Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Feb-23

Roy Morgan’s 2022 Christmas retail sales forecast conducted in conjunction with the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) of $66 billion seasonally adjusted for the key pre-Christmas retailing period was within 1.2% of the actual record seasonally adjusted retail sales result of $66.8 billion – the most accurate forecast since the COVID-19 pandemic struck Australia early in 2020. Even more impressive were Roy Morgan’s retail sales forecasts covering ‘Non-Food’ categories, which cover about 60% of total retail spending. Roy Morgan had predicted that total spending in ‘Non-Food’ categories would amount to $40.6 billion (up 7.8% on a year ago); the final spending across these categories came in at $40.6 billion, an exact match and also in line with the ABS December quarter CPI figures. Forecast spending in the Food category was $25.4 billion, slightly lower than the actual result of $26.2 billion. The difference in this category was heavily impacted by significant flooding events in much of eastern Australia, which led to unexpected inflationary pressures across several key food and grocery items.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS