Macquarie tips Australian shares to beat Wall St in 2018

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 7-Dec-17

Jason Todd of Macquarie Group is upbeat about the outlook for the Australian sharemarket in 2018, forecasting that it will end the calendar year at 6,500 points. Todd expects the Australian bourse to outperform the US market in total return and local currency terms in 2018, following a stronger performance by Wall Street in 2017. However, he expects the S&P/ASX 200 to finish 2017 at 5,875 points, compared with around the 5,950-point level at present.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ADELAIDE BRIGHTON LIMITED – ASX ABC, DOWNER EDI LIMITED – ASX DOW, BORAL LIMITED – ASX BLD, JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC – ASX JHX, INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED – ASX IPL, SEEK LEARNING PTY LTD

ASX may rise on GDP, iron ore and Trump tax

Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 4-Dec-17

Futures pricing suggests that the Australian sharemarket may lose ground when trading resumes on 4 December. However, a number of factors bode well for the domestic bourse in coming days, including a rebound in the prices of key commodities such as iron ore and expectations that official data will show an improvement in the nation’s economic growth. Investor confidence may also be bolstered by the US Senate’s passing of tax cuts, while investors will also be awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last board meeting for 2017.

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STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BANK OF MONTREAL, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

ASX seven years behind the world

Original article by Sally Patten
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 9-Nov-17

Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s MD Matthew Koch has downplayed the significance of the S&P/ASX 200’s first close above 6,000 points in almost a decade. He argues that key overseas indices passed their pre-global financial crisis highs between 3-4 years ago. Morgan Stanley’s Christopher Bell adds that the Australian sharemarket’s limited earnings growth means the benchmark index is unlikely to reach its record high of 6,828.7 points for some time. Koch and his colleagues manage some $A1.5bn on behalf of 55 clients.

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STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, FTSE 100 INDEX, EURO STOXX 50 INDEX, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD

Surge to 6000 puts GFC to rest

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 27 : 8-Nov-17

A number of factors contributed to the S&P/ASX 200’s rise above the 6,000-point level on 7 November 2017, including the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the cash rate on hold, a rise in the iron ore price and a new record high for the S&P 500. The S&P/ASX 200 has taken nearly 10 years to reach 6,000 points again. Tony Brennan of Citigroup still expects it to reach 6,250 by mid-2018, while Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse forecasts that it will rise to 6,500 in 2018.

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STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, LEHMAN BROTHERS INCORPORATED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Institutional investors buy back into rally

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 31-Oct-17

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index has gained 4.3 per cent so far in October, putting the local bourse on track for its best month since July 2016. Tony Brennan of Citigroup still expects the benchmark index to reach the 6,000-point level by the end of 2017. However, the market may face a number of headwinds. The S&P/ASX 200 Bank Index has risen by 3.5 per cent in October, but November is traditionally a bearish month for the sector. On the other hand, the resources sector is benefiting from the continued strength of commodity prices, while the growing prospect of tax cuts in the US should boost the earnings of companies with significant exposure to the US.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 BANKS INDEX

The most common question on Wall Street: when will rally end?

Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 27-Oct-17

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index has gained four per cent so far in 2017, and it has not ended a month in positive territory since April. Meanwhile, the major US indices have finished in the black every month except for March, and the S&P 500 has gained nearly 15 per cent in the year to date. Wall Street’s sustained rally has prompted speculation as to when it will end, but there are strong indications that the current bull run will extend beyond seven months.

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STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX, CLIME INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX CIW, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, EPFR GLOBAL

ASX’s $100b rally could be far from over, analysts predict

Original article by Jessica Sier, Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 27 : 19-Oct-17

The Australian sharemarket had been range-bound since May, but a rally in the last nine trading sessions has increased its capitalisation by about $A100bn. JP Morgan’s Jason Steed says the near-term outlook for the local bourse will depend to a large extent on financial and mining stocks, which dominate the market. However, Steed adds that investors are looking for greater political certainty, particularly with regard to issues such as energy policy and regulation of the banking sector.

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STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, TOKYO STOCK PRICE INDEX, DEUTSCHER AKTIEN INDEX

ASX stalls as world hits top gear

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 30 : 13-Oct-17

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index has risen by 2.3 per cent so far in 2017, including a 2.5 per cent gain in the last five trading sessions. However, it is still 15 per cent below its peak, and its performance significantly lags that of its international peers. AMP Capital’s Nader Naeimi says overseas markets offer better opportunities for investors at present, while James Pomeroy of HSBC forecasts that emerging markets will become a major driver of global economic growth.

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STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, HSBC BANK PLC, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, STOXX EUROPE 600 INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX, EURO STOXX 50 INDEX, MSCI EMERGING MARKETS INDEX, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS

Global shares still look best for capital growth

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 10-Oct-17

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has gained 1.3 per cent so far in 2017, compared with an 8.2 per cent gain for the MSCI All Country World index in Australian dollar terms. Most analysts expect global equities to continue to outperform Australian stocks in the near-term, although Richard Coppleson of Bell Potter remains upbeat about the outlook for the local market. He notes that investors are likely to reinvest some of the $A23.7bn worth of dividends that have been paid in recent weeks.

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STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MSCI ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Get ready for a lost decade for shares

Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 5-Oct-17

The key US sharemarket indices are trading at record highs, while Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 is now trading slightly below its level at the start of 2017. At 5,652 points, the local bourse remains well below its record high of 6,828 on 1 November 2007. Independent investment analyst Boris Pogos notes that there have been a number of other periods during which the Australian sharemarket has delivered a negative return over 10 years or more, and these trends suggest that the all-time record high may not be breached until at least 2020.

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STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX, RUSSELL 2000 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX RHC, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD