Property slump has another year: S&P

Original article by Richard Gluyas
The Australian – Page: Online : 4-Jun-19

Credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s says factors such as the Coalition’s election win and a likely official interest rate cut in June will bolster the residential property market. However, the firm does not expect houses prices in Melbourne and Sydney to rebound for another 6-12 months, while George Tharenou of UBS forecasts that house prices will stabilise later in 2019. New data from CoreLogic shows that house prices fell by 0.4 per cent in May, and by 7.3 per cent year-on-year.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Housing recovery on cards, says HSBC

Original article by Ben Wilmot
The Australian – Page: 23 : 29-May-19

Paul Bloxham of HSBC notes that Australian house prices have fallen by an average of eight per cent since the current downturn began. Prices in Sydney have fallen by 15 per cent, while prices in Melbourne are down 11 per cent. However, Bloxham says house prices are likely to stabilise during the second half of 2019 before improving in 2020. He says factors that should boost the market include the prospect of official interest rate cuts and the re-elected Coalition government’s proposed first-home buyers loan scheme.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rate cut to end house price slide

Original article by Matthew Cranston, Ingrid Fuary-Wagner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 5 : 28-May-19

AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver now expects the housing market to bottom in the second half of 2019, rather than in 2020. He says factors such as the prospect of an official interest rate cut and the federal government’s First Home Loan Deposit Scheme will contribute to the end of the correction in house prices. Meanwhile, economist Stephen Koukoulas forecasts that house prices will bottom in the September quarter before rising in the final three months of 2019. Paul Bloxham of HSBC notes that the housing market correction has been orderly, with low levels of distressed sales and mortgage arrears.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Agents feel post-election pick-up

Original article by Michael Bleby, Tim Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 24-May-19

AMP Capital’s chief economist Shane Oliver is predicting that Sydney and Melbourne house prices will not fall as far as previously expected, and that prices will bottom out by the end of 2019, rather than during 2020. Oliver cites the federal election result, which put an end to uncertainty regarding negative gearing and capital gains tax, as one reason for his change of forecast. Other factors that suggest a pickup in housing sentiment include expectations that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates soon and the Coalition government’s plan to assist first-home buyers.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Bouris calling with a warning about Labor

Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 8 : 17-May-19

Wizard Home Loans founder Mark Bouris has attracted scrutiny from the Australian Electoral Commission for targeting voters via a robo-calling campaign. Bouris, who is not a candidate in the federal election, used automated phone calling technology to contact 200,000 households in marginal electorates. He warned that Labor’s proposed negative gearing and capital gains tax reforms would see house prices fall. Bouris has stressed that he was not acting on behalf of any political party.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN ELECTORAL COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, WIZARD HOME LOANS, YELLOW BRICK ROAD HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX YBR, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Warning as housing stock piles up

Original article by Ben Wilmot
The Australian – Page: 25 : 17-May-19

Data from CoreLogic shows that based on current rates of sales, housing supply across Australia’s capital cities is currently 5.3 months, up from 3.9 months a year ago. Meanwhile, Macquarie Equities says Reserve Bank data suggests that 2.5-3.5 per cent of house buyers with bank-issued mortgage loans are in negative equity following the downturn in the housing market. RiskWise Property Research CEO Doron Peleg says Labor’s proposed changes to the negative gearing and capital gains tax regimes would make residential property investment less attractive.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MACQUARIE EQUITIES LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RISKWISE PROPERTY RESEARCH, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, GRATTAN INSTITUTE, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, STARR PARTNERS PTY LTD, MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED

Don’t worry if house prices fall, says Bowen

Original article by Turi Condon, Ben Packham, Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 16-May-19

Property Council of Australia president Stephen Conry says the housing market is "fragile", and it is not the right time for Labor’s proposed changes to the negative gearing regime. Real Estate Institute of Australia president Adrian Kelly warns that the prices of existing properties will fall if Labor implements its reforms, while the Housing Industry Association’s chief economist Tim Reardon says housing rents will rise. Meanwhile, shadow treasurer Chris Bowen has downplayed concerns that homeowners may find themselves in negative equity, arguing that they will only incur a loss if they sell.

CORPORATES
PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, THE REAL ESTATE INSTITUTE OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

House values expected to fall sharply

Original article by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 10-Apr-19

Moody’s Analytics forecasts that house prices will fall by 9.3 per cent in Sydney during 2019, and apartment prices will decline by 5.9 per cent. The ratings agency expects the prices of houses and apartments in Melbourne to fall by 11.4 per cent and five per cent respectively. Moody’s economist Katrina Ell says factors such as stricter lending conditions in the wake of the Hayne royal commission and Labor’s proposed negative gearing reforms could weigh on the housing market. Moody’s expects the cash rate to remain on hold until mid-2021, although it says further housing market weakness could see a rate cut before the end of 2019.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S ANALYTICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

IMF warns on housing slide

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 8-Apr-19

The International Monetary Fund is expected to downgrade its forecast for the Australian economy in its latest World Economic Outlook. Thomas Helbling, the IMF’s lead economist for Australia, warns that the nation’s housing market downturn has been more severe than anticipated and it has occured sooner than expected. He says the property market downturn will need to be offset via government policies aimed at stimulating the economy, such as increased investment in infrastructure. Helbling has also raised the possibility of interest rate cuts.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

SQM urges phasing in of gearing reforms

Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 & 38 : 21-Mar-19

SQM Research MD Louis Christopher says Labor should implement its proposed negative gearing and capital gains tax reforms gradually if it wins the federal election, to avoid a "shock" to the broader economy. Research by SQM suggests that Labor’s reforms could potentially result in a 12 per cent decline in residential property prices over three years, while rents could rise sharply as supply is reduced. SQM adds that two official interest rate cuts by January 2020 would see housing prices fall by just 4-8 over three years, as well as lower rent increases.

CORPORATES
SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY