REAL ESTATE – PRICES – AUSTRALIA

Warning as housing stock piles up

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Original article by Ben Wilmot
The Australian – Page: 25 : 17-May-19

Data from CoreLogic shows that based on current rates of sales, housing supply across Australia’s capital cities is currently 5.3 months, up from 3.9 months a year ago. Meanwhile, Macquarie Equities says Reserve Bank data suggests that 2.5-3.5 per cent of house buyers with bank-issued mortgage loans are in negative equity following the downturn in the housing market. RiskWise Property Research CEO Doron Peleg says Labor’s proposed changes to the negative gearing and capital gains tax regimes would make residential property investment less attractive.

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MACQUARIE EQUITIES LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RISKWISE PROPERTY RESEARCH, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, GRATTAN INSTITUTE, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, STARR PARTNERS PTY LTD, MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED

Don’t worry if house prices fall, says Bowen

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Original article by Turi Condon, Ben Packham, Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 16-May-19

Property Council of Australia president Stephen Conry says the housing market is "fragile", and it is not the right time for Labor’s proposed changes to the negative gearing regime. Real Estate Institute of Australia president Adrian Kelly warns that the prices of existing properties will fall if Labor implements its reforms, while the Housing Industry Association’s chief economist Tim Reardon says housing rents will rise. Meanwhile, shadow treasurer Chris Bowen has downplayed concerns that homeowners may find themselves in negative equity, arguing that they will only incur a loss if they sell.

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PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, THE REAL ESTATE INSTITUTE OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

House values expected to fall sharply

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Original article by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 10-Apr-19

Moody’s Analytics forecasts that house prices will fall by 9.3 per cent in Sydney during 2019, and apartment prices will decline by 5.9 per cent. The ratings agency expects the prices of houses and apartments in Melbourne to fall by 11.4 per cent and five per cent respectively. Moody’s economist Katrina Ell says factors such as stricter lending conditions in the wake of the Hayne royal commission and Labor’s proposed negative gearing reforms could weigh on the housing market. Moody’s expects the cash rate to remain on hold until mid-2021, although it says further housing market weakness could see a rate cut before the end of 2019.

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MOODY’S ANALYTICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

IMF warns on housing slide

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 8-Apr-19

The International Monetary Fund is expected to downgrade its forecast for the Australian economy in its latest World Economic Outlook. Thomas Helbling, the IMF’s lead economist for Australia, warns that the nation’s housing market downturn has been more severe than anticipated and it has occured sooner than expected. He says the property market downturn will need to be offset via government policies aimed at stimulating the economy, such as increased investment in infrastructure. Helbling has also raised the possibility of interest rate cuts.

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

SQM urges phasing in of gearing reforms

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 & 38 : 21-Mar-19

SQM Research MD Louis Christopher says Labor should implement its proposed negative gearing and capital gains tax reforms gradually if it wins the federal election, to avoid a "shock" to the broader economy. Research by SQM suggests that Labor’s reforms could potentially result in a 12 per cent decline in residential property prices over three years, while rents could rise sharply as supply is reduced. SQM adds that two official interest rate cuts by January 2020 would see housing prices fall by just 4-8 over three years, as well as lower rent increases.

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SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Rate cuts, not supply, the key to house prices

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 12-Mar-19

Reserve Bank of Australia analysts Trent Saunders and Peter Tulip have concluded that monetary policy has the biggest impact on house prices and the level of construction activity. They argue that historically low interest rates have been the major driver of rising house prices in recent years, while factors such as construction costs and population growth have had a smaller impact. In contrast, RBA governor Philip Lowe recently suggested that housing supply has been the major influence on prices.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Gillespie predicts RBA will trim rates as house prices fall

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Original article by Natasha Gillezeau
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 21-Feb-19

Brett Gillespie of Ellerston Capital estimates that there is a 30 per chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce official interest rates in April. In contrast, financial markets are currently pricing in a six per cent chance of a rate cut. Gillespie expects a further downturn in house prices in the near-term, which may prompt the central bank to ease monetary policy prior to the federal election. The RBA adopted a more dovish tone on interest rates at its February meeting, after signalling in December that rates were more likely to go up than down.

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ELLERSTON CAPITAL PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Reality bites for million-dollar club

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Original article by Mackenzie Scott, Remy Varga
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 15-Feb-19

New data shows that just 649 suburbs across Australia now boast a median house price of $1m, compared with 741 in January 2018. There are now 366 suburbs in New South Wales where the median price exceeds $1m, while there are 129 such suburbs in Victoria. Nerida Conisbee, the chief economist at realestate.com.au, says price rises in recent years were unsustainable and some suburbs simply did not belong in the million-dollar price bracket.

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REALESTATE.COM.AU, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Housing bust, lower wages hit retail sales

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 6-Feb-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales fell by 0.4 per cent in December, while sales grew by just 0.1 per cent in the December quarter. The figures also show that Western Australia is the only state that did not experience a decline in retail sales during December. Gareth Aird of the Commonwealth Bank says consumer spending is being affected by the downturn in the housing market. He notes that this is particular evident in New South Wales, where house prices have fallen the most and retail sales were down 1.1 per cent in the December quarter.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks, rules to blame for house prices

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Original article by Michael Bleby, Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 1-Feb-19

Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics claims that both the banks and regulators are to blame for the current decline in house prices. He says that regulators were too slow to realise that record low interest rates were causing the housing market to overheat, while the banks suddenly went from being too generous with their credit to being too stingy. Figures released by the Reserve Bank on 31 January show that lending to owner-occupier borrowers grew by just 6.5 per cent in 2018, the weakest annual rate since 2014.

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DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC