In September Australian unemployment increased to 9.5% as workforce grew to a record high; but not enough new jobs created

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Oct-24

In September 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased by 87,000 to 1,510,000 (up 0.4% to 9.5% of the workforce), as more tham 100,000 people joined the workforce. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.45 million Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, down 43,000 from August. In total, 2.96 million Australians (18.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in September. However, overall employment was virtually unchanged, up 17,000 on a month ago to 14,305,000. Part-time employment increased by 32,000 to 4,933,000 while full-time employment dropped 15,000 to 9,372,000. The total workforce in September was 15,816,000 (up 105,000 from August, and up 497,000 from a year ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.5% for September is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.2% for August, but it is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

In August Australian unemployment dropped to 9.1% due to significant increase in part-time jobs

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Sep-24

In August 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell by 174,000 to 1,423,000 (down 1% to 9.1% of the workforce). Part-time employment increased by 136,000 to 4,901,000 in August, although full-time employment was virtually unchanged at 9,387,000; overall employment for the month increased by 133,000 to 14,288,000. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.5 million Australians (9.5% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, down 38,000 from July. In total, 2.92 million Australians (18.6% of the workforce, down 1.2%) were either unemployed or under-employed in August. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.1% for August is clearly more than double the ABS estimate of 4.2% for July, but it is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

In July Australian unemployment jumped to 10.1%; highest unemployment for a year since August 2023 as part-time jobs were lost in July following the Mid-Year sales

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Aug-24

In July 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased by 294,000 to 1,597,000 (up 1.8% to 10.1% of the workforce). This is the highest level of unemployment since August 2023 and was caused by a significant decline in part-time jobs during July after the end of the Mid-Year sales. Part-time employment dropped by 176,000 to 4,765,000 in July – the lowest level of part-time employment since July 2023. Although full-time employment increased marginally in July (up 24,000 to 9,390,000), overall employment for the month dropped by 152,000 to 14,155,000. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.54 million Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 132,000 from June. In total 3.13 million Australians (19.8% of the workforce, up 2.5%) were either unemployed or under-employed in July. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 10.1% is clearly more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for June, but it is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.6%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

In June Australian unemployment dropped to 8.3%; the lowest unemployment since September 2022

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jul-24

In June 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 62,000 to 1,307,000 (down 0.4% to 8.3% of the workforce). This is the lowest rate of unemployment since September 2022, although overall employment is virtually unchanged above 14.3 million. Although unemployment decreased in June as people left the workforce, under-employment increased by 65,000 to 1,403,000. Taken together, overall unemployment and under-employment in June was virtually unchanged at 2.7 million (17.3% of the workforce). Meanwhile, employment was virtually unchanged at 14,307,000 (down 3,000) in June. There was a shift to more part-time employment, with 4,941,000 Australians (up 72,000) now employed part-time; full-time employment was down 75,000 to 9,366,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.3% is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.0% for May, but is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ABS employment estimates for May followed Roy Morgan’s earlier figures showing jobs growth driving a drop in unemployment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Jun-24

The ABS employment estimates for May released this week showed Australian unemployment dropping 9,200 to 598,900 (4.0%, down 0.1%). The ABS estimate once again followed the earlier released Roy Morgan ‘Real Unemployment’ estimates which showed a decrease of 170,000 to 1,365,000 (8.7%, down 1%) – over twice as high as the latest ABS estimate. The ABS showed under-employment, increasing 17,000 to 1,008,000 (6.7%, up 0.1%) although this is still significantly lower than the latest Roy Morgan under-employment estimate of 1,338,000 (8.5%). The combined Roy Morgan ‘Real Unemployment’ and under-employment estimates show 2.7 million Australians (17.2% of the workforce) unemployed or under-employed in May – the lowest rate of total labour under-utilisation for nearly two years since July 2022 (17.1%, 2.52 million) during the last few months of pandemic restrictions.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Australian employment increases to a new record high of over 14.3 million; driving a drop in unemployment to 8.7% in May

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Jun-24

In May 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell 170,000 to 1,365,000 (down 1% to 8.7% of the workforce), as overall employment increased to a new record high above 14.3 million. In addition to the decrease in unemployment, there was also a welcome decrease in under-employment, which was down 256,000 to 1,338,000. These combined decreases mean that 2.7 million Australians (17.2% of the workforce, up 1%) were unemployed or under-employed in May – the lowest level of total labour under-utilisation since April 2022 (2.63 million). Meanwhile, employment increased by 78,000 to a new record high of 14,310,000 in May. A rise in full-time employment drove the increase (up 112,000 to a new record high of 9,441,000), while part-time employment was down 34,000 to 4,869,000.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ABS employment estimates for April followed Roy Morgan’s earlier figures showing rising unemployment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-May-24

The ABS employment estimates for April released last week showed Australian unemployment rising 30,300 to 604,200 (4.1%, up 0.2%) – the highest ABS estimate for over two years since November 2021. The ABS estimate once again followed the earlier released Roy Morgan ‘Real Unemployment’ estimates which showed an increase of 177,000 to 1,535,000 (9.7%, up 1%) – well over twice as high as the latest ABS estimate. The ABS also showed rising under-employment, increasing 20,000 to 991,000 (6.6%, up 0.1%). This followed the Roy Morgan estimates on under-employment, up 18,000 to 1,594,000 (10.1%, unchanged). The combined Roy Morgan ‘Real Unemployment’ and under-employment estimates show 3.13 million Australians (19.8% of the workforce, up 1%) unemployed or under-employed in April – the highest level of total labour under-utilisation for over three years since October 2020 (3.15 million) during the early months of the pandemic.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Warning on jobs rate if productivity stalls

Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 15-May-24

The 2024 budget papers indicate that productivity has grown for two consecutive quarters, and that it is expected to continue to pick up if economic conditions improve. However, Treasury has warned that if productivity does not improve as expected, it could lead to a rise in unemployment. Meanwhile, the budget papers have forecast that annual wages growth will decline from 4 per cent to 3.25 per cent over the next two financial years before rising to 3.5 per cent in the subsequent years of the forward estimates, while lower forecast inflation will result in real wages growth of 0.5 per cent each year over the forward estimates.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says total Australian unemployment or under-employment has increased to its highest in over three years at 3.13 million in April

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-24

The Roy Morgan employment estimates for April show total Australian unemployment or under-employment has increased 195,000 to 3,129,000 (19.8% of the workforce, up 1%). ‘Real’ unemployment increased 177,000 to 1,535,000 (9.7%) and under-employment increased 18,000 to 1,594,000 (10.1%). The increase means overall labour under-utilisation is at its highest for over three years since October 2020 (3.15 million). The labour force has experienced rapid change over the last year with a large increase in population (+717,000) – a rate almost three times higher than the average annual population growth over the last 25 years of 287,000. This population increase has been the driver of a growing workforce, up by 667,000. However, the figures show although new jobs are being created, there are not enough jobs being created to soak up the 667,000 people who joined the workforce over the last year and increasing numbers of Australians are becoming unemployed or under-employed.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian unemployment increases in April to 9.7% – overall labour under-utilisation at highest since October 2020

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-24

In April 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 177,000 to 1,535,000 (up 1% to 9.7% of the workforce) despite overall employment remaining near its all-time high at over 14.2 million. In addition to the increase in unemployment, there was also a slight increase in under-employment, up 18,000 to 1,594,000. These combined increases mean a massive 3.13 million Australians (19.8% of the workforce, up 1%) were unemployed or under-employed in April – the highest level of total labour under-utilisation for over three years since October 2020 (3.15 million) during the early months of the pandemic. In April 1,535,000 Australians were unemployed (9.7% of the workforce, up 1%), an increase of 177,000 from March driven by more people looking for both full-time and part-time work. There were 669,000 (up 74,000) looking for full-time work and 866,000 (up 103,000) looking for part-time work.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED