Original article by Geoff Chambers, Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-Apr-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has released new modelling on the likely impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs regime on the Australian economy. It suggests that the baseline tariff of 10 per cent and the 25 per cent tariff on steel, aluminium and automotive products would be largely neutral for inflation in Australia. Treasury’s ‘best-case’ scenario is that the nation’s real GDP will decline by 0.1 per cent in 2025 and inflation will rise by 0.2 per cent. Meanwhile, the pre-election fiscal outlook shows that the budget deficit is forecast to total $179.5bn over the next four years, while federal government debt is projected to rise to $1.2tn. The nation’s deteriorating fiscal position comes amid fears of a global recession and a $190m fall in the ASX’s market capitalisation since the tariffs were announced last week.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT