Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Oct-24

If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’, with the Coalition on 51% (up 1.5% from a week ago) just ahead of the ALP on 49% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. This is the first time the Coalition has been in front for over a month – based on preferences being distributed by what electors tell us. However, when preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the result is reversed with the ALP on 51.5% (down 0.5% from a week ago) cf. L-NP 48.5% (up 0.5%). This tight result emphasises again how important preference flows will be in determining which major party is best placed to form government with the support of minor parties and independents after the next federal election. ALP primary vote support dropped 2% points to 30% while Coalition support was up 0.5% points at 38% – an 8% point gap between the two parties, the largest for a month. Support for the Greens was up 1% to 13.5% while One Nation was down 0.5% at 4.5%. Support for Other Parties increased 1% to 4.5% and support for Independents was unchanged at 9.5%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY