Author: roymorgansocial

News says $600m from tech giants not enough

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 15-May-20

News Corp Australasia executive chairman Michael Miller agrees with Nine Entertainment chairman Peter Costello that Facebook and Google must pay for news content. However, Miller says the amount they should pay is probably much higher than the $600m a year that Costello has suggested; he notes that former senator Nick Xenophon has proposed that digital platforms pay $1bn a year. Miller adds that getting the digital platforms’ mandatory revenue-sharing code of conduct right is the first thing to do.

CORPORATES
NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION

Cut-price footy: TV chiefs muscle up

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Original article by John Stensholt, Courtney Walsh
The Australian – Page: 3 : 15-May-20

The Australian Football League will face pressure from Seven West Media and Foxtel for a reduction in their broadcasting rights fees for the 2020 season. They are believed to be seeking a fee reduction of at least $125m, given that the AFL’s shortened season will feature just 17 home-and-away matches. Meanwhile, the broadcasters differ on the revised structure of the season. Seven will push for a large number of ‘blockbuster’ matches to be held early in the season in order to attract advertisers and boost ratings, while Foxtel wants high-profile matches to be played throughout the season.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE

ABS April Unemployment estimate doesn’t reflect reality. ABS claims 594,000 lose their jobs but only 104,000 become unemployed (?!?)

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-May-20

Yesterday the ABS released its April employment estimates. The ABS estimates that 12,419,000 Australians were employed in April, down 594,000 on March. There were sharp falls for both full-time and part-time employed. The ABS estimate Australian unemployment increased by only 104,000 to 823,000 in April (6.2% of the workforce, up 1%). Australians will be asking, how can the ABS say 594,000 have lost their jobs in April but only 104,000 become unemployed? This is because the ABS claim 490,000 people left the workforce in April. i.e. the ABS claims these people lost their jobs and weren’t then looking for work and available to start work during the reference week. These workers are unemployed – NOT out of the workforce. So the workforce size in April should match the March estimate of 66%. The real ABS unemployment estimate for April is closer to 1.35 million (9.8%) – an increase of 4.6% points. Combined with the estimated ABS under-employment of 1.82 million (13.7%) means a combined unemployment and under-employment of 3.16 million (23.5%). This is much closer to the Roy Morgan April employment estimates showing 2.16 million Australians (15.3%) were unemployed and a total of 3.48 million (24.7%) were either unemployed or under-employed.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Don’t take away job payments: employers

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Original article by Rosie Lewis
The Australian – Page: 4 : 14-May-20

Australian Industry Group CEO Innes Willox says the $130bn JobKeeper scheme must run its full course, and it should be extended beyond the current end date of 27 September if necessary. He has also cautioned against any move to reduce the amount of the wage subsidy, which is currently $1,500 per fortnight. Some Coalition MPs argue that businesses which have resumed normal operations should no longer receive the subsidy, but Council of Small Business Organisations CEO Peter Strong suggests that such businesses should instead be allowed to opt out of the scheme.

CORPORATES
THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, COUNCIL OF SMALL BUSINESS ORGANISATIONS OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED

‘Massive hit’: unemployment jump set to break ABS records

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 14-May-20

Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects labour market data to be released on 14 May will show that a record 750,000 jobs were lost in April. AMP Capital forecasts that the unemployment rate rose to 10 per cent in April, while less bearish economists anticipate a jobless rate of between eight and nine per cent. Justin Smirk of Westpac notes that the actual jobless rate is likely to be much higher, as the Australian Bureau of statistics does not consider somebody to be unemployment if they have been laid off but have a job to go back to. Meanwhile, data from the ABS shows that annual growth in wages was just 2.1 per cent in the March quarter.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

House prices crash 30pc in doomsday scenario

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Original article by James Kirby
The Australian – Page: 20 : 14-May-20

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has warned that house prices could fall by 32 per cent over the next three years if there is a prolonged economic downturn. This worst-case scenario is based on the unemployment rate exceeding nine per cent. CBA’s base case downturn scenario is for house prices to fall by 11 per cent. The bank has identified unemployment, underemployment, changes to income and house prices as the key drivers for the housing market.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Rio boss warns of volatility, nationalism

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 14-May-20

Rio Tinto CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques has warned that global commodity markets will continue to experience volatility in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, while global GDP growth will be hit. Jacques says is too soon to know whether there will be a V-shaped economic recovery. He also says the movement of people and goods will be restricted in the wake of the pandemic, while there could be a fundamental shift in global wealth distribution. Jacques noted that Rio Tinto’s mining operations will be affected by an increase in geopolitical tensions in the post-pandemic environment.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Let’s fly: state in bid to buy Virgin

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Original article by Craig Johnstone
The Australian – Page: 1 : 14-May-20

Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has criticised the Queensland government’s proposal to acquire a stake in Virgin Australia via the state-owned Queensland Investment Corporation. State Treasurer Cameron Dick has stressed the importance of having two sustainable national airlines, adding that his priority is to retain and create jobs for Queenslanders. The QIC is tipped to join one of the consortiums that are bidding for Virgin, and Dick says its investment could take the form of a direct equity stake, a loan, guarantee or other financial incentives.

CORPORATES
VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX VAH, QUEENSLAND. TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS

Nine wants tech giants to pay $600m to media

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Original article by Max Mason, John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 14-May-20

The Australian Competition & Consumer Commission’s digital platforms inquiry concluded that Facebook and Google accounted for about $6bn of online advertising revenue in Australia in 2018. Nine Entertainment chairman Peter Costello says that based on this figure, Facebook and Google derive about 10 per cent of their annual revenue from news content. As a result, he believes that they should pay about $600m a year into a fund for Australian news publishers. Costello adds that other countries may adopt Australia’s policy of a mandatory revenue-sharing code of conduct if it proves to be effective.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION

Nine expects more from less after Jones

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Original article by Steve Jackson, Lilly Vitorovich
The Australian – Page: 6 : 14-May-20

Veteran radio broadcaster Alan Jones has dominated Sydney’s breakfast slot for many years, boasting a 17.9 per cent audience share in April. Industry insiders question whether Ben Fordham will retain Jones’s loyal audience when the latter bows out on 29 May. There is also speculation that 2GB will retrench much of Jones’s production team, which would compound the challenges that Fordham will face. However, he may attract new advertisers and a younger audience. Fordham will have some time to settle into the breakfast slot, given that ratings are on hold until September due to the pandemic.

CORPORATES
2GB, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC