 33pc of Sydney now twice the price

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 23-Aug-23

Data from CoreLogic shows that the prices of homes in 12.1 per cent of suburbs across Australia have doubled over the last decade. However, the value of units has increased by a similar amount in just two per cent of suburbs nationwide. CoreLogic’s figures also show that house prices in 163 suburbs in Sydney have more than doubled in the last decade, led by South Turramurra with a gain of 151 per cent in the last 10 years. Meanwhile, Melbourne house prices have doubled in the Mornington Peninsula suburbs of Dromana, Frankston North and Sorrento.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

New home approvals fall to weakest in four years

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 2-Aug-23

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that there was a 7.7 per cent decline in new housing approvals in June. A total of 175,790 new dwellings were approved in the year to 30 June, with approvals for detached dwellings falling by 13.8 per cent and attached homes down by 10.5 per cent. Maree Kilroy of Oxford Economics Australia says demand and supply for housing are moving in opposite directions, which will result in a sizeable dwelling deficiency over the coming years. Separate data shows that new home loan commitments fell by 22.1 per cent to $298.4bn in 2022-23.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, OXFORD ECONOMICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Housing market on knife edge despite rate pause

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 & 32 : 5-Jul-23

SQM Research MD Louis Christopher expects sentiment in the housing market to remain cautious in the near-term, despite the Reserve Bank’s latest interest rate pause. He is of the view that sentiment will not improve until there is a longer pause. Shane Oliver from AMP Capital anticipates that any upturn in housing market activity arising from the second interest rate pause since April is likely to be temporary. He adds that further interest rate increases could put renewed downward pressure on house prices.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED