Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Jan-26

In the week of January 5-11, 2026, the first Roy Morgan Poll since the ‘Bondi Shooting’, Coalition support is at 30.5% (up 3% since the week of December 8-14, 2025) just ahead of the ALP on 30% (down 0.5%), One Nation is on 15% (down 2%), the Greens are on 13.5% (up 0.5%), and Independents/Other Parties are at 11% (down 1%). The latest Roy Morgan survey was conducted with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,676 electors in the week of January 5-11. In addition, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunged 7 points after the ‘Bondi Shooting’ in mid-December to 74 in early January. Only 19.5% (down 13.5%) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ while 45.5% (down 6.5%) say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’. On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is now on 52% (down 2.5% since the week of December 8-14, 2025) ahead of the Coalition on 48% (up 2.5%). If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a decreased majority. The Albanese Government’s two-party preferred lead in early January is the closest result between the two major parties since the Federal Election result in May 2025: ALP 55.2% cf. L-NP 44.8%, and the closest the Coalition has been for almost a year.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY