REAL ESTATE – PRICES – AUSTRALIA

Rate pause to spur buyers back into market

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 5-Apr-23

SQM Research MD Louis Christopher says the firm believes that the cash rate has peaked following the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave it on hold at 3.6 per cent on Tuesday. He adds that the widely-anticipated rate pause could prompt buyers to return to the housing market, including renters and investors. Christopher adds that house prices could rise by 3-7 per cent nationwide in 2023 if the cash rate remains on hold. Tim Lawless of CoreLogic agrees that the rate pause could encourage vendors and buyers to return to the market.

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SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Fall in house prices stalls but reprieve may be short-lived

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Original article by Rachel Clun, Shane Wright
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 1-Mar-23

Data from CoreLogic shows that home values fell by just 0.14 per cent nationwide in February, which is the lowest decline since the Reserve Bank of Australia began to increase the cash rate in May 2022. Sydney was the only capital city to record a rise in house values in February, up 0.3 per cent; however, house values fell by less than 0.5 per cent in all other capitals except Hobart, which recorded a decline of 1.4 per cent. Tim Lawless of CoreLogic warns that the decline in house values may accelerate as the full impact of nine consecutive interest rate rises takes effect.

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Property tipped to drop 10pc

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Original article by Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 6 : 7-Feb-23

Cameron Kusher of PropTrack says the firm expects dwelling prices to fall by up to 10 per cent nationally in 2023. He says house prices in the largest capital cities are likely to fall the most, with a downturn of 8-11 per cent in Sydney and 7-10 per cent in Melbourne. Kusher adds that house prices in regional areas are also likely to fall, given that they have recorded stronger than capital cities and demand for homes in regional areas is slowing. PropTrack has factored in two interest rate rises in 2023, and Kusher says a rate cut late in the year is a "very real possibility".

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PROPTRACK PTY LTD

Home values drop in 80pc of suburbs

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 19-Jan-23

Data from CoreLogic shows that dwelling values fell in more than eight out of 10 suburbs across Australia in the last three months of 2022. Some 98 per cent of Sydney suburbs recorded a fall in house prices in the December quarter, down from 100 per cent in the September quarter; the value of units fell in 93.2 per cent of suburbs in the harbour city, compared with 95.7 per cent of suburbs in the September quarter. Likewise, house prices fell in 98.4 per cent of Melbourne suburbs (also down from 100 per cent in the three months to September), and unit values fell in 78.8 per cent of suburbs (down from 88.4 per cent in the previous quarter).

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

House prices plunge 8.4pc from peak

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 10-Jan-23

Data from CoreLogic shows that house prices have fallen by 8.4 per cent nationally since peaking in May. Eliza Owen of CoreLogic says the sharp decline is primarily due to the aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle, noting that interest rates have not increased so quickly in more than three decades. She anticipates a further market downturn in coming months, given that more interest rate rises are likely, and suggests that a double-digit fall in national house prices is possible. Sydney has recorded a 13 per cent fall in house prices, while prices in Melbourne are down 8.6 per cent peak-to-trough.

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Most economists got house prices wrong last year

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 4-Jan-23

Data from CoreLogic shows that national dwelling values fell by 5.3 per cent in 2022, while combined capital cities dwelling values were down 6.9 per cent. Leading economists failed to predict the downturn in the housing market; the majority had forecast at the start of the year that there would be at least modest growth in house prices during 2022. Westpac’s Bill Evans had forecast eight per cent growth, while the Commonwealth Bank had anticipated seven per cent growth. National Australia Bank’s chief economist Alan Oster had forecast that house prices would end the year flat.

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD,WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC,COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA,NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Brisbane house prices set to fall 15pc: ME Bank

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 28-Oct-22

ME Bank now expects dwelling prices across Australia’s capital cities to fall by a larger margin than it had forecast in June. House prices in most capital cities have fallen sharply since the Reserve Bank started tightening monetary policy in May. ME Bank’s chief economist Peter Munckton says Brisbane house prices in particular have fallen more quickly than expected in recent months. ME Bank expects house prices in the Queensland capital to fall by 15 per cent from peak to trough, compared with its June forecast of an eight per cent decline.

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ME BANK, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Inner-city suburbs fall to pre-COVID levels

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 : 24-Aug-22

CoreLogic has identified 11 inner suburbs of Sydney in which the median house price is now lower than prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The list is headed by Darlinghurst and Surry Hills, where the median price has fallen by 6.7 per cent and 6.5 per cent respectively since March 2020. The median house price in 46 inner suburbs of Melbourne has also fallen since the onset of the pandemic. This includes a 14.2 per cent decline in South Melbourne and a 12.3 per cent fall in St Kilda. Eliza Owen of CoreLogic says prices in more suburbs are likely to fall below pre-COVID levels as the housing market downturn gathers pace.

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

House prices going south at record rate

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Original article by Nick Lenaghan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 & 32 : 16-Jun-22

Investment bank Jarden is bearish about the outlook for Australia’s housing market. The firm says house prices could fall by 15-20 per cent from peak to trough, including a decline of around five per cent by the end of 2022. Chief economist Carlos Cacho says the prospect of higher interest rates will accelerate the downturn in the housing market, and he warns that Melbourne and Sydney are likely to experience an even large decline in dwelling prices. Cacho also anticipants a sharp decline in building approvals.

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JARDEN AND COMPANY

Big cities tipped to lead fall in prices

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Original article by Ben Wilmot
The Australian – Page: 3 : 25-Nov-21

SQM Research has forecast that growth in residential property prices will slow in the first quarter of 2022 before falling in the second half of the year. SQM Research MD Louis Christopher says there are signs that the national housing market is nearing its peak, adding that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority could further intervene in the mortgage market as soon as December. SQM Research has also forecast that Sydney and Melbourne will record the biggest fall in house prices.

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SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD