Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Mar-26

The first Roy Morgan Poll taken after the conflict in the Middle East began shows support for both the ALP down 4% to 26.5% and the Coalition down 1% to 22.5%. The Greens gained 3% to 14.5% and One Nation was up 1.5% to 23.5% – and ahead of the Coalition. 13% support Independents and Other Parties, according to interviewing conducted from March 2-8 with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,532 electors. In times of global unrest, the usual response of the electorate is to swing to the Government, although this hasn’t happened so far in the early stages of the Iran War. The rise in support for the Greens is likely because the Greens are the only major political party to take a stand against the US and Israeli strikes in the Middle East, and this support has come straight from people previously supporting the ALP. A look at the results by gender and age show the picture is complicated with the ALP losing primary support of men and women, and the Greens and One Nation gaining support of men and women. Analysis by age shows the ALP losing support in every age group, mostly to the Greens. For people aged 18-24 though, ALP support went to One Nation and Independents/Other Parties and the Greens lost support. One Nation gained support in all age groups under 65. Based on how electors said they would ‘vote’, ALP is 54.5% well ahead of Coalition 45.5%. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a clear majority under either methodology.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY