REAL ESTATE – PRICES – AUSTRALIA

Morgan Stanley fears 15pc house price fall

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Original article by Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 21 : 12-Oct-18

Investment bank Morgan Stanley has warned that residential property prices in Australia could potentially decline by 10-15 per cent. It had previously forecast a fall of just 5-10 per cent in house prices. Morgan Stanley says a pullback of the magnitude it now forecasts would have a flow-on effect across the economy, including a rise in the official unemployment rate to eight per cent. The firm also says the earnings of companies with exposure to the residential property sector would be hit.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

IMF warns on debt and high house prices

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 11-Oct-18

The International Monetary Fund’s latest global financial stability report notes that Australia is one of several advanced economies where the rising cost of house prices is a concern. The IMF also expressed concern that the household debt-to-GDP ratio is rising in Australia and a number of other countries. Australia’s household debt-to-GDP ratio is currently around 122 per cent, while the nation’s household debt-to-income ratio is close to 200 per cent.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Top-end markets bear the brunt

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Original article by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 2-Oct-18

CoreLogic’s latest data indicate that there is greater resilience in the more affordable segments of Australia’s residential property market. House prices in the bottom quarter of the Melbourne market rose by 4.1 per cent year-on-year, while they fell by just 3.3 per cent in Sydney’s bottom quartile. However, prices in Sydney and Melbourne’s top quartiles fell by 8.4 per cent and 6.7 per cent respectively. Tim Lawless of Corelogic says demand is becoming focused on the more affordable housing segments as banks become more cautious about borrowers taking on too much debt.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RAY WHITE REAL ESTATE

ME boss tips two years of house price weakness

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 25-Sep-18

ME Bank has reported a statutory net profit of $89.1m, which is 43.9 per cent higher than previously, while its underlying earnings rose 13 per cent to $96.5m. CEO Jamie McPhee does not expect a significant fall in house prices, although he says prices are likely to ease slightly over the next two years. McPhee adds that the revelations of the banking royal commission do not appear to have had much impact on ME Bank’s customer numbers and deposit inflows.

CORPORATES
ME BANK, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Sydney to lead subsidence in house prices, says Moody’s

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 37 : 18-Sep-18

Moody’s Analytics has forecast a 1.6 per cent fall in housing prices across Australia in 2018. The firm expects house prices in Sydney to decline by 5.1 per cent overall, although some suburbs will record larger declines while others will record growth. House prices in Melbourne are forecast to rise by 0.3 per cent in 2018, with Brisbane tipped to record growth of 1.5 per cent and prices in Perth to fall by 1.9 per cent. The forecasts are based on historical data from CoreLogic’s Hedonic Home Value Index.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S ANALYTICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MORRELL AND KOREN BUYERS’ ADVOCATES

Big city house prices to drop 5pc: Steinert

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 17-Sep-18

Stockland CEO Mark Steinert has forecast that house prices in Sydney and Melbourne will fall by around five per cent over the next 12 months. However, the expected decline is likely to be primarily restricted to the higher end of the detached housing market, a view shared by Mirvac CEO Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz. Data from CoreLogic shows that the prices of detached houses in Sydney fell by 7.1 per cent in the year to August, compared with a 2.7 per cent decline in Melbourne.

CORPORATES
STOCKLAND – ASX SGP, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, GPT GROUP – ASX GPT, CBUS PROPERTY PTY LTD, VICINITY CENTRES – ASX VCX, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Sydney property prices fall the fastest in nine years: CoreLogic

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 4-Sep-18

CoreLogic reported on 3 September that Sydney house prices had fallen by 5.6 per cent over the year to August. This represented the biggest decline of any capital city for that period, while it was the biggest fall recorded for Sydney house prices since early 2009. Sydney was the location of nine of the 10 worst performing sub-regions over the year to August, with Ryde the worst hit. Melbourne house prices fell by two per cent in the three months to August, making it the worst performing capital city over that period.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Mortgage rates are going up as house prices are falling and that’s unusual à and a worry

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Original article by Stephen Letts
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 2-Sep-18

House prices are falling at the same time as mortgages are increasing, and this does not happen often in Australia; the last time it occurred was in 2008. Mortgage rates were higher at that time than they are now, while unemployment was lower back in 2008. As is currently the case, the main reason why banks increased their mortgage rates back in 2008 was due to funding costs, rather than because of Reserve Bank action. Paul Dales from Capital Economics says the three conditions that could see Australia face a recession or financial crisis in the next few years are currently all present: higher mortgages; falling house prices; and a tightening of credit.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, BANKWEST, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA

Labor win a housing game changer

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 23-Aug-18

Brett Gillespie of Ellerston Capital says financial markets are not giving much consideration to the possibility that Labor will win the next federal election. He notes that a Labor government would have a major impact on the property market, given that Labor proposes to restrict negative gearing to new homes. Gillespie adds that a Labor win would also have implications for the sharemarket and the broader economy.

CORPORATES
ELLERSTON CAPITAL PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA, McGRATH LIMITED – ASX MEA, BORAL LIMITED – ASX BLD, CSR LIMITED – ASX CSR, FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED – ASX FBU, ADELAIDE BRIGHTON LIMITED – ASX ABC, DULUXGROUP LIMITED – ASX DLX, GWA GROUP LIMITED – ASX GWA, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, STOCKLAND – ASX SGP, GENWORTH MORTGAGE INSURANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX GMA, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Slowdown in east coast housing gathers speed

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 26-Jul-18

Data from Domain Holdings shows that Australia’s median house price fell by one per cent to $802,077 in the June 2018 quarter. The median house price in Sydney eased 1.4 per cent in the quarter, to $1,144,217, with the median unit price down 0.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter. Sydney’s median house price was 4.5 per cent lower in the year to June, with the median unit price down 3.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the median house price in Melbourne fell by 1.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter, although it rose 0.5 per cent year-on-year.

CORPORATES
DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, NEW SOUTH WALES. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET