REAL ESTATE – PRICES – AUSTRALIA

House prices could fall 20pc: ANZ

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Original article by Turi Condon
The Australian – Page: 27 : 23-Nov-18

The ANZ Bank is bearish about the outlook for the residential property market in Melbourne and Sydney, forecasting that house prices will fall by 15-20 per cent from their peak. ANZ expects increased lending restrictions to weigh on the property market, while other potential headwinds include the federal election due in 2019 and the final report of the financial services royal commission. ANZ also expects official interest rates to remain on hold until 2020.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE SECURITIES PTY LTD

Negative gearing changes would create distortions

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Original article by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 13-Nov-18

RiskWise CEO Doron Peleg contends that Labor’s proposed negative gearing reforms would create a two-tiered property market. Economist Stephen Koukoulas believes that concerns about Labor’s proposals are unwarranted, as any fall in house prices that might result will make it easier for first-home buyers to enter the market. Tyrone Hodge of JLL thinks the proposed changes could have a negative impact on housing supply.

CORPORATES
RISKWISE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, JONES LANG LASALLE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Australia most exposed to a downturn

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 31-Oct-18

Morgan Stanley has warned that Australia is at greater risk of an economic downturn than other Group of 10 nations due to rising household debt. The household debt-to-income ratio in Australia has risen to nearly 200 per cent amid the surge in house prices in recent years. Meanwhile, although house prices have fallen over the last 12 months, the Reserve Bank’s assistant governor Michele Bullock says a regulatory crackdown on lending to investors has not resulted in a significant downturn in the property market.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Alarm bells in housing as losses widen

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Original article by Elizabeth Redman
The Australian – Page: 17 & 21 : 30-Oct-18

UBS has reported that the percentage of capital city apartments that are being resold at a loss when compared to their previous purchase price has risen to 14.3 per cent, the highest since the 1990s. UBS also notes one in three homes sold off the plan in Sydney have a lower valuation at settlement when compared to the original sale price. Meanwhile, Fragrance Group has abandoned plans for an apartment project at 555 Collins Street in Melbourne. The site has been sold to a Charter Hall fund with the expectation that it will now be used for an office tower.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, FRAGRANCE GROUP LIMITED, CHARTER HALL GROUP – ASX CHC, MOODY’S ASIA-PACIFIC LIMITED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

House prices about 30pc inflated with a loan cap

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Original article by Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 38 : 16-Oct-18

Modelling by LF Economics suggests that house prices in Sydney and Melbourne could be "overinflated" by up to 30 per cent if mortgage loans were capped at 30 per cent of household income. Other capital city house prices are not as inflated under LF Economics’ modelling, which used data from CoreLogic and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The modelling is line with other forecasts that Sydney and Melbourne house prices are set to continue to decline.

CORPORATES
LF ECONOMICS, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BRONTE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, VARIANT PERCEPTION

Morgan Stanley fears 15pc house price fall

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Original article by Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 21 : 12-Oct-18

Investment bank Morgan Stanley has warned that residential property prices in Australia could potentially decline by 10-15 per cent. It had previously forecast a fall of just 5-10 per cent in house prices. Morgan Stanley says a pullback of the magnitude it now forecasts would have a flow-on effect across the economy, including a rise in the official unemployment rate to eight per cent. The firm also says the earnings of companies with exposure to the residential property sector would be hit.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

IMF warns on debt and high house prices

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 11-Oct-18

The International Monetary Fund’s latest global financial stability report notes that Australia is one of several advanced economies where the rising cost of house prices is a concern. The IMF also expressed concern that the household debt-to-GDP ratio is rising in Australia and a number of other countries. Australia’s household debt-to-GDP ratio is currently around 122 per cent, while the nation’s household debt-to-income ratio is close to 200 per cent.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Top-end markets bear the brunt

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Original article by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 2-Oct-18

CoreLogic’s latest data indicate that there is greater resilience in the more affordable segments of Australia’s residential property market. House prices in the bottom quarter of the Melbourne market rose by 4.1 per cent year-on-year, while they fell by just 3.3 per cent in Sydney’s bottom quartile. However, prices in Sydney and Melbourne’s top quartiles fell by 8.4 per cent and 6.7 per cent respectively. Tim Lawless of Corelogic says demand is becoming focused on the more affordable housing segments as banks become more cautious about borrowers taking on too much debt.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RAY WHITE REAL ESTATE

ME boss tips two years of house price weakness

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 25-Sep-18

ME Bank has reported a statutory net profit of $89.1m, which is 43.9 per cent higher than previously, while its underlying earnings rose 13 per cent to $96.5m. CEO Jamie McPhee does not expect a significant fall in house prices, although he says prices are likely to ease slightly over the next two years. McPhee adds that the revelations of the banking royal commission do not appear to have had much impact on ME Bank’s customer numbers and deposit inflows.

CORPORATES
ME BANK, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Sydney to lead subsidence in house prices, says Moody’s

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 37 : 18-Sep-18

Moody’s Analytics has forecast a 1.6 per cent fall in housing prices across Australia in 2018. The firm expects house prices in Sydney to decline by 5.1 per cent overall, although some suburbs will record larger declines while others will record growth. House prices in Melbourne are forecast to rise by 0.3 per cent in 2018, with Brisbane tipped to record growth of 1.5 per cent and prices in Perth to fall by 1.9 per cent. The forecasts are based on historical data from CoreLogic’s Hedonic Home Value Index.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S ANALYTICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MORRELL AND KOREN BUYERS’ ADVOCATES