UNEMPLOYMENT – AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan real unemployment down in February, now 9.4% (1.253m) down 0.6% from Feb 2016

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Mar-17

A Roy Morgan Research survey has found that Australia’s real unemployment rate was 9.4 per cent in February 2017, while the under-employment rate was 8.5 per cent. A total of 2.390 million Australians (17.9% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed, which is down 90,000 (or 0.9%) from February 2016. Some 1.253 million Australians are now unemployed (down 66,000 in the last 12 months), while 1,137,000 are under-employed (down 24,000 in 12 months). Meanwhile, the total Australian workforce was 13,348,000 (up 174,000 since February 2016) and total employment was 12,095,000 (up 240,000 in a year). The official unemployment rate was 5.7 per cent in January 2017.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Over 12 million Australians have jobs for the first time – including over 8 million full-time jobs, but real unemployment now 9.7% (1.295m)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Feb-17

A Roy Morgan Research survey has found that Australia’s real unemployment rate was 9.7 per cent in January 2017. Some 1.295 million Australians are now unemployed (down 51,000 in a year), while the number of people who are under-employed has fallen by 122,000 in the last 12 months to 1,107,000 (8.3 per cent of the workforce). Meanwhile, the total workforce has risen to 13,414,000 (up 316,000 since January 2016), and total employment has risen above 12 million for the first time, to 12,120,000 (up 368,000). The number of Australians who are employed full-time has also risen above 8 million for the first time, to 8,085,000 (up 221,000 since January 2016). The official unemployment rate was 5.8 per cent in December 2016. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says US President Donald Trump has consistently outlined the problems with the way unemployment is measured in the US. Trump’s insistence that the BLS severely under-estimates US unemployment is one of the primary reasons he was elected President. The Australian Government faces the same problem Trump has called attention to. The changing nature of the workforce in Australia, the US, and for that matter around the world demands that Governments look seriously at amending the official measures of employment and unemployment that policymakers rely on to make decisions that impact millions of their citizens.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION

Unemployment measurement is "absurd" says Australian historian Geoffrey Blainey

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jan-17

Renowned Australian historian Geoffrey Blainey has correctly identified the real problem facing the Australian economy in 2017 – the absurd measurement of unemployment means the true level of real unemployment and under-employment is under-reported. As Blainey correctly pointed out in an interview on the ABC 7.30 Report last Friday, someone who works for only one hour a week being classified as employed is "absurd". Using this definition of unemployment allows the Government to rely on inflated figures of real employment provided by the ABS each month, while simultaneously down-playing the real levels of (much higher) real unemployment and under-employment. The latest Roy Morgan December employment estimates show 20% (2.584 million) of Australians are either unemployed or under-employed. Nearly half a million people (445,000), that Roy Morgan considers unemployed the ABS consider either employed (280,000) or not in the workforce (165,000).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Australian journalists finally waking up to Australia’s real problem of massive under-employment

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Dec-16

The past week has seen a procession of journalists finally mentioning Australia’s largest problem that’s never talked about – the massive level of under-employment throughout the Australian economy. Today Jessica Irvine in The Age asks the simple question – does working one hour a week sound like a good job? Well of course not, and Jessica’s column highlights the problem of under-employment – working a few hours but wanting to work far more hours, or indeed, work full-time. Jessica’s column follows articles by her Age colleague Ross Gittins, and columnists in The Australian including Judith Sloan and Graham Richardson in the past week who have all highlighted the rising level of part-time work at the expense of full-time work and alongside that comes an increasing level of under-employment – now at 8.4% (1.1 million Australians) in November according to the latest Roy Morgan employment estimates. The Turnbull Government’s recent announcements on plans to crack-down on the ‘cash economy’ are also long overdue. However the real challenge facing Federal, State and Local Governments is to ensure employment, or more specifically the eradication of unemployment and under employment, is top of the agenda. This means a ‘line by line’ analysis of policy and legislation of all kinds to remove everything that is a barrier to employment, or is contributing to unemployment and underemployment.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Cash upbeat as job figures defy gloom

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 4 : 16-Dec-16

Australia’s official unemployment rate rose from 5.6 per cent in October 2016 to 5.7 per cent in November. It has increased by 0.7 per cent in the last 12 months, although the Budget had forecast a 1.75 per cent increase. The figures show that some 39,300 full-time jobs were created in November, but the number of full-time positions fell by more than 45,000 overall in the first 11 months of the year. The youth unemployment rate has risen from 12.5 per cent to 14.6 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Gary Morgan comment on Roy Morgan real unemployment unchanged at 9.2% in November

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Dec-16

Australia’s continuing high level of real unemployment and under-employment – now above 2 million for a 14th straight month – has persistently indicated the weakness in the broader Australian economy, which has now been confirmed by Australia’s first quarter of negative GDP growth since the March quarter 2011. The ABS announced last week that Australian GDP shrunk 0.5% in the September quarter 2016. The election of Donald Trump in the US last month proves that politicians who take the concerns of their people seriously will find electoral success. Trump consistently asserted during his campaign that real unemployment in the US was far higher than the figures quoted by the official Bureau of Labor Statistics – over 20%, and perhaps even over 30%. The Turnbull Government must learn the lesson provided by Trump’s election without delay.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Australian real unemployment steady at 9.2% (1.199m Australians); Under-employment down 1.5% to 8.4% (1.1m)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Dec-16

In November 2016 a total of 2.299 million Australians, 17.6% of the workforce, were either unemployed (1,199,000) or under-employed (1,100,000). This is down 237,000 (down 2%) from November 2015. Unemployment is comparable to a year ago with 1.199 million Australians now unemployed (up 13,000 in a year but steady at 9.2% due to overall growth in the workforce). These real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS figure for October 2016 (5.6%). In November, the Australian workforce increased to 13,046,000 (up 92,000 since November 2015), and total employment increased to 11,847,000 (up 79,000). Full-time employment is now 7,950,000 – up 374,000 from a year ago (7,576,000 in November 2015). In contrast, part-time employment has decreased by 295,000 to 3,897,000 over the past year (an average of just under 25,000 per month). The lower part-time employment contributed to the fall in under-employment; now 8.4% of Australians 1,100,000 (down 250,000 since November 2015) are under-employed (down 2%).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Party’s over as economy turns mediocre

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 19 & 23 : 7-Dec-16

Australia’s real GDP growth is expected to have fallen by 0.2 per cent in the September 2016 quarter, with year-on-year growth likely to have slowed to about two per cent. This compares with annual GDP growth of 3.3 per cent in the year to June. Despite the relative strength of the economy and a fall in the jobless rate, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has conceded that growth in employment has slowed and underemployment has risen to a record high, at 9.3 per cent. Meanwhile, the participation rate has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Gary Morgan’s comment on Australia’s worrying State-based unemployment picture

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Dec-16

One clear political impact of the worsening employment situation is the rise of regional parties around Australia. In particular we have the rise of the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) in South Australia (three Senators and one Lower House MP), the return of One Nation – primarily in Queensland, but also strong in Western Australia and regional New South Wales (four Senators around Australia), the popularity of Senator Jacqui Lambie and the Jacqui Lambie Network in Tasmania and even the election of Senator Derryn Hinch in Victoria. To overcome the popularity of regional parties Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and the L-NP Government must concentrate more on the regional problems of high and rising unemployment and under-employment with policies prioritising job creation and a growing economy.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, ONE NATION PARTY, JACQUI LAMBIE NETWORK, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

The ‘Two-Speed’ economy returns with soaring unemployment and under-employment in Australia’s four smaller States (QLD, WA, SA & Tas)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Dec-16

Special analysis of Roy Morgan Research real employment estimates in each State over the three months to October 2016 shows that unemployment and under-employment are a growing problem in Australia’s four smallest States of Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania – all four of which now have total unemployment and under-employment above the national average. In contrast, Australia’s two largest States have clearly the healthiest labour markets and New South Wales – with total unemployment and under-employment of 15.2% (down 2.1% from a year ago) is the clear standout. In Victoria 16.0% of the workforce is now unemployed or under-employed – up 1.4% from a year ago but still well below Australia’s national average of 17.6% (up 1.0%). The end of the mining boom has clearly had a big impact on Western Australia – now at 19.6% (up 3.7%) unemployment and under-employment and Queensland 20.3% (up 3.3%), while Australia’s smallest State of Tasmania continues to have a substantial problem with total unemployment and under-employment of 22.5% (up 1.8%). The closure of several large manufacturing plants in South Australia – including the ceasing of Holden Cruze production at its Elizabeth plant in early October has clearly had an impact, and South Australia now has the highest unemployment and under-employment in the nation at 23% (up 5% in a year).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, GM HOLDEN LIMITED