Original article by Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-19

The ALP campaign launch last week with a message of unity has helped provide a ‘boost’ in ALP support with under a week to go until the Federal Election. The ALP 52% now holds an election winning lead over the L-NP 48% on a two-party preferred basis. In addition Bill Shorten’s good week came as many Australians felt sympathy for Shorten after he described the struggles his mother had endured to undertake her dream of completing a law degree. A front-page headline in Sydney’s Daily Telegraph which sought to attack Shorten for drawing on his mother’s story only served to highlight his mother’s achievements to a wider audience. Shorten also had two successful leadership debates with Prime Minister Scott Morrison including a quick-witted put-down of Morrison as a ‘classic space invader’ during the second leader’s debate and a solid performance in the third, and final, leader’s debate last Wednesday. In calculating the two-party preferred support the Roy Morgan Poll uses respondent’s stated preferences. While Greens supporters strongly preferences the ALP, other parties stated preferences are dividing fairly evenly between the ALP and L-NP and as many as one-in-four electors still haven’t made their mind up. However, most Australians believe the ALP will win the election with many polls for months showing the ALP well ahead of the Government. But will all the polls be proven wrong again like with the US Presidential Election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016? Most people believed Clinton would win and this belief was reflected by most of the American polls at the time.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS