REAL ESTATE – PRICES – AUSTRALIA

Housing faces year of downturn

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Original article by Turi Condon
The Australian – Page: 17 : 25-Jan-19

National Australia Bank now expects dwelling prices in Sydney and Melbourne to fall by 15 per cent from peak to trough. NAB’s latest survey of property industry professionals shows that respondents generally expect New South Wales and Victoria to incur the biggest fall in housing prices over the next several years, although prices are also tipped to fall or remain flat outside of the two largest capitals. NAB’s separate survey of consumers shows that they are more upbeat about the outlook for the housing market than property professionals.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

Prices of big city houses to fall 25pc

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Original article by Melissa Yeo
The Australian – Page: 26 : 24-Jan-19

Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says residential property prices in Melbourne and Sydney could fall by up to 25 per cent from peak to trough. Oliver had previously flagged a potential fall of up to 20 per cent, and he has warned that the downturn in the housing market could impact on Australia’s economic growth. Oliver also expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points in August and November, although he says weak economic data could prompt it to move sooner.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DEMOGRAPHIA

The great Aussie dream severely unaffordable

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Original article by Ben Wilmot
The Australian – Page: 17 : 23-Jan-19

Demographia’s latest International Housing Affordability survey shows that residential property in Australia’s five largest capital cities remains expensive, relative to income. Sydney now ranks third behind Hong Kong and Vancouver among the least affordable housing markets of the 91 that were surveyed; Sydney’s median house multiple is 11.7, ahead of Melbourne with a median multiple of 9.7. Gladstone and Rockhampton are now the most affordable housing markets in Australia, with median multiples of 3.2 and 3.9 respectively.

CORPORATES
DEMOGRAPHIA

Open loan books, banks told

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Jan-19

The national dwelling price fell by 4.8 per cent in 2018, according to data from CoreLogic, with prices in Sydney and Melbourne falling by 8.9 per cent and seven per cent respectively. Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says the nation’s banks must continue to provide home buyers with access to credit, adding that Labor’s proposed negative gearing reforms would deepen the downturn in the housing market. Meanwhile, Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects house prices in Sydney and Melbourne to fall by another 10 per cent in 2019.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, FINDER.COM.AU, BANKWEST, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, BANK OF MELBOURNE LIMITED, BANK OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Leading researcher pours cold water over link between property prices and the economy

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Original article by
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 12-Dec-18

Australian house prices have fallen 9.5 per cent from their peak in July 2017, and some economists have forecast a peak-to-trough decline of up to 15 per cent. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine discusses the outlook for residential property prices on Radio National. She says the recent downturn in house prices is primarily due to stricter lending criteria rather than a decline in demand for housing. Levine also discusses issues such as mortgage stress and whether a fall in house prices has an impact on consumer confidence.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Value of housing takes a $70bn hit

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Original article by Turi Condon, Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 2 : 12-Dec-18

Official data shows that the mean value of an Australian home fell by about $9,700 in the September quarter, to $675,000. The total value of the 10.1 million dwellings in Australia declined by $70.1bn in the quarter, to $6.8trn. The Australian Bureau of Statistics data also shows that dwelling prices in Melbourne fell by 2.6 per cent in the quarter and by 1.5 per cent year-on-year, while Sydney recorded falls of 1.9 per cent and 4.4 per cent respectively.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ERNST AND YOUNG

Affordability issue persists in spite of falls

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Original article by Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 7-Dec-18

The proportion of income needed to meet mortgage repayments fell by 0.8 per cent Australia-wide in the September quarter, according to the latest Adelaide Bank/REIA Housing Affordability Report. However, despite falling house prices, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, housing affordability is down when compared to 2017. UBS has suggested that a looming credit crunch and more stringent lending conditions could restrict future buyers to loans that are no more than six times their household income; this means housing affordability may not improve even if house prices continue to fall.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, STOCKLAND – ASX SGP, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, THE REAL ESTATE INSTITUTE OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, ADELAIDE BANK

House prices to dive 10pc more: Ellerston

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Original article by Yolanda Redrup
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 5-Dec-18

Brett Gillespie of Ellerston Capital is bearish about the outlook for Australia’s residential property market, forecasting that house prices will eventually fall by an additional 10 per cent. He adds that this could occur much more rapidly if Labor wins the 2019 federal election and implements its proposed changes to the negative gearing regime. Gillespie says a 4-5 per cent fall in house prices would be necessary to 4 to 5 per cent to offset the impact of the negative gearing reforms.

CORPORATES
ELLERSTON CAPITAL PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Housing drop near worst on record

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Original article by Turi Condon
The Australian – Page: 3 : 30-Nov-18

Data from CoreLogic shows that residential property prices in Sydney have fallen by 1.3 per cent so far in November, the biggest monthly decline in 14 years. The firm now expects Sydney house prices to fall by 15 per cent from their peak. Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says the outlook for the housing market is unlikely to improve in the near-term, although he does not anticipate an increase in distressed sales. Meanwhile, Housing Industry Association data shows that sales of new homes fell by 10 per cent year-on-year in the three months to October.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Perth tipped to top house price growth

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Original article by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 29-Nov-18

Domain economist Trent Wiltshire is upbeat about the residential property market in Perth, forecasting a five per cent increase in house prices during 2019. He cites factors such as a growing economy, a rising population, the development of new mines in the state and stronger commodity prices. Domain also forecasts that house prices in Melbourne will decline by one per cent in 2019 and Sydney prices will remain flat; prices in both cities are then tipped to rise by four per cent in 2020.

CORPORATES
DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX QBE, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY