Risk of ‘fiscal fiasco’ if China runs off the rails

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 27-Oct-14

Deloitte Access Economics has released a new report on the potential impact on Australia of a more rapid slowing of GDP growth in China. The latter accounts for 38% of Australian exports, and if its growth rate falls to under 4% per annum Australia is likely to experience a recession. The forecasting firm warns that the Federal Government must do more to rein in the Budget deficit in light of this scenario. However Deloitte still maintains that the most likely outcome is growth in China of 7% or more, and a fall in Australia’s terms of trade of 9.2% for 2014-15 before less dramatic declines of between 1% and 2% a year in the period to 2018-19


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